July 07, 2008
Virtual Science for Australian Drought Policy Review
Australia could experience drought twice as often and the events will be twice as severe within 20 to 30 years, according to a new Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO report.
Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Tony Burke yesterday released the report commissioned by the Rudd Government as part of a review of national drought policy.
According to the media release:
"The overall review, announced in April, will help prepare farmers, rural communities and Australia’s primary industries for the challenges of climate change.
The Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO climatic report on future drought events – the first of its kind in Australia – will be considered as part of the drought policy review.
Key findings of the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO report include:
Under a high scenario, droughts could occur twice as often, cover twice the area and be more severe in key agricultural production areas;
The current definition of ‘Exceptional Circumstances’, which defines areas eligible to apply for Federal Government drought assistance, is out-of-date;
Temperatures currently defined as ‘exceptional’ are likely to occur, on average, once in every two years in many key agricultural production areas within the next 20 to 30 years;
We need better ways of getting information about climate change preparedness to farmers."
So it seems the government is reverting to scenario-modelling to determine its drought policy and will focus on a worst case scenario by way of a high emissions scenario.
There is really nothing new in this approach, indeed in November 2004 then NSW Premier Bob Carr released a report by CSIRO entitled 'Climate Change in New South Wales' alerting us to the possiblity of more frequent droughts. Given this report was also based on scenario-modelling I suggested at the time in my The Land column that the CSIRO could have spiced the report up even more by scenario-modelling a war and a volcanic eruption into it.
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The Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO report ‘An assessment of the impact of climate change on the nature and frequency of exceptional climatic events’ is available at www.daff.gov.au/droughtpolicyreview.
Posted by jennifer at 08:24 AM | Comments (32)
March 22, 2008
Climate Change, Growing Populations and Political Concerns are Prompting a Fresh Look at Desalination
Water has always been a volatile topic in Australia, the world's driest inhabited continent, but the political row that broke out last week was perhaps surprising. Protesters are complaining that a planned desalination facility outside Melbourne, Victoria, will generate too much freshwater.
As Neil Rankine ( a spokesman for protest group Your Water Your Say) and his supporters gear up for a new round of protests, Melbourne could do worse than look west to the city of Perth. Its US$329-million desalination plant, which opened in 2006, has won grudging approval. In fact, a second, US$811-million plant is now planned. The secret: renewable energy — the power comes mainly from a wind farm, and up to 90% of it can be recycled by energy-recovery devices.
From Nature News, 19th March: 'Water: Purification with a pinch of salt'
Posted by Paul at 12:42 AM | Comments (13) | TrackBack
February 26, 2008
Beyond Media Headlines: The Key Issues for the Macquarie Marshes
Media reports yesterday** correctly drew attention to the fact that there are levy banks within the Macquarie Marshes and that they are depriving key wetland areas of water.
But the stories went on to lump upstream legal and planned irrigation development that makes allocations for environmental flows with legal and illegal levies on grazing land within the marshes. Some levies within the marshes are currently blocking designated environmental flow water from reaching the northern nature reserve.
Some of the media reports suggest a need for more studies, but the solution may simply be to bulldoze levies so that environmental flow can get through to the nature reserve.
Other issues within the marshes that require action, rather than more studies include:
1. Preventing the trampling of bird nesting sites by cattle, and
2. Addressing the general issues of overgrazing.
The Macquarie Marshes is a large non-termial wetland in central western New South Wales covering about 200,000 hectares. Most of this area (88 percent) is privately owned and grazed. There are two publicly-owned nature reserves where cattle are excluded and which are Ramsar-listed, meaning they are considered of international importance for migratory bird species.
The most definitive recent publication on the ecology of the Macquarie Marshes is:
The Macquarie Marshes: An Ecological History
by Gillian Hogendyk
IPA Occasional Papers
http://www.ipa.org.au/publications/publisting_detail.asp?pubid=683
You can see pictures of overgrazing at this blog post:
Cattle killing the Macquarie Marshes, 21October 2005
http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/000949.html
There are pictures of the illegal levies here:
More Water Won't Save the Macquarie Marshes, 28 March 2006
http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/001282.html
And for more discussion read:
Three Pressing Issues for the Macquarie Marshes, 13 July 2006
http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/001481.html
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** Yesterday’s stories include:
Report reveals illegal Murray-Darling irrigation. By environment reporter Sarah Clarke
Scientists say the flood plains are being sucked dry and there is no legislation in place to stop further development.
A new report has exposed major flaws in the management of key rivers and flood plains along the Murray Darling Basin. Satellite images of a key wetland in north-western New South Wales reveal more than 2,000 kilometres of earthworks have carved up the waterway. While some of the channels and levees may have been authorised, others are considered illegal and are diverting water into irrigation and farming.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/02/25/2171517.htm
NSW vows crackdown on Murray-Darling earthworks
The New South Wales Government says it will crack down on unauthorised earthworks in the Macquarie Marshes in the state's north-west. A report by the University of NSW found that more than 2,000 kilometres of channels, levees and dams are carving up the Macquarie Marshes and diverting water into irrigation and grazing areas.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/02/25/2171663.htm
Wetlands in a flap after the rains
February 25, 2008
Birds are winning the battle of the marshes, writes Daniel Lewis.
Wading through Monkeygar Swamp, with magpie geese honking in the sky above, even a vicious bite from the odd leech can't wipe the smile off Ray Jones's face.
There's enough water for significant bird breeding in his beloved Macquarie Marshes for the first time since 2000, and the National Parks field officer is on a high after depressingly dry years.
"When you see these geese taking off you can't help but smile," Jones says. A fellow parks employee recently told him: "This is the first time I have seen you smiling for years."
http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/wetlands-in-a-flap-after-the-rains/2008/02/24/1203788147733.html
'Water theft' threatens Murray-Darling
By DANIEL LEWIS & MARIAN WILKINSON - Australia
Monday, 25 February 2008
A MAZE of levee banks, channels and dams is stealing water from the state's flood plains and threaten to undermine the $10 billion Murray-Darling Basin rescue plan.
A year-long study by a leading wetlands expert also says environmental water stolen on the flood plain that is home to the iconic Macquarie Marshes has already caused enormous environmental damage.
The report says inappropriate development has continued for decades…
http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/river-rescue-under-threat/2008/02/24/1203788147679.html
Flood plain development 'stealing water'
February 25, 2008 - 6:35AM
Levee banks, channels and dams are stealing water from NSW flood plains and threatening to undermine the $10-billion Murray-Darling Basin rescue plan.
The authors of a report on flood plain development on the lower Macquarie River say state and federal governments have turned a blind eye to water theft through flood plain harvesting, Fairfax reported on Monday.
http://news.smh.com.au/flood-plain-development-stealing-water/20080225-1ugc.html
'Water theft' threatens Murray-Darling
By DANIEL LEWIS & MARIAN WILKINSON - Australia
Monday, 25 February 2008
A maze of levee banks, channels and dams is stealing water from NSW's flood plains and threaten to undermine the $10 billion Murray-Darling Basin rescue plan.
A year-long study by a leading wetlands expert also says environmental water stolen on the flood plain that is home to the iconic Macquarie Marshes has already caused enormous environmental damage.
…. SOURCE: Sydney Morning Herald.
http://www.farmonline.com.au/news_daily.asp?ag_id=48948
Posted by jennifer at 10:04 AM | TrackBack
November 16, 2007
Murray River Tributary Reduced to Billabongs
While the Murray River is flowing strongly despite the drought, many of its tributaries are drying up.
Yesterday I visited the Wakool River with Wakool Landholders Association Chairman John Lolicato.
He showed me a spot downstream of Gee Gee bridge where there is still water in deep holes. A bit upstream the river has been reduced to billabongs and further upstream in Possum forest some of the billabongs have dried up.
Downstream of Gee Gee bridge
A billabong that was Wakool river
John has moved some Murray Cod from drying billabongs to larger water holes.
John looking for some water and stranded fish
Also yesterday, the NSW Minister for Climate Change, Environment and Water Phil Koperberg announced that a pulse of water would be released into the Wakool River to provide stock and domestic water and environmental benefits.
Mr Koperberg acknowledged that the Wakool River had not had flows for months due to the severe and extended drought.
“The diversion of water into these systems will provide landholders with access to stock and domestic water for the first time in months, help improve water quality and provide significant environmental benefits to stressed populations of native fish and other aquatic species,” he said.
“The water cannot be used for irrigation and additional deliveries for irrigation are not viable as they would exacerbate additional water losses that cannot be supported.”
Posted by jennifer at 07:10 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack
November 07, 2007
Rain Misses Murray-Darling Catchment
The heavy rain which has fallen across southern Australia in the past few days and caused flooding in parts of Victoria, has hardly made a dent in the record low storage levels of the Murray-Darling system.
ABC News: 'Murray-Darling still in trouble despite welcome rain'
Thanks to Luke Walker for the link
Posted by Paul at 07:04 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack
November 05, 2007
Rain Fails to Boost Confidence in the Future of Farming
Rain may have fallen over parts of south-eastern Australia over the weekend - in some places to the point of flooding - but the confidence of farmers in the future of their businesses has fallen to its lowest level this year, results from Westpac and Charles Sturt University reveals.
ABC News: 'Farmer confidence hits yearly low as dry drags on'
Thanks to Luke Walker for the link.
Posted by Paul at 08:29 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack
November 02, 2007
Drought and the '07 Election
The Coalition will not fund future drought preparedness measures as part of its agricultural election policy, due out in a fortnight, but will stick with its existing drought assistance measures despite calls for change from State Governments and the National Farmers Federation.
farmonline: 'Election '07: Drought preparedness not in Coalition ag policy'
Posted by Paul at 05:51 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
Special Drought Statement from BoM
For large parts of southern and eastern Australia, dry conditions have now persisted since October
1996, a total of eleven years. For some areas, the accumulated total rainfall deficit over this period
now exceeds a full year’s normal rain.
For the agriculturally important Murray-Darling Basin, however, October 2007 marks the sixth
anniversary of lower than average rainfall totals, with the November 2001 to October 2007 period
being its equal driest such six-year period on record.
This extreme dry period for the Murray-Darling Basin has also been accompanied by high
temperatures, exacerbating the low rainfall. Both daytime maximum and daily mean temperatures
for the six years from November 2001 to October 2007 have surpassed the previous records by a
considerable margin.
Read the 6 page pdf:
Six years of widespread drought in southern and eastern Australia
November 2001–October 2007
Issued 1st November 2007
National Climate Centre
Posted by Paul at 05:46 PM | Comments (23) | TrackBack
October 26, 2007
Drought-Proofing Australia
As we have seen over the past year, drought can take an emotional, as well as financial toll on farmers, placing individuals, families and local communities under extraordinary stress.
Helping people cope under such pressure is essential but the challenges of a changing climate demand a visionary new approach in the way Australia deals with drought.
Read the rest of the ABC News article, 'Drought: secure today, but prepare for tomorrow.'
Thanks to Luke Walker for this article.
Posted by Paul at 10:20 PM | Comments (16) | TrackBack
September 27, 2007
Failed Wheat Crops and a Note from Bill Kininmonth
When somebody is down on their luck they are fair game for getting a cheap swipe. Drought continues [in Australia] and so the rural community are in the gunsights. It is the farmer's environmentally unfriendly land management practices that are contributing to global warming, so it is said . It might never rain again! Repent and implement green-friendly practices (shoot the stock and plant native trees) and all will be well!
The drought is continuing despite the earlier predictions that a La Nina is with us and should have brought good winter rains. Obviously man-made global warming.
Unfortunately folklore highlights the 1982-83 El Nino when Malcolm Fraser called an early election during a drought, he lost the election to Bob Hawke and immediately the drought broke with good late autumn and winter rains. Bob Hawke was thenceforth recognised as having divine qualities.
The truth is rather more prosaic. El Nino droughts often break in autumn as they are followed by a rapidly developing La Nina, but not always. If the break does not come in autumn then the next likely period is late spring after the equinox. The current La Nina commenced as a rather weak event but is gathering strength. The Climate Prediction Center in Washington is backing its development. There has been a very active summer monsoon over Asia reflecting the benefits of the La Nina event. A late spring break for Australia after the equinox remains a good prospect.
Rather than further scaring the rural communities with fairy-tales about man-made global warming our communitiy leaders would do better to acquaint themselves with useful knowledge about climate and its prospects and reassure the farmers and their families that climate is only following a well-worn cycle. It would seem that government assistance is available as support and the prospects for rain are not hopeless. Life on the land is tough and survival depends on optimism grounded in fact, not pessimism enhanced by fairy stories.
Bill Kininmonth
Jennifer Marohasy took this photograph yesterday (September 26, 2007), it was one of many failed winter wheat crops that she saw north of Dubbo in central western New South Wales
Posted by jennifer at 06:15 AM | Comments (27) | TrackBack
March 16, 2007
More on Australia's Water Crisis and Climate Change, This Sunday on 'Sunday'
I really wanted to walk out of the channel 9 television studio in Sydney last Thursday.
I was there because the 'Sunday' program had flown me all the way from Brisbane to be a part of a ‘water forum’ to discuss ‘the water crisis’.
Also there, on the very large forum panel, was federal Environment Minister, Malcolm Turnbull, Shadow Minister for Infrastructure, Anthony Albanese, Wentworth Group Member and Water Commission Commissioner, Professor Peter Cullen, Australian Conservation Foundation Executive Director, Don Henry and the list went on to also include Laurie Arthur from the Rice Growers Association and someone from the Bureau of Meteorology and of course there was Dr Mike Young from CSIRO and a few more.
I almost forgot. They also had Queensland Premier, Peter Beattie, on a video link up from Brisbane.
Before I could get a word in edge ways, Premier Beattie and Professor Cullen with some help from Minister Turnbull and others, had spun the usual story including that due to climate change, the Murray Darling Basin, not to mention the rest of Australia is in the grip of a water crisis.
I don't dispute that there is a water crisis, but I do dispute that it has much to do with climate change.
Minister Turnbull had also falsely claimed that Australian irrigators are inefficient and need reforming and Don Henry had managed to explain that the Murray River is in ruin. Mr Henry has been making the same claim over and over for about 10 years.
I had naïvely thought it wouldn’t unravel as such.
It was, after all, only last year that 'Sunday' ran a feature story on the Murray River explaining that there was no environmental crisis and no salinity crisis. One of their film crews had traveled the length of the river with Ross Coulthart uncovering the extent of the 'honesty crisis' – as I described it at the time.
Just a few weeks ago, in advance of the water forum, I had sent more information through to channel 9 explaining that despite all the more recent hype, the river is still doing OK. I also sent them through Bureau of Meteorology graphs, including a graph showing that there has not been a gradual long-term decline in rainfall in the Murray Darling Basin, as is so often repeatedly and falsely suggested in the mainstream media.
But this time most of the evidence was just ignored.
The shows host, Ellen Fanning, let Professor Cullen and others repeatedly confuse inflows with rainfall, drought with climate change and suggest the new $10 billion National Plan for Water Security could solve "the water crisis".
While Ellen was in complete control of where the cameras were pointing when, I did manage to make a few points in response to Premier Beattie’s claim that southeast Queensland’s water crisis was the fault of climate change and wait for it, local government, and I also managed to correct Professor Cullen when he suggested there was a direct link between the 30 percent increase in global levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide and the current water crisis.
They filmed for 90 minutes and will edit this down to just 30 minutes. So, my efforts may have all been in vain.
There is ample opportunity, thanks in particular to Professor Cullen and Minister Turnbull, for the program to really hone the doomsayers message that we have a ‘climate crisis’ and that the government’s $10 billion plan can really fix it.
But I’m hopeful, if not optimistic, they might find a spot for some balance.
Anyway, the ‘water forum’ on the ‘water crisis’ should screen this Sunday on 'Sunday' some time between 9 and 11 am.
Posted by jennifer at 01:45 PM | Comments (55)
November 09, 2006
Possums Killing River Red Gums: A Note from Michael O'Brien
Dear Jennifer,
I was reading your blogs criticising the misrepresentation of the facts surrounding the Murray river floodplains and death of river red gums. I own a property on the Murray river floodplains, downstream of Echuca. My property has river red gum wetlands that have quite naturally not recieved any flooding since 1995.
For the last 15 years my red gum wetland and many other red gum wetlands in the region have suffered massive decline in tree health and in some instances all of the trees have been killed. It is changing the look of the landscape and is quite obviously a regional catastrophe.
But what is the cause? Ask any of the experts and they insist it is "drought", but in my district the average rain for the past 15 years has only been slightly below the long term average and in reality the redgums have probably had as much flooding as they ever did in dry periods.
The actual cause of the tree death is something much more cute and cuddly, common brush-tailed possum's. Brush-tailed possums are abundant in these hollow redgums. At times I have spotted up to 15 mature possums in one tree. Each summer the trees grow a few leaves and then for the remainder of the year the possums strip them clean. The trees can only take about three years of this kind of constant bombardment before they die. From the 200 large trees within my wetland at least 75% have died in the last 10 years, and the remainder are in poor health.
Prior to European settlement in the area, the local Aboriginals heavilly utilized brush-tailed possums for food, clothing etcetera. So much so that one of the early pastoralists in the area referred to them as the "possum-eaters".
As an experiment I possum guarded a number of random trees last November.
The following photograph I took this morning of one of the possum- guarded trees. The trees in the photograph were all in similar health at the time of guarding last November.
Possum attack is a widespread problem in the Murray flood plains now that possums are unable to be utilized and managed, and probably explains a lot of the premature death of red gums that people are witnessing in this natural dry period.
Regards,
Michael O'Brien
Posted by jennifer at 04:12 PM | Comments (21)
November 07, 2006
Key Outcomes: Summit on the Southern Murray Darling Basin
The Commonwealth and Governments of New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Queensland agreed or noted at this morning's water summit on the Southern Murray Darling Basin (MDB):
1. The need for a shared understanding of the likely water availability over the next year and a half.
2. The need for an informed whole of Basin approach to be developed collaboratively, not by jurisdictions acting without regard to the consequences for other States.
3. Establish a group of high-level officials drawn from First Ministers' Departments and the MDB Commission to examine contingency planning to secure urban and town supplies during 2007-08. This group will report to First Ministers by 15 December 2006.
4. Accelerate the implementation of key aspects of the NWI, especially on water trading, overallocation, water accounting and data sharing. Ensure that permanent interstate trading will commence in the southern MDB States by 1 January 2007 as recommended by the National Water Commission. New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Queensland also agreed in substance to accept the advice from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission on exit fees.
5. Not intervene in Snowy Hydro Ltd commercial arrangements this year.
6. Commission the CSIRO to report progressively by the end of 2007 on sustainable yields of surface and groundwater systems within the MDB, including an examination of assumptions about sustainable yield in light of changes in climate and other issues.
7. The Commonwealth will process speedily its response to major projects under the Australian Government Water Fund.
8. The Commonwealth indicated it was providing over $2.3 billion for a wide range of drought assistance in EC-affected areas, and announced a new initiative (costing approximately $210 million over two years) to extend income support and interest rate subsidies to the owners of small businesses that receive 70 per cent of their income from farm businesses.
9. The States have agreed to pay 10 per cent of interest costs under the Commonwealth's small business announcement. The States have also agreed to consider a Commonwealth proposal that they follow the lead of Victoria in providing a 50 per cent rebate for municipal and shire rates to eligible recipients, and also to waive or rebate water charges (or equivalents thereof) in EC declared areas where water allocations have been substantially reduced.
10. It has already been agreed that water and climate change would be items for consideration at the next COAG meeting.
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I wrote a blog piece earlier today entitled 'Murray River: Last Year Biggest Environmental Flow, This Year Water Crisis' on the water shortage issue.
Posted by jennifer at 03:14 PM | Comments (34) | TrackBack
Murray River: Last Year Biggest Environmental Flow, This Year Water Crisis
The Prime Minister, John Howard, has called a summit to discuss the water crisis in the Murray-Darling Basin.
The meeting, being held as I write this blog, was apparently triggered by the NSW government decision to suspend water trading on the Murray and Murrumbidgee rivers and the low state of the dams in New South Wales and Victoria.
According to Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull, the big dams on the river will be just about empty by Autumn if it doesn't rain.
Leader of the Australian Greens Bob Brown is claiming there has been a problem for years, the government has done nothing, and "seventy per cent of the river red gums along the Murray are either dead or dying."
There are a few dead red gums along the Murray. But anyone who lives along the river, regularly visits the river, or saw the recent ABC series 'Two Men in a Tinnie' would know most of the river red gums along both the Darling and Murray Rivers are very much alive. Another huge porkie from Mr Brown! Another piece of misleading, probably originally from the MDBC.
What seems to have been forgotten in all the recent hand wringing is that just last October the NSW and Victorian governments – the same governments who this year are complaining their dams are empty – made the world’s largest delivery of environmental water letting the equivalent of a Sydney Harbor of water flood the Barmah-Millewa red gum forest which straddles the Murray River upstream of Echuca.
According to a Victorian government report on water operations: "The joint release saw 513 gigalitres of water delivered to the forest and the inundation of over half of the forest floodplain, resulting in greatly improved condition for wetland vegetation and breeding activity for key wetland fauna. Wetland vegetation, including moira grass and the threatened wavy marshwort, responded with significantly improved condition and the flooding waters provided for new growth and canopy regeneration in stressed river red gums. The release also triggered large reproductive events in important native fish species such as golden perch and the threatened silver perch as well as in many water bird species, including the great egret, darters, spoonbills, grebes, ibis and cormorants, and the critically endangered intermediate egret."
All this during one of the worst droughts on record!
Then there is the water being sucked up from regrowth following the January 2003 bushfires in the upper catchment, new plantations, groundwater licences being activated by farmers who can now trade that water, improved on-farm water use efficiency and recycling some of this in place because of a past fear of rising groundwater tables*, water being evaporated by the Murray Darling Basin Commission's salt interception schemes and low rainfall ...and it is not that surprising that the region has a chronic water shortage.
But rather than do a proper water audit and work out the relative contribution of these factors which have probably all contributed to the current problem, governments and many key commentators keep blaming climate change. Yet the rainfall record for the MDB doesn’t show an abnormal decline.**
Rainfall record for the Murray Darling Basin from 1900 to the end of 2005.
South Australian Premier Mike Rann said he would use today's summit to ensure water reached the bottom of the Murray-Darling basin. Yeah, many South Australians see the river as nothing more than an channel for getting water from the Hume and Dartmouth dams to Adelaide and their wine grape growers.
But sorry Mr Rann, noone can ensure that their will be water for South Australia if the dams run dry.
In advance of the summit, the National Farmers Federation Executive Director, Ben Fargher, put out a media release saying, “As a first priority, we need to ensure that towns which support regional communities have certainty over water supply. "There must also be a clear strategy to effectively manage core breeding stock, permanent plantings and other production issues in order to protect Australia's agricultural base through this unprecedented drought."
But that’s also impossible Mr Fargher if there is no water.
If the Murray runs dry next year it would be devastating for farmers and rural communities that draw their water from the river, but it would not be a disaster for the environment. Australian rivers run dry. Water levels in the Murray River have been artificially high so far this drought, because of the dams and weirs.
The Murray River at Riversdale in 1914.
The Murray River at Riversdale early this year.
Here's some really ridiculous commentary from an article in last week's The Age to illustrate the extent to which our politicians and environmentalists seem to not really care or understand the issue. They don't seem to understand that if you don't have any water, there will be none to save, and none for the environment. The article follows an announcement by Mr Turnbull inviting farmers and irrigators to participate in an "excess water scheme".
"The scheme will provide an incentive for those with water entitlements in the southern Murray-Darling Basin to cut their water use.Farmers could switch from flood-irrigating an orchard to using water drippers, for example, and sell the water they saved from their entitlements to the Federal Government.
... Peter Cosier, from the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists, slammed the tender, claiming it was "too complex" and "too bureaucratic".
Mr Cosier said Australia was "way behind" its target to return 500 billion litres to the Murray River by 2009. "We don't have time to muck around with inefficient grant schemes because they are not delivering water for the environment."
... Opposition environment spokesman Anthony Albanese said that while Labor supported buying water, the Murray needed water now, not in 2009.
... Meanwhile, the Murray-Darling Water Crisis Management Council warned that the Hume Dam - a source of water to many towns and now at only 11 per cent capacity - would run dry in 24 weeks unless all environmental flows down the Murray were suspended."
No Mr Albanese, the river doesn't need water now, it's all the industries that have grown up along the river that need water now. Without the dams and weirs built for these same industries the river would have already run dry.
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* I explain how past policies driven by a fear of rising groundwater and spreading salinity may have artificially dehydrated the landscape in a piece I recently wrote for OLO: http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=5076 .
** I have recently explained that blaming the current drought on climate change is indeed drawing a long bow in a piece for the Courier Mail: http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,20678328-27197,00.html
Posted by jennifer at 09:20 AM | Comments (60)
October 27, 2006
But Farmers Are Not Meant To Grow Crops During Drought
According to M. Chalmers from Bundaberg, "It has taken a long time, many years in fact, but the Government has finally admitted that Australia is suffering from a severe drought." So begins this letter to the editor in Queensland's rural weekly The Queensland Country Life. The letter goes on to explain that "lack of rain and water for irrigation means we have no way of growing crops or raising livestock." Well yes, that's how it is in a drought.
In fact, perhaps the take away message from this letter and everything else in the three rural papers I read this morning, is that while the government is crying drought and farmers are happy to pick up the millions and millions of dollars being thrown their way as 'drought assistance', some farmers haven't really thought through the consequence of drought. It actually means that you shouldn't be growing crops and it might be worth destocking rather than bringing those heifers into calf again.
Along the Murray River rice growers know that if there's no water allocation they can't grow a crop ... and most of them don't expect to. But interestingly in places like South Australia, where irrigators have mostly planted perennial crops including wine grapes and almonds ...well they need water every year.
I guess this is why there is so much anguish when allocations to South Australia are cut to just 70 percent because of the drought. That's right, South Austraian irrigators are getting 70 percent of their water allocation during what many commentators are claiming to be the worst drought on record.
According to ABC Online, "SA Minister for the River Murray, Karlene Maywald, says the situation is rapidly deteriorating, and that she will announce the new [70 percent] allocation figure early next month [down from 80 percent], but for now irrigators need to understand the severity of the situation."
So how severe is the situation, really?
I've made some comment on this, and also the idea that wind and sun farms will stop climate change, in a piece published today by On Line Opinion:http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=5076 .
Posted by jennifer at 10:42 AM | Comments (25) | TrackBack
October 19, 2006
Growing Biodiesel In Northern Australia: Roger Kalla
Outspoken liberal senator Bill Heffernan has suggested that Australia's farmers move North to the tropical parts of Australia where there is more water.
In two recent blog posts at the GMO Pundit Website Roger Kalla asks: What would farmers grow in northern Australia?
In the first post he considers soybeans for biodiesel and animal feed: http://gmopundit.blogspot.com/2006/10/go-north-young-man-go-north-cropping.html .
And in the second cotton for biodiesel: http://gmopundit.blogspot.com/2006/10/another-biodiesel-crop-for-northern.html .
Posted by jennifer at 01:33 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
October 18, 2006
Charting a New Road from Coorain: On Drought in Australia
The Australian Prime Minister, John Howard, has just announced a $350 million extension to the government's drought relief measures and for the first time offering the same aid to Australian irrigators as well crop and dairy farmers.
Farmers become eligible if the drought is a one in 20 or 25-year event and results in a substantial downturn in earnings for more than 12 months.* The assistance, known as exceptional circumstance (EC) assistance, can come as a dole payment and/or interest rate subsidy. There are various criteria that must be met including that the farmer derives at least 50 percent of income from the farm.
Since 2001 the federal government has provided $1.2 billion to more than 53,000 farm families in EC assistance.
With the new announcment 18 of the 65 regions already drought declared will get an 18 month extension in interest rates subsidies and other direct relief from end of this year to the middle of 2008.*
There are those who argue that farmers should not receive drought aid. I received the following note from a reader:
"So why should we support a safety net for our rural producers. Businesses in the city just go broke and are not bailed out. Is agriculture about capitalising gains and socialising losses. Are these some of the reasons:• the regional economic effect of drought can distroy whole rural towns and regional communities
• rural Australia is worth preserving because it is the only part of Australia that looks and feels Australian.
• food production so special security case
• national ethos identifies with the bush
• global markets aren't level anyway (EU and US agricultural subsidies) so this helps even things up for the worst climate variability in the world
• drought assistance is not seen as a subsidy in world trade talks
• Australian farmers are still transitioning to self reliance model – need time to adjust
• tax system still not optimal for climate risk management – change June to December, more income equalisation ideas
• urbanites expecting unrealistic environmental dividends from the bush that add to costs
• animal welfare
• human welfare
• high interest rates need subsidy because high rate is due to mining and urban prosperity both of which force up rural wages
• resources in the bush are sticky - market reacts slowly, so subsidy can ease pain
• drought subsidies make the coal industry feel better or at least might stop farmers suing coal miners.
• the National party has to be seen to have a winner or you end up with more extreme parties emerging, for example One Nation."
And I received the following note from another reader:
"What have lessons have Australians learnt from drought. And what new lessons await if we entering a new world of climate change or even experiencing for the first time natural variability unknown to Europeans. Do we need a new road to follow?The Road from Coorain is an autobiographical story of Jill Ker Conway's isolated childhood and youth in Australia. In 1930 Jill Ker Conway's newly married parents bought the remote sheep station of Coorain. When Jill reached the age of eight, Coorain was struck by a devastating series of drought years in which most of the Kers' sheep were lost.
Jill's father died when she was at age 11 (suicide or fixing a pipe in a farm dam), and the grief-stricken family, overwhelmed by the series of disasters, left their beloved home and moved to the city of Sydney. A good call for Jill who became a famous academic and historian. But many families don’t move on.
Perhaps the stoicism of the Australian character is too well entrenched for the good of man and beast.
Drought feeding of livestock doesn’t pay for big droughts. It can lead to unmanageable equity losses, the property and the family.
Of course not all droughts are caused by lack of rainfall. Small property sizes, debt and over-expectations from good seasons can lead to overgrazing. Overgrazing can lead to environmental degradation of the land, soil loss, increase in woody weeds and unpalatable grasses and long-term loss of carrying capacity.
Man made “drought” occurs when stocking rate exceeds carrying capacity (i.e. drought is not only rainfall-induced)
According to one state government:
Humans control stocking rate.
Nature controls carrying capacity.
Success in drought is achieved in the same way as at other times (e.g. using sound business management principles).
Have a plan.
Move early !
Watch out for unmanageable equity losses.
Look on mistakes as learning opportunities.
Preserve the resource base for financial recovery and future generations.All good sound stuff but not enough.
Over the last decade most state departments of agriculture have introduced climate risk programs with information about inherent climate variability and the use of seasonal climate forecasts (e.g. the SOI – Southern Oscillation Index which is a measure of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation). The Bureau of Meteorology and DAFF have facilitated that process further towards a theme of “self reliance”.
The idea is to give landholders an edge to see early warning signs and make decisions such as: sell livestock, plant less crop area, select different crop varieties or decide not to heavily invest in fertiliser and pesticide inputs.
But seasonal climate forecasting has at best 60-70% accuracy. Minority odds have to come up eventually and the forecast will be seen to be “wrong” in some years.
Lesson learned on Queensland's Darling Downs include that out of 10 years – 4 break even, 3 lose money and 3 make a profit.
Some producers access income equalisation deposits to smooth out the tax stream but how much more is needed?
Should the tax year be moved from June to December. June is often not a good time to be pressured into decisions.
Protection of the resource base isn’t as simple as it seems either. South West Queensland graziers can protect the resource only to have it 'finished off' by kangaroos late in the drought. And the possibility of dry seasons can make graziers very hesitant to renovate pastures with fire which inevitably leads to woody weed buildup and/or woodland thickening.
Loss of productive pasture area then compounds with economic necessity to pressure the resource further. And how much green sympathy will you get?
So our future farmers have to get smarter – have farm business plans, use forecasts, more efficient agronomy, hedge on futures markets and develop a diversified income stream all while coping with a declining terms of trade and increasing environmental demands from an increasingly urban population.
Climate change may require a rethink on what a viable living area is, whether to install irrigation, and for long term industries - what variety of heat sensitive long-term orchard and vine crops to invest in. Some landholders can adapt by growing niche crops like Sandalwood but obviously not all.
But big multi-year droughts are in the end tediously dry. No amount of technology can compensate for zero water. And you don’t need a forecast to tell you you’re in a drought.
But it’s lack of money that finishes off farming dynasties. So the real answer is to have off-farm non-agricultural diversified income or one of the family working in town or on other properties elsewhere.
Today’s newspapers are suggesting farmers move north to where the water resources and rainfall are still abundant. A new environmental battle ground? Fleeing from Australia Felix?
Do we now have the technology to beat the heat, the insects, the isolation, the cost of shipped inputs and distance to market which comes with agriculture in northern Australia. If farmers are to move north do we need new infrastructure including a great port to Asia at Wyndham or the rail line extended from Katherine to Kununurra?
Sir Sidney Kidman had a view of drought proofing his operation by owning properties all the way from Victoria to the Kimberley. But El Nino can potentially take out all that country. Perhaps in the 21st century we can realise that dream for agriculture and pastoralism but only by doing a global Kidman and having on/off operations in Australia and Argentina thereby oscillating in harmony with El Nino. Then perhaps we can truly be Kings in Grass Castles."
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* Some states, for example Queensland and NSW also have their own schemes ontop of the federal goverrnment's EC. Queensland uses a drought 1 in every 10 years as basis for assistance declaration so farmers could be picking up EC assistance almost 25 percent of the time? so that state could be providing assistance 22% of the time when you factor in what rainfall it takes to revoke a drought declaration.
* Here's the latest map with EC boundaries.
Posted by jennifer at 09:24 AM | Comments (20) | TrackBack