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August 31, 2008
Greenland's Ice Follows Dramatic Fall in Carbon Dioxide Levels?
According to a recent paper** published in the journal Nature, only a dramatic fall in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are able to explain the transition from the mostly ice-free Greenland of three million years ago, to the ice-covered Greenland of today.
I am not convinced, but anyway, the paper begs the question, why did the purported elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations fall to levels similar to the pre-industrial era?
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** Late Pliocene Greenland glaciation controlled by a decline in atmospheric CO2 levels, Nature 454, 1102-1105 (28 August 2008), by Daniel J. Lunt, Gavin L. Foster, Alan M. Haywood and & Emma J. Stone.
Read the University of Bristol media release here.
Posted by jennifer at 06:53 PM | Comments (28) | TrackBack
Time for a Counter-Consensus: Christopher Booker
In today's UK Telegraph Christopher Booker has commented:
"As the estimated cost of measures proposed by politicians to 'combat global warming' soars ever higher – such as the International Energy Council's $45 trillion – 'fighting climate change' has become the single most expensive item on the world's political agenda.
"As Senators Obama and McCain vie with the leaders of the European Union to promise 50, 60, even 80 per cent cuts in 'carbon emissions', it is clear that to realise even half their imaginary targets would necessitate a dramatic change in how we all live, and a drastic reduction in living standards.
"All this makes it rather important to know just why our politicians have come to believe that global warming is the most serious challenge confronting mankind, and just how reliable is the evidence for the theory on which their policies are based...
Read more here.
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The 'consensus' on climate change is a catastrophe in itself
By Christopher Brooker, Telegraph.co.uk
Last Updated: 12:01am BST 31/08/2008
Posted by jennifer at 06:20 PM | Comments (22) | TrackBack
August 29, 2008
Causal Linkage between Carbon Dioxide and Global Warming (Part 4)
On the evening of Sunday, August 10, I asked for citations of research papers in reputable scientific journals that examine the causal link between anthropogenic carbon dioxide and global warming and that quantified the extent of this warming.** In most areas of science, when a clearly articulated theory dominates, a student can nominate several seminal papers that have influenced and directed thinking in that area.
Many people believe increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide lead to increases in temperature. This can be demonstrated in a laboratory, but when you scale up laboratory experiments to the real world, what happens? We know from ice cores that global temperatures have decreased in the past even as carbon dioxide has continued to rise. There are some so-called skeptics who claim that in the real world the radiation forcing of carbon dioxide is overwhelmed by the more powerful constraints of evaporation cooling from the tropical oceans.
I cross-posted my request for papers as a comment on John Quiggin’s blog as I was interested to see what those who follow the issue and generally subscribe to AWG theory would suggest by way of best papers. The next morning my request turned into a bet when Michael Duffy offered to put up $1,000.
By Monday evening the thread at Professor Quiggin’s blog had thrown up three papers that the commentators suggested potentially provided explanation of the causal link and a quantification of the extent of warming. Interestingly one of them was published as long ago as 1938 – perhaps it was a seminal paper.
The papers are:
1. Callendar, G.S., 1938. The artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on temperature. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., Vol 64, 223–237.
2. Hofmann, D.J., J. H. Butler, E. J . Dlugokencky, J . W. Elkins, K. Masarie, S. A. Montzka and P. Tans, 2006. The role of carbon dioxide in climate forcing from 1979 to 2004: Introduction of the Annual Greenhouse Gas Index, Tellus B, Vol 58, 614-619.
3. Crowley, T. 2000. Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years. Science Vol 289: 270-277.
I have posted comment on two of the papers concluding they do not fit the criteria (part 2 and part 3 of this series of blog posts) and I understand that the author of one of the papers, Thomas Crowley, posted comment at John Quiggins site acknowledging that his paper did not deal with causation.
This is a key point acknowledged by Professor Quiggin in the thread at his blog, though he initially went as far as to claim that there are “hundreds of papers on both the causal link and the question of sensitivity” but could only cite a few papers which he suggested dealt with the issue of sensitivity later in that same thread.
While many scientists would claim you can’t deal with sensitivity if you haven’t established causality, this is attempted in climate science including by correlating output from computer models. Aynsley Kellow has explained this as a technique of post-normal science in his book, Science and Public Policy: The Virtuous Corruption of Virtual Environmental Science (Edward Elgar, 2007).
The 1938 paper by G.S. Callendar is the closest of the three to fitting the criteria in that it attempts to answer the types of questions that a scientist would need to consider if a credible link is to be established between anthropogenic carbon dioxide and warming in the real world. However, it is clear from the discussion section within the paper that Mr Callendar’s findings were not peer reviewed, and furthermore not accepted by his colleagues. Indeed, the following comments are included as part of the discussion within that paper which is presented as 'a reading' followed by discussion (pg 237): 1. the numerical results could not be used to give an indication of the order of magnitude of the effect of carbon dioxide, and 2. it is not clear how absorption energy by carbon dioxide is calculated. These are important points that the Callendar paper explains have not been properly examined.
There are of course the voluminous reports from the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, with their findings and theories on popular Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) theory. The content of these reports, endorsed by governments around the world, have been repeated over and over, for example, in the recent influential report by economist Ross Garnaut to the Australian government. It is apparent, however, that a body of science published in peer-review journals, establishing a causal link between anthropogenic carbon dioxide and warming and quantifying the extent of this warming, is lacking but would be expected to exist to support popular AGW theory.
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** I understand causality to be the relationship between cause and effect. American Environmental Scientists, S Marshall Adams, suggests seven causal criteria for evaluating the relationship between specific environmental stressors and observed effects: strength of association, consistency of association, specificity of association, time order of temporality, biological gradient, experimental evidence, and biological plausibility (Establishing causality between environmental stressors and effects on aquatic ecosystems. Human and ecological risk assessment. Feb 2003, 9, 1, pg. 17-35).
Part 1
Part 2 including comment on Hoffman et al.
Part 3 including comment on Crowley
Posted by jennifer at 12:23 PM | Comments (341) | TrackBack
August 28, 2008
Upcoming Changes to the Blog
I started this blog on April 14, 2005, pondering what it means to be a progressive environmentalist. For more than two years various people made a significant contribution to the blog including Neil Hewett and Paul Biggs. About a year ago I asked them to take a more prominent role in the running of the blog and they have been posting under their own names here.
Some readers are able to distinguish posts from Paul, Neil and others, while a percentage continue to ascribe everything that is written at this weblog to me. It can become annoying for all concerned with commentators, for example, directing questions concerning a post from Paul, to me.
We’ve also tried to make it clear that this blog is a gathering place for people with a common interest in politics and the environment and that we strive for tolerance and respect and that we don't always agree with what we publish, but we believe in giving people an opportunity to be heard.
When it comes to blogging I try to be inquiring and inclusive. My posts are often an attempt to understand an issue, not preach a concluded view. If someone sends me something which looks interesting, even if it is heretical, I’m happy to post it and see what responses we get.
In short, while the blog bears my name, I have seen it as a community, not just a soap box for me.
However, it’s sometimes wrongly assumed that I subscribe to everything that is posted at this site and I’ve even been variously associated with creationism, disputing that HIV causes Aids and the tobacco lobby. Meanwhile I’m an evolutionist, not a creationist, or an intelligent designer. I believe that AIDS is caused by HIV. I’m a reformed smoker, not a tobacco lobbyist.
Unfortunately I can see from the last few weeks that in view of my other professional work, I can’t continue to run this blog like that. Anything that appears here, whether or not I write it or it appears under my name, has been credited to me, and that can be used to try to discredit all of my work by mischief makers.
My day job for the IPA involves examining the scientific claims of others and critiquing them. My credibility as a research scientist is central to that work, and I can’t allow it to be compromised by people who want to seize onto any loose comment on this blog and attribute it to me. I also can’t allow loose comments on this blog to be used as a distraction from my considered critiques of other issues.
So, I have decided to make some changes to the way this blog is run. The changes won’t happen immediately because they involve site redesign, but what you will hopefully see is a clearer delineation of who is responsible for posts, and a clear differentiation between community “chatter” and information that you can rely on.
Paul Biggs will be starting his own blog with a focus on climate research news. I shall be promoting his blog once it is up and running which will hopefully be in the next couple of weeks. Neil Hewett will be putting more time into his own blog which will also be promoted at this site when the redesign is complete.
I hope you will continue to support us, after all, in the mainstream media, particularly when it comes to environmental issues, PR continues to overwhelm journalism.
Posted by jennifer at 10:58 PM | Comments (152) | TrackBack
August 27, 2008
Interpreting Eastern Australian Rainfall Data
In The Weekend Australian I wrote that many false claims are made about the state of our environment on an almost daily basis but because most Australians are illiterate when it comes to science and maths, they are mostly just accepted. My first example was eastern Australian rainfall and the claim that the east coast of Australia has suffered declining rainfall, a claim first made by Sir Nicholas Stern in his influential report to the British Parliament.
I explained that observational data on rainfall for the entire east coast of Australia is available from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology with yearly averages for all the sites back to 1900. But, contrary to the Stern report, this chart does not show declining rainfall; rather, it indicates that rainfall was very low in the early 1900s, that there were some very wet years in the late '50s and early '70s, and overall the trend is one of a slight increase in rainfall during the past 107 years, Chart 1.
Chart 1.
While I received many emails, phone calls and The Australian published several letters supportive of my analysis, there have been criticisms including the following comment published in The Australian, "A number of scientifically indefensible ways of presenting data are used in the “Case of the warm and fuzzy”. In each case the errors support the author’s conclusions... In two of the six graphs shown the data is fitted to a straight line which is claimed to show an upward trend in rainfall. What would happen if a non-linear fit (eg, quadratic) were used instead of linear fit.. Dennis Matthews, Ironbark, SA."
When I fit a simple quadratic equation to the data, it also shows an increase in rainfall over the 107 year period, Chart 2.
Chart 2.
But there is really no reason to assume that the rainfall data would be represented by any particular equation (linear or quadratic). These trend lines are unlikely to provide any insight into what is likely to happen next year because weather systems, like financial markets, are complex.
But interestingly, even fitting an 11 year moving average shows a trend of increasing, not decreasing, rainfall, Chart 3.
Chart 3.
My advice to those trying to interprete data presented graphically would be to use what Professor Harry Roberts, University of Chicago Graduate School of Business, has described as the world's most powerful statistical analysis tools - your eyes. What can you see from the squiggly line, Chart 4?
Chart 4.
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Hat tip to MR for the Harry Robert's advice.
Posted by jennifer at 09:07 PM | Comments (135) | TrackBack
GM Becomes Election Issue in Western Australia
The growing of genetically modified (GM) food crops is currently illegal in several Australian states including Tasmania, South Australia and Western Australia.
Western Australian Premier Alan Carpenter has promised to continue the ban while the opposition Liberal Party says it will allow these crops if it wins the September 6 election.
Read more here: http://gmobelus.com/news.php?viewStory=124
Posted by jennifer at 10:13 AM | Comments (37) | TrackBack
Clouds at the Edge of Space
Two years after the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa, the Indonesian supervolcano, Robert Leslie published a note in the journal Nature describing wispy blue filaments in the night sky. He is now credited with the discovery of noctilucent clouds (NLCs).
Photograph from the International Space Station, positioned 340 km over western Mongolia on July 22, 2008. Clouds estimated to be 83km above earth (at the edge of space). Credit to NASA at http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/25aug_nlc.htm
According to Gary Thomas, atmospheric scientists at the University of Colorado, the clouds are thought to be spreading and their first sightings coincide with the Industrial Revolution.
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Thanks to Willem for the link.
Posted by jennifer at 09:37 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
August 26, 2008
No Reliable Data on Historical Polar Bear Numbers - A Note from Nichole Hoskin
Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have become a symbol of global warming, and their predicted decline a sign of worst to come, but until very recently population estimates were really just educated guesses. Current polar bear numbers are estimated to total between 20,000 and 25,000.
On May 14 2008, when announcing the decision to list polar bears as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, Secretary for the U.S. Department of Interior, Dirk Kempthorne stated,
“Although the population of bears has grown from a low of about 12,000 in the late 1960’s to approximately 25,000 today, our scientists advise me that computer modeling projects a significant population decline by the year 2050.”
But there are no published papers or reports to support the claim that there were about 12,000 polar bears forty years ago.
At the 1968 meeting of International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Polar Bear Specialist Group in Alaska, the Canadian Wildlife Service representatives suggested that numbers were as low as 5,000 in the 1950s and 1960s.
Current Chairman of the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group, Andrew Derocher, has stressed,
“The early estimates of polar bear abundance are a guess. There is no data at all for the 1950-60s. Nothing but guesses. We are sure the populations were being negatively affected by excess harvest (e.g., aircraft hunting, ship hunting, self-killing guns, traps, and no harvest limits). The harvest levels were huge and growing. The resulting low numbers of bears were due only to excess harvest but, again, it was simply a guess as to the number of bears.”
But how can Dr Derocher be sure that polar bear populations were being negatively affected by harvesting if there is no hard data on population numbers for the same period?
In 1972, at the 3rd Working Meeting of the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist group the Norwegian representative, Thor Larson, suggested there were as many as 20,000 in the late 1960s. Larson said,
“Merely by summarising the various national counts, which still must be considered inaccurate, one reaches the conclusion that the worlds total polar bear population is probably closer to 20,000 animals, than to the lower figures often suggested.”
Just maybe there have always been about 20,000 polar bears in the Arctic?
Nichole Hoskin is a research assistant at the Institute of Public Affairs and is adding to the Environmental Wiki associated with this blog.
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Other blog posts by Nichole Hoskin on polar bears include:
Polar Bears Can Survive where there is no Summer Sea Ice: A Note from Nichole Hoskin, August 20, 2008. http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003342.html
This blog is a gathering place for people with a common interest in politics and the environment. We strive for tolerance and respect. We don't always agree with what we publish, but we believe in giving people an opportunity to be heard.
Posted by jennifer at 10:47 AM | Comments (212) | TrackBack
Barack Obama's Running Mate is Very Green
Joe Biden is Barack Obama's running mate and perhaps the next vice president of the USA. Popular website Grist has examined his environmental record and found it to be very 'green'. The Senator:
1. was a cosponsor of the Boxer-Sanders Global Warming Pollution Reduction Act, which advocated a cap-and trade-system for greenhouse-gase emmissions and an 80 percent reduction below 1990 levels by 2050;
2. has called for increasing ethanol and biodiesel production in the US; and
3. has called for 20 percent of US electricity to be from renewable sources.
According to Grist during his 35 years in the Senate he has voted "fairly consistently with environmentalists".
Posted by jennifer at 08:20 AM | Comments (12) | TrackBack
David Dilley Predicts Global Cooling Now
"IN a new e-book 'Global Warming—Global Cooling, Natural Cause Found', meteorologist and climate researcher David Dilley utilizes nearly a half million years of data linking long term gravitational cycles of the moon explain the recent global warming, rises in carbon dioxide levels, and for 2200 global warming cycles during the past half million years.
"The gravitational cycles are called the Primary Forcing Mechanism for Climate (PFM), and act like a magnet by pulling the atmosphere’s high pressure systems northward or southward by as much as 3 or 4 degrees of latitude from their normal seasonal positions, and thus causing long-term shifts in the location of atmospheric high pressure systems.
"Research by Mr. Dilley shows a near 100 percent correlation between the PFM gravitational cycles to the beginning and ending of global warming cycles. Global warming cycles began right on time with each PFM cycle during the past half million years, as did the current warming which began 100 years ago, and it will end right on time as the current gravitational cycle begins its cyclical decline.
"Global temperatures have cooled during the past 12 months. During 2008 and 2009 the first stage of global cooling will cool the world’s temperatures to those observed during the years from the 1940s through the 1970s. By the year 2023 global climate will become similar to the colder temperatures experienced during the 1800s.
"Mr. Dilley of Global Weather Oscillations has found seven different types of recurring gravitational cycles ranging from the very warm 460,000 year cycle down to a 230year recurring global warming cycle. All of the gravitational cycles coincide nearly 100 percent with 2200 global warming events during the past half million years. This includes the earth’s current warming cycle which began around the year 1900, and the first stage of global cooling that will begin during 2008 and 2009.
"The release of the book culminates 19 years of research clearly linking gravitational cycles as the cause for fluctuations within the earth’s climate. The book is available as an electronic e-Book on this website. The author David Dilley is a meteorologist and climate researcher with Global Weather Oscillations Inc." [end of quote]
Information from David Dilley via the ICECAP blog
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This blog is a gathering place for people with a common interest in politics and the environment. We strive for tolerance and respect. We don't always agree with what we publish, but we believe in giving people an opportunity to be heard.
Posted by jennifer at 07:56 AM | Comments (123) | TrackBack
August 25, 2008
A Recent Visit to Alexandria Bay, Noosa National Park
I visited Alexandria Bay at Noosa National Park last Thursday. It's a beautiful place about 160 kms north of Brisbane on the east coast of Australia.
Pandanas palm with view to Pacific Ocean.
There is a sandy track that winds through woodland and heathland from Sunshine Beach.
Scrub turkey under pandanas palm.
It is always fun to explore rock pools.
Rock pool at northern headland.
The same rock pool from a higher ledge.
The same rock pool from a higher ledge.
On the way home it was sad to find a stranded stingray.
Stingray on the beach.
During previous visits to Noosa National Park I have seen a koala and an echidna.
Posted by jennifer at 08:19 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack
100 Years of Science: Lecture in Sydney, September 6, 2008
Professor Jak Kelly will present 'Science then and now: What will 100 years have done for science?' as it was delivered 100 years ago to a meeting of the Royal Society of NSW, in the now heritage-listed Science House in the Rocks (Sydney) on Saturday September 6, 2008.
According to the latest newsletter from the Royal Society of NSW, an equally eminent scientist will follow with a demonstration of the advances in science since that time.
Was science held in much higher regard back then - around the turn of the 20th Century?
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Science then and now - what 100 years has done for science
2-4 pm Saturday September 6, 2008
Science House, 157 Gloucester Street (corner of Essex) in Sydney CBD
Bookings not essential
Posted by jennifer at 03:35 PM | Comments (72) | TrackBack
Hydrogen-powered Cars Successfully Cross USA
Several hydrogen-powered cars have just completed a 13-day trip across the US. They stopped in 31 cities across 18 states.
And I had assumed that this technology was still in its infancy.
Posted by jennifer at 12:25 PM | Comments (113) | TrackBack
August 23, 2008
More Skepticism in the Mainstream Media: Case of the Warm and Fuzzy
I can't say that I approve of the title that they gave my piece in The Weekend Australian: Case of the Warm and Fuzzy (pdf 800kbs).
But I am so pleased that they published the six graphs: all is forgiven. Furthermore, in this one piece I have been provided an opportunity to discuss the facts as they pertain not only to global temperatures, but also to rainfall along the east coast of Australia and salinity in the Murray River.
I am reminded of the George Orwell quote: “In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” Much thanks to The Australian.
I am still looking for the url at the newspaper's website but in the meantime readers who live in Australia should just go out and buy two copies of The Weekend Australian and turn to page 25.
graphs uploaded August 28, 2008
Text now available online at The Australian without charts here (August 25, 2008).
Letters in response can be found here (August 25, 2008).
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Case of the warm and fuzzy
by Jennifer Marohasy
Page 25, The Weekend Australian. August 23-24, 2008
Posted by jennifer at 08:35 PM | Comments (230) | TrackBack
August 22, 2008
Australian IPS Space Weather Agency Moves Solar Cycle 24 Predication Away by 6 Months
Due to the proximity of the IPS predicted rise of solar cycle 24 to observed solar cycle 23 solar minimum values, and the apparent lack of new Cycle 24 sunspots, IPS has again moved the predicted solar cycle away by 6 months.
Ionospheric Prediction Service (IPS): CYCLE 24 PREDICTION MOVED AWAY BY 6 MONTHS
Hat tip to Anthony Watts
Posted by Paul at 05:18 PM | Comments (68) | TrackBack
More Hurricane Reality
A new paper published in GRL gives a 1000-year perspective on Hurricane activity in Boston, USA. The paper is entitled: 'A 1,000-year, annually-resolved record of hurricane activity from Boston, Massachusetts,' by Besonen et al.
The Abstract states:
The annually-laminated (i.e., varved) sediment record from the Lower Mystic Lake (near Boston, MA), contains a series of anomalous graded beds deposited by strong flooding events that have affected the basin over the last millennium. From the historic portion of the record, 10 out of 11 of the most prominent graded beds correspond with years in which category 2–3 hurricanes are known to have struck the Boston area. Thus, we conclude that the graded beds represent deposition related to intense hurricane precipitation combined with wind-driven vegetation disturbance that exposes fresh, loose sediment. The hurricane signal shows strong, centennial-scale variations in frequency with a period of increased activity between the 12th–16th centuries, and decreased activity during the 11th and 17th–19th centuries. These frequency changes are consistent with other paleoclimate indicators from the tropical North Atlantic, in particular, sea surface temperature variations.
The paper concludes:
The LML sedimentary record provides a well-controlled and annually-resolved record of category 2–3 hurricane activity in the Boston area over the last millennium. The hurricane signal shows centennial-scale variations in frequency with a period of increased activity between the 12th–16th centuries, and decreased activity during the 11th and 17th–19th centuries. We recognize that the LML record is a single point source record representative for the greater Boston area, and hurricanes that passed a few hundred km to the east or west may not have produced the very heavy rainfall amounts and vegetation disturbance in the lake watershed necessary to produce a strong signal within the LML sediments. Nevertheless, we also note that clear evidence of a secular change in hurricane frequency identified in the LML record is consistent with other lines of evidence that conditions for the development of hurricanes have changed on centennial timescales. Hence, it appears that hurricane activity was more frequent in the first half of the last millennium when tropical Atlantic SSTs were warmer and eastern equatorial Pacific SSTs were cooler than in subsequent centuries.
Also, a NOAA climate realist speaks out:
Excerpt: “I did not say if there is global warming, it would be man-made,” Mr. Goldenberg emphasized. “Not all scientists agree that the warming we’ve seen is necessarily anthropogenic. It is a blatant lie put forth in the media that makes it seem there is only a fringe of scientists who don’t buy into anthropogenic global warming.” According to Stanley Goldenberg, meteorologist with the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA, based in Miami, “Numerous hurricane meteorologists agree that the historical data has not produced any evidence of changes [due to climate change] in the number or intensity of hurricanes, particularly in the Atlantic Basin, and even globally. “There are some who have done studies that do claim a link, [but] virtually all those studies have been heavily rebutted by others in the hurricane community,” he noted. “In my opinion, the flaw in those studies is an improper utilization of historical databases. I have been a specialist in hurricane climate data for close to three decades, and others who know the databases well agree with what I am saying.” Mr. Goldenberg pointed to a number of confounding problems in such studies, including the time frame chosen, the techniques available now and in the past to measure hurricane activity, the ways in which such activity was recorded, and the availability of satellite data—or lack thereof. “The biggest fallacy is that people think that a hurricane feeds off a warm ocean, and if the ocean gets warmer, we will have more intense hurricanes,” he explained. “But there are other factors involved, such as vertical wind shear, which is the difference between the upper and lower layers of the atmosphere. You could also have drier air. These are far more critical factors than the ocean being warmer. “Everything else being equal, if you warm the ocean under a storm, you might get a stronger storm—but everything else is not equal,” said Mr. Goldenberg. “Warming may increase vertical shear and therefore inhibit storms. The ocean itself warming is such a little effect.” […] Mr. Goldenberg of NOAA added, “There are those who want to attribute any perceived increase in natural disasters to anthropomorphic global warming. I predict that if we have an active hurricane season, someone will attribute it to AGW. They’re not really looking at the science; they’re looking at the disaster.
Global Warming Not Linked To Increased Hurricane Activity
Posted by Paul at 01:31 AM | Comments (60) | TrackBack
August 21, 2008
Environmentalism Can’t Replace Religion: A Note from Ian Plimer
Despite our comfortable materialistic lives, there are many who ask: Is that all? They want a meaning for life and yearn for a spiritual life. Some follow the traditional religions, others embrace paranormal beliefs and many follow a variety of spiritual paths.
A new religion has been invented: Environmentalism. The rise of environmentalism parallels in time and place the decline of Christianity and socialism. This environmental religion is terrified of doubt, scepticism and uncertainty yet claims to be underpinned by science. It is a fundamentalist religion with a fear of nature. It has its own high priests such as Al Gore and a holy writ, such as the IPCC reports. Like many religious followers, few have ever read and understood the holy books from cover to cover.
Like many fundamentalist religions, it attracts believers by announcing apocalyptic calamities unless we change our ways. Its credo is repeated endlessly and a new language has been invented. Logic, contrary data or questioning are not permitted. Heretics are inquisitorially destroyed.
It states that now is the most important time in history and people are told that humanity is facing the greatest crisis in the history of time. We must make great sacrifices. Now. This religion uses thinking out of the Judeo-Christian tradition: If the world has been destroyed, then we humans are to blame.
This new age religion tries to re-mystify the world, a world that its adherents neither experience nor try to understand. The apocalyptic doomsayers promote their new religion with seven second television grabs. A disunity between religion and science is created. The science that derived from the Enlightenment and which bathes in doubt, scepticism and uncertainty is willingly thrown overboard.
Contrary facts are just ignored. Enthusiastic reporting by non-scientists is undertaken. They report new science with alarmist implications yet there is no reporting of contrary information. Non-scientific journalists and public celebrities write polemics that encourage public alarm.
The environmental religion produces widespread fear and a longing for simple all encompassing narratives. It offers an alternative account of a natural world with which adherents have little contact.
Environmentalism embraces a myth of the Fall: the loss of harmony between man and nature caused by our materialistic society. It searches for the lost Eden, which probably never existed. In the ‘good old days’ there was only struggle, starvation and unemployment, not harmony with nature. Environmental evangelism has ritual and language that have substituted substance.
Over historical, archaeological and geological time, there have been thousands of global coolings and global warmings. Global coolings have always depopulated the Earth. We are the first humans ever to fear a warm climate.
Environmentalism exacerbates disease and food shortages and destroys economies. It is a highly flawed religion. Its morality and ethics are questionable.
When the environmentalists recognise the religious aspects of their stance, then real discussion with other scientists becomes possible. Until then, they are just like the creationists who claim that their stance is scientific when their very foundations are religious and dogmatic.
The contradictory religion of environmentalism has given people a purpose in life and, despite ignoring all the contrary science, this religion provides some of the stitches that hold the fabric of society together.
Traditional religious life and practice is experience. Traditional religion tries to make sense of what’s happening to us now and gives us the mechanisms whereby we can have hope for a meaningful life, in spite of its disappointments. Religion gives us the mechanism to cope with failure.
Environmentalism cannot provide for these needs.
This is an edited version of a speech given by Ian Plimer at the IQsquared debate ‘We'd be better off without religion’ on Sydney on August 20, 2008. Ian Plimer is Emeritus Professor of Earth Sciences at The University of Melbourne and Professor of Mining Geology at The University of Adelaide.
Posted by jennifer at 01:41 PM | Comments (185)
A Spot of Controversy
The current cycle of the sun is taking a long time to start, triggering different explanations, writes Mark Lawson in an article entitled: 'Scientists disagree over lack of sunspots,' published in the Australian Financial Review (subscription required).
Excerpt: Despite being dismissed by a number of scientists as of little consequence to the present discussion of climate change, the issue of the sun's activity - or apparent lack of it - has been the subject of considerable debate in recent months. Scientists who concern themselves with the fledgling subject of space weather (changes in the sun's emissions) have been wondering where all the sunspots have gone, when they might come back and what effect this will have on climate.....
Another scientist who says he has identified a link between the sun's activity and climate - in particular between rainfall in Australia and sunspots - is Robert Baker, an associate professor at the University of New England's School of Human and Environmental Studies. Baker tells the AFR he has identified a strong correlation between sunspots, the sun's magnetic activity and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). He says variations in the earth's magnetic field account for about half of the variation in the SOI, and that changes in sunspot activity as an indicator of magnetic activity can be correlated with rainfall patterns in south-east Australia . The Bureau of Meteorology has rejected Baker's reasoning and a paper by him was not accepted by the Australian Meterological Magazine. But Baker says his analysis has been accepted by the peer-reviewed journal Solar Terrestrial Physics for publication in December.
Posted by Paul at 01:36 AM | Comments (36) | TrackBack
August 20, 2008
WWF Spills 'Virtual Water'
WWF used to be the World Wildlife Fund, but these days it has a rather different agenda at the forefront of climate alarmism. In their latest 'report,' WWF have used the concepts of a 'Water Footprint' and 'Virtual Water.' The UK Telegraph reports that, "The average person in the UK uses over 1000 gallons of water a day, making the country one of the biggest water importers in the world." If you haven't drowned, and have nothing better to do, read more here.
Posted by Paul at 05:22 PM | Comments (48) | TrackBack
Sea Surface Temperatures of the Oceans Surrounding Australia - A Note from Bob Tisdale
The extended title of the post is "Sea Surface Temperatures of the Oceans Surrounding Australia and the Magnitude of ENSO Events, " because the following illustrations of Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) of Australian waters present an interesting effect, the impact of the magnitude of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on SST. While I've seen it before in other data sets, I haven't yet singled it out for discussion.
(Note: To economize words, throughout the rest of the post, I'll use "Australian waters" in place of "oceans surrounding Australia" or the "combined Southwest South Pacific and Southeast South Indian Ocean data set.")
First, to determine the area to evaluate, I downloaded data for two geographical areas from the NOAA NOMADS system. They're identified by the red and blue boxes in Figure 1. The coordinates used are 10-45S, 105-165E for the red area and 0-55S, 95-175E for the blue.
Figure 1
Figure 2 illustrates the SST anomalies from January 1854 to June 2008 for the two ocean areas surrounding Australia. Both data sets have been smoothed with a 37-month filter. Picking the start date in the trough at 1905 and the end date at a peak in 2000 (There must be an alarmist side to me.), both data sets show rises in SST that are on the order of 1.0 to 1.2 deg C. The two signals are similar, with the smaller area having the greater variations. For the remainder of this post, I'll use the data from the smaller area, the red curve.
Figure 2
Figure 3 shows the raw long-term data for the SST anomalies of Australian waters. Also illustrated is data that's been smoothed with a 12-month running-average filter. Typical of many other oceanic data sets, there is an overall decline in SSTs from the late 1800s to 1910 and a rebound in SSTs until 1940. Then, though there are underlying oscillations, SSTs rise almost continuously from 1940 to present. El Nino events appear to stand out.
Note: The step change (temperature drop) at 1945 has been identified as an error in a recent Thompson et al letter to "Nature" with the title "A Large Discontinuity in the Mid-Twentieth Century in Observed Global-Mean Surface Temperature".
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v453/n7195/abs/nature06982.html
Figure 3
But there's something that seems to be missing from the data in later years. Refer to Figure 4, which illustrates short-term (January 1978 to June 2008) SST anomalies for Australian waters. The delayed responses to the 82/83, the 86/87/88, and the 97/98 El Nino events are again easy to find with the sudden rises in SST, but…
Where are the effects of the La Ninas?
The 97/98 El Nino is so much larger than the subsequent multiyear La Nina that it gives the impression that it supplied enough heat to create a step change in the SSTs of Australian waters and that the heat then dissipated over a ten year period. But that impression is only partly correct. The effects of the La Ninas are there, but they are overwhelmed by the magnitudes of those major El Ninos.
Figure 4
In Figure 5, I've added NINO3.4 SST anomaly data to the graph of short-term SST anomalies for Australian waters. A scaling factor of 0.3 has been applied to the NINO3.4 data. I've also noted the timing of the two major volcanic eruptions in case someone feels they're relevant.
The time lags between an ENSO event and the response of SST for Australian waters appear to be on the order of a few months to a year. And with the scaling factor used (0.3), the magnitude of the NINO3.4 SSTs during the 82/83, the 86/87/88, and the 97/98 events appear to generate similarly sized reactions in the SSTs of Australian waters.
Then, starting at 1998, it would appear that the entire drop in NINO3.4 SST should result in a similarly sized response in SST, but the response of the Australian waters falls far short. The logic behind the "Would-Should" statement is wrong.
In simple terms, ENSO events supply heat to sea surfaces when the NINO3.4 SST anomalies are greater than zero and remove heat when they're less than zero. So the reference point for the NINO3.4 data is zero when comparing it to other anomaly data. Looking at the data again and using zero as the reference for the multiyear La Nina episode after the 97/98 El Nino, the reaction by the SSTs of Australian waters is in the proper scale. There are minor differences in the cause and effect and in the time lags in prior ENSO events, but all in all, there are no surprises.
Figure 5
The effects of ENSO events on SST trends are obvious once we're reminded of them. Keep in mind that it is not only the frequency of El Nino and La Nina events but also the magnitude of those events that must be considered during discussions of their impacts on global or local climate.
In "The Evolution of ENSO and Global Atmospheric Temperatures", Trenberth et al identify the linear trend in global temperatures that result from ENSO events: "For 1950-98, ENSO linearly accounts for 0.06 deg C of global warming." http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/papers/jgr2001b/jgr2.html
The effects of ENSO events appear much greater on regional levels.
Closing Note: The additional problems with measuring and calculating global mean sea surface temperature are discussed at length in numerous posts at ClimateAudit and in the papers that are the subjects of or the references used for those posts. For further information, refer to the following ClimateAudit posts:
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3114
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1272
SOURCE
Sea Surface Temperature Data is Smith and Reynolds Extended Reconstructed SST (ERSST.v2) available through the NOAA National Operational Model Archive & Distribution System (NOMADS).
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/#climatencdc
Posted by Paul at 04:42 PM | Comments (49) | TrackBack
7000 Year Climate Record Shows Century-Long Droughts in North America and 1500 Year Solar Cycle
A stalagmite in a West Virginia cave has yielded the most detailed geological record to date on climate cycles in eastern North America over the past 7,000 years. The new study confirms that during periods when Earth received less solar radiation, the Atlantic Ocean cooled, icebergs increased and precipitation fell, creating a series of century-long droughts.
A research team led by Ohio University geologist Gregory Springer examined the trace metal strontium and carbon and oxygen isotopes in the stalagmite, which preserved climate conditions averaged over periods as brief as a few years. The scientists found evidence of at least seven major drought periods during the Holocene era, according to an article published online in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
“This really nails down the idea of solar influence on continental drought,” said Springer, an assistant professor of geological sciences.
Geologist Gerald Bond suggested that every 1,500 years, weak solar activity caused by fluctuations in the sun’s magnetic fields cools the North Atlantic Ocean and creates more icebergs and ice rafting, or the movement of sediment to ocean floors. Other scientists have sought more evidence of these so-called “Bond events” and have studied their possible impact on droughts and precipitation. But studies to date have been hampered by incomplete, less detailed records, Springer said.
The stalagmites from the Buckeye Creek Cave provide an excellent record of climate cycles, he said, because West Virginia is affected by the jet streams and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific Ocean.
Other studies have gleaned climate cycle data from lakes, but fish and other critters tend to churn the sediment, muddying the geological record there, said study co-author Harold Rowe, an assistant professor of geological sciences at the University of Texas at Arlington.
“(The caves) haven’t been disturbed by anything. We can see what happened on the scale of a few decades. In lakes of the Appalachian region, you’re looking more at the scale of a millennium,” Rowe said.
Strontium occurs naturally in the soil, and rain washes the element through the limestone. During dry periods, it is concentrated in stalagmites, making them good markers of drought, Rowe explained. Carbon isotopes also record drought, Springer added, because drier soils slow biological activity. This causes the soil to “breathe less, changing the mix of light and heavy carbon atoms in it,” he said.
In the recent study, the scientists cut and polished the stalagmite, examined the growth layers and then used a drill to take 200 samples along the growth axis. They weighed and analyzed the metals and isotopes to determine their concentrations over time.
The data are consistent with the Bond events, which showed the connection between weak solar activity and ice rafting, the researchers said. But the study also confirmed that this climate cycle triggers droughts, including some that were particularly pronounced during the mid-Holocene period, about 6,300 to 4,200 years ago. These droughts lasted for decades or even entire centuries.
Though modern records show that a cooling North Atlantic Ocean actually increases moisture and precipitation, the historic climate events were different, Springer said. In the past, the tropical regions of the Atlantic Ocean also grew colder, creating a drier climate and prompting the series of droughts, he explained.
Unfortunately, at this point the media release replaces data with computer modelled global warming alarmism:
The climate record suggests that North America could face a major drought event again in 500 to 1,000 years, though Springer said that manmade global warming could offset the cycle.
“Global warming will leave things like this in the dust. The natural oscillations here are nothing like what we would expect to see with global warming,” he said.
Though some climate and drought records exist for the Western and Midwest areas of North America, the eastern Appalachian region hasn’t been studied much to date, Rowe said. The research team plans to examine additional stalagmite records from West Virginia and Tennessee to paint a better picture of North American climate cycles.
Collaborators on the study also included Lawrence Edwards, Ben Hardt and Hai Cheng of the University of Minnesota.
Ohio University Research News - ATHENS, Ohio (Aug. 19, 2008): New climate record shows century-long droughts in eastern North America
Weak sun created cool oceans, lowered rainfall seven times in 7,000 years
Abstract:
Elevated Sr/Ca ratios and δ13C values in Holocene-age stalagmite BCC-002 from eastcentral North America record six centennial-scale droughts during the last five North Atlantic Ocean ice-rafted debris (IRD) episodes, previously ascribed to solar irradiance minima. Spectral and cross-spectral analyses of the multi-decadal resolution Sr/Ca and δ13C time series yield coherent ~200 and ~500 years periodicities. The former is consistent with the de Vries solar irradiance cycle. Cross-spectral analysis of the Sr/Ca and IRD time series yields coherent periodicities of 715- and 455-years, which are harmonics of the 1,450±500 year IRD periodicity. These coherencies corroborate strong visual correlations and provide convincing evidence for solar forcing of east-central North American droughts and strengthen the case for solar modulation of mid-continent climates. Moisture transport across North America may have lessened during droughts because of weakened north-south temperature and pressure gradients caused by cooling of the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. across the region throughout much of the year. As such, hydroclimates of eastern NA are dually sensitive to the climate state of the North AO and mid-latitude transcontinental teleconnections linking the Pacific and North Atlantic oceans [McCabe et al., 2004; Seager, 2007]. Herein, we demonstrate that this dual dependency allowed an east-central NA paleoclimate archive (speleothem) to directly record solar-forcing of Mid- to Late Holocene droughts that were caused by weakening of moisture transport over east-central NA in response to cooling of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.
Conclusions:
Seven significant Mid- to Late Holocene droughts are recorded in West Virginia stalagmite BCC-002 as elevated Sr/Ca ratios and δ13C values. Six droughts correlate with cooling of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans as part of the North Atlantic Ocean ice-rafted debris cycle, which has been linked to the solar irradiance cycle. The Sr/Ca and δ13C time series display periodicities of ~200 and ~500 years and are coherent in those frequency bands. The ~200-year periodicity is consistent with the de Vries (Suess) solar irradiance cycle. We interpret the ~500- year periodicity to be a harmonic of the IRD oscillations. Visually, the Sr/Ca and IRD time series show strong correlations and cross-spectral analysis of the Sr/Ca and IRD time series yields statistically significant coherencies at periodicities of 455 and 715 years. These latter values are very similar to the second (725-years) and third (480-years) harmonics of the 1450±500-years IRD periodicity [Bond et al., 2001]. Collectively, these findings and a 1,200-year periodicity in the Sr/Ca time series, demonstrates solar forcing of droughts in east-central North America on multiple time scales. Droughts typically occur during solar minima when SST in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans are comparatively cool. These SST anomalies cause migration of the jet stream away from east-central NA, yielding decreased meridional moisture transport and reduced convergence over east-central NA. Our findings appear to corroborate works indicating that millennial-scale solar-forcing is responsible for droughts and ecosystem changes in central and eastern North America [Viau et al., 2002; Willard et al., 2005; Dennison et al., 2007], but our high-resolution time series provide much stronger evidence in favor of solar-forcing of North American drought by yielding unambiguous spectral analysis results.
Posted by Paul at 04:24 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack
Polar Bears Can Survive where there is no Summer Sea Ice: A Note from Nichole Hoskin
There has been a dramatic reduction in the extent of summer sea ice in the Arctic since 1870, Chart 1.
Drawn by Nichole Hoskin using data from Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois
Australian television's Four Corners showed a program on August 4, 2008, entitled ‘Tipping Point’ claiming that the disappearance of summer sea ice in the Arctic could have drastic consequence for polar bears.
Interestingly there is no summer sea ice in western Hudson Bay in the Canadian Arctic and there are polar bears.
According to polar bear experts, Douglas Clark and Ian Stirling (1998), “The polar bear population that inhabits western Hudson Bay spends the period from late July through early November on shore because the annual ice melts completely.”
Scientists previously thought that these polar bears sustained themselves on stored fat during this ice-free period, however, Derocher et al (1993), found that juvenile males and female polar bears would eat vegetation, such as alpine blueberries, crowberries, grasses and sedge, when marine mammals were unavailable because of the absence of summer sea-ice. This conclusion was based on examination of droppings and observations of signs of feeding on berries, such as berry stained teeth and fur, on polar bears captured in inland areas of western Hudson Bay between 1986 and 1992.
While there is evidence that females and offspring eat berries during the ice-free period, it is unclear whether eating berries significantly contributes to the total energy budget of polar bears. However, Derocher et al argue that eating vegetation “could significantly influence the condition of bears and in turn influence survival, particularly of cubs” and that “the patterns found in western Hudson Bay illustrate the physiological and behavioural plasticity of polar bears.”
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Douglas C. Clark and Ian Stirling, ‘Habitat Preferences of Polar Bears in the Hudson Bay Lowlands during Late Summer and Fall’, (1998) Ursus 10, pp 243-250 at 243 and 248.
Andrew E. Derocher, Dennis Andriashek and Ian Stirling, ‘Terrestrial Foraging by Polar Bears during the Ice-Free Period in Western Hudson Bay’, Arctic (1993) 46(3), pp 251-254 at 251 and 253.
ABC 4 Corner's 'The Tipping Point, broadcast August 4, 2008. Reporter: Marian Wilkinson
http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2008/s2323805.htm
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August 19, 2008
Climate Skepticism now Mainstream, But Australian PM Hides behind White Coats?
Popular Australian television current affairs program 60 Minutes ran the skeptical line on climate change on Sunday night.
To be sure, there were only two skeptics on the segement Professor Richard Lindzen and Dr David Evans, but they did get a fair hearing.
The Prime Minister was even asked to justify his claim that "the 12 hottest years in human history have occurred in the last 13 years."
Indeed Tara Brown responded, "It's not my position to correct you Prime Minister but Ive been told that in fact during the middle ages the global temperatures were two to three degrees warmer than now. Certainly we've had the hottest 12 years in recent history but the planet's been a lot hotter."
Instead of replying in a considered way, the PM said he stood by what the IPCC had to say. [And since the 'hockey stick debacle', what exactly is the IPCC position on the medieval warm period? ]
Early in the segment the PM had this to say about the IPCC: "There's a group of scientists called the International Panel on Climate Change - 4000 of them. Guys in white coats who run around and don't have a sense of humour. They just measure things."
The PM really has no idea!
You can read the transcript here.
The segment was entitled 'Crunch Time', it was shown on Sunday, August 17, 2008 and the reporter was Tara Brown and producer Stephen Taylor.
Posted by jennifer at 08:45 AM | Comments (200) | TrackBack
August 18, 2008
Where does Earth’s Energy come from? A Note from Mark Duffett
Following on from the pondering by Gordon Robertson on extra heat generated by the earth and how this might be accounted for in global warming theory, Mark Duffett has kindly sent in a note with some links:
For all of you out there who might actually be interested in learning something, this isn't a bad introduction:
http://geophysics.ou.edu/geomechanics/notes/heatflow/global_heat_flow.htm
There is a flaw in the assumptions behind the statement contained therein about the practicality of geothermal energy extraction, but ignore that for the moment.
The bottom line here is the figure of 0.075-0.087 W/m2 for globally averaged heat flow (i.e. the flux of internally generated heat at Earth's surface). Note this is fundamentally based on upwards of 20,000 direct measurements. For comparison, the flux of solar energy incident on Earth at the top of the atmosphere is ~1360 W/m2.
You can draw your own conclusions about the likely direct influence of Earth's internal heat on climate.
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/1993/93RG01249.shtml is recommended for a more in-depth treatment.
Cheers
Mark Duffett
Tasmania
Posted by jennifer at 06:03 PM | Comments (190) | TrackBack
Socratic Irony
Socratic Irony: A pose of ignorance assumed in order to entice others into making statements that can then be challenged. [The Oxford Dictionary.]
Posted by jennifer at 09:46 AM | Comments (45) | TrackBack
August 17, 2008
Gordon Robertson on a Molten Core
I have become curious about something. The core of the Earth is alleged to be molten. It's also a fact that the deeper you dig into the Earth, the warmer it gets. Where is that heat coming from... surely not from the Sun. What's the possibility that the Earth generates some of it's own heat from geothermal processes?
When I studied a bit of geology, we learned that the Earth is actually oblate, like a pumpkin. That shape apparently comes from the stress of the gravitational pull of the Sun the Moon. As the Earth moves in its orbit about the Sun, it is flexing due to those stresses, and cracks in the Earth heat up as they rub against one another.
There are estimates that the Earth's core may be in the vicinity of 5,000 to 6,000°C. That heat has to go somewhere. There is also a theory that the core may be turning at a differnt rate than the rest. There would be immense friction in that case, and immense heat generated.
Posted by: Gordon Robertson at August 17, 2008 08:18 AM
Posted by jennifer at 10:06 PM | Comments (90) | TrackBack
William Kininmonth on the Radiation of Energy and Global Warming
Could ‘the greenhouse effect’ be one of those things that everybody claims to understand because it is apparently so important, but in reality it is not supported by a credible scientific literature?
That's the view of Bill Kininmonth, meteorologist and head of Australia's National Climate Centre from 1986 to 1998.
Furthermore, Mr Kininmonth is of the view that, "the role of greenhouse gases is to cool the atmosphere and this, with the surface warming from solar radiation, generates convective instability. It is the temperature lapse rate required for deep convection that leads to the ‘greenhouse effect’"
Confused?
Well in the following note, Mr Kininmonth explains in more detail:
The closest you will come to an explanation of carbon dioxide and the green house effect is in the 'Frequently Asked Questions' of the on-line IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.
My critique on them follows.
“The IPCC’s most recent assessment attempts to be helpful to the casual enquirer by having a series of explanations for ‘frequently asked questions’, or FAQs. The first FAQ is ‘What factors determine earth’s climate’? We are informed that, on average, the earth emits 240 w m-2 of radiation to space and that this equates to an emission temperature of -19oC. The earth’s temperature, however, is about 14oC and the -19oC temperature is found at a height of about 5 km above the surface. To quote the IPCC: “The reason the earth’s surface is this warm is the presence of greenhouse gases, which act as a partial blanket for the longwave radiation coming from the earth’s surface. This blanketing is known as the natural greenhouse effect”.
This explanation by the IPCC is clearly misleading, if not wrong. The inference that the greenhouse gases are acting like a blanket suggests that they are increasing the insulating properties of the atmosphere. However, the main gases of the atmosphere are oxygen and nitrogen, non-greenhouse gases, and they are also excellent insulators against the conduction of heat (like a blanket); adding additional trace amounts of carbon dioxide will have no appreciable impact on the insulating properties of the atmosphere.
In its third FAQ, ‘What is the greenhouse effect?’ the IPCC comes to the nub of the issue but provides a different and equally misleading explanation. “Much of the thermal radiation emitted by the land and the ocean is absorbed by the atmosphere, including clouds, and reradiated back to earth. This is called the greenhouse effect”. According to the IPCC’s global energy budget, the surface emits 390 W m-2 of radiation and the energy radiated back to the surface is 324 W m-2. It is difficult to see how an ongoing net loss of longwave radiation energy from the surface of 66 W m-2 can lead to warming! Indeed, we are all aware that between dusk and dawn the earth’s surface cools.
The IPCC has not explained in a scientifically sound and coherent way, how the ‘greenhouse effect’ is maintained. The greenhouse gases do not increase the insulating properties of the atmosphere and the back radiation does not warm the surface. The IPCC explanation of the greenhouse effect is obfuscation and, even to the mildly scientific literate, reflects ignorance of basic processes of the climate system.”
I am of the view that ‘the greenhouse effect’ is one of those things that is accepted because it is there, everybody claims to understand it because it is so important, but in reality few know how it comes about. My explanation follows (and you will not find this in IPCC publications):
“A credible explanation has no need for smoke and mirrors. The energy flow through the climate system is predominantly by way of four stages: 1) absorption of solar radiation at the surface; 2) conduction of heat and evaporation of latent energy from the surface to the atmospheric boundary layer; 3) convective overturning that distributes heat and latent energy through the troposphere; and 4) radiation of energy from the atmosphere to space. We will see that it is the characteristics of convective overturning that keep the surface warmer than it would otherwise be.
The Kiehl and Trenberth (1997) global average energy budget of the earth (see figure, where the units are W m-2) is used by the IPCC and is a useful starting point for explanation of the establishment and maintenance of the greenhouse effect.
Of the 340 units of solar radiation entering the earth’s atmosphere, 67 are absorbed by the atmosphere and 168 are absorbed at the surface. There is thus an ongoing source of solar energy available to the atmosphere and the surface.
At the surface there is a net accumulation of radiation energy because the incoming solar radiation (168 units) exceeds the net loss of longwave radiation (66 units).
In the atmospheric layer there is absorption of 417 units (390 of emission from the surface, less 40 that go directly to space, plus absorption of 67 of solar radiation) and an emission of 519 units (324 back to the surface and 195 direct emission to space). The net effect of the interaction between the greenhouse gases and radiation is a tendency to cool the atmosphere because it is continually losing energy.
Overall there is a dichotomy, with radiation processes firstly tending to warm the earth’s surface and secondly tending to cool the atmosphere. Air is an excellent insulator against conduction of heat and will not transfer heat through the atmosphere, as is necessary for energy balance. Also, the thermodynamic properties of air (potential temperature increases with height) ensure that turbulent motions of the atmosphere will mix energy downward, not upward as required.
The process for transferring energy from the surface to the atmosphere, necessary to achieve overall energy balance of the climate system, was explained by Herbert Riehl and Joanne Malkus (the latter better known as Joanne Simpson) in a 1958 paper, On the heat balance of the equatorial trough zone (Geophysica). Riehl and Malkus noted that boundary layer air, rising buoyantly in the protected updraughts of deep tropical convection clouds, converts heat and latent energy to potential energy. Away from the convection, compensating subsidence converts potential energy to heat.
What is implied in the Riehl and Malkus model is that deep tropical convection, and the transfer of energy from the surface to the atmosphere, will not take place without buoyant updraughts within deep convection clouds. That is, there is a need for the temperature of the atmosphere to decrease with altitude and that the rate of decrease of temperature must be sufficient to allow buoyancy of the air ascending in the updraughts. From well-known thermodynamic laws, the rate of decrease of temperature must be at least 6.5oC/km to allow the buoyancy forces of convection to overcome the natural stratification of the atmosphere.
The climate system will come into energy equilibrium when temperatures are such that the net solar radiation absorbed is balanced by the longwave radiation to space. At equilibrium, the greenhouse effect (ie, that the average surface temperature of 14oC is greater than the -19oC blackbody emission temperature of earth) is an outcome from the need for convective overturning of the atmosphere.”
Essentially, the role of greenhouse gases is to cool the atmosphere and this, with the surface warming from solar radiation, generates convective instability. It is the temperature lapse rate required for deep convection that leads to the ‘greenhouse effect’. But this takes the wind from the sails of the AGW folk.
William Kininmonth
Melbourne
Mr Kininmonth is the author of Climate Change: A Natural Hazard available from Amazons.
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Posted by jennifer at 07:00 PM | Comments (87) | TrackBack
August 16, 2008
Australian Environment Foundation Annual Conference
A highlight of the last year's conference for me was meeting Helen Mahar. I will be at the conference again this year. You can also register at www.aefweb.info
Posted by jennifer at 12:54 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
Arctic Sea Ice Refuses to Melt
"Just a few weeks ago, predictions of Arctic ice collapse were buzzing all over the internet. Some scientists were predicting that the 'North Pole may be ice-free for first time this summer'. Others predicted that the entire 'polar ice cap would disappear this summer'," writes Steven Goddard in yesterday's UK Register.
The article continues, "The Arctic melt season is nearly done for this year. The sun is now very low above the horizon and will set for the winter at the North Pole in five weeks. And none of these dire predictions have come to pass. Yet there is, however, something odd going on with the ice data...
Read more by clicking here.
Posted by jennifer at 12:40 PM | Comments (93) | TrackBack
Alan Siddons on Radiative Equilibrium
Radiative equilibrium is one of the foundation stones of radiative forcing theory. But it is not a law of physics, only a rather archaic and untested supposition found in climatology textbooks alone.
"For the Earth to neither warm or cool, the incoming radiation must balance the outgoing."
Not really.
It’s best to regard radiant energy simply as a finite power source — indeed, that power is expressed as watts per square meter. An object is said to "cool" by radiating, yet this would seem to imply that restricting its radiation will make it get hotter and hotter. That’s the very premise of greenhouse theory, of course, that by disturbing outgoing radiance any magnitude of temperature gain is possible. But this is easy to test.
Confine a lightbulb inside an infrared barrier (like a globular mirror) and electrically feed one watt to it. After a while, will it be generating the heat of a thousand watt bulb? No.
When its temperature is consistent with the input, further heating stops.
It’s like water seeking its own level. Lacking any means to radiate to its surroundings, the lightbulb merely gets as hot as a watt of power can make it, which is not much hotter than what it would be in the open. If not, we’d be able to generate incredible temperatures very cheaply. Just confine, wait, and release.
Conservation of energy: it’s not just a phrase. The theory of radiative equilibrium arose early in the 19th century, before the laws of thermodynamics were understood.
From The Analytical Theory of Heat:
The radiation of the sun in which the planet is incessantly plunged, penetrates the air, the earth, and the waters; its elements are divided, change direction in every way, and, penetrating the mass of the globe, would raise its temperature more and more, if the heat acquired were not exactly balanced by that which escapes in rays from all points of the surface and expands through the sky. — Joseph Fourier (1768-1830)
Alan Siddons
Holden, Massachusetts
Posted by jennifer at 12:22 PM | Comments (170) | TrackBack
Everything You Ever Wanted to Know About Food Safety
Dear Jennifer,
I have been spending a pleasant Saturday morning doing gardening at the GMO Pundit safety paper list. It's now a bit neater at the start.
I've added a few more papers to bring it over 200.
Most importantly, I've added a button at the right sidebar near the top
"200 plus GM food safety papers"
So to tell people about the safety papers say:
"go to http://gmopundit.blogspot.com/"
or Google GMO Pundit
look at the sidebar on the right, and just click the 200 plus GM food safety papers button
Best regards
David Tribe Ph.D.
Melbourne
--------------------------------
Jennifer has just had a look at:
Exhibit 3.
Citation list of papers that test GM food safety in animal tests or directly and systematically measure safety parameters such as allergenicity or potential toxin fingerprinting:
Aeschbacher, K., L. Meile, R. Messikommer and C. Wenk. (2002) Influence of genetically modified maize on performance and product quality of chickens. Proc. Soc. Nutr. Physiol. 11:196.
Aeschbacher K, Messikommer R, Meile L, Wenk C (2005) Bt176 corn in poultry nutrition: Physiological characteristics and fate of recombinant plant DNA in chickens. Poultry Science 84:385-394
Appenzeller LM, Munley SM, Hoban D, Sykes GP, Malley LA, Delaney B.(2008) Subchronic feeding study of herbicide-tolerant soybean DP-356Ø43-5 in Sprague-Dawley rats. Food Chem Toxicol. 2008 Jun;46(6):2201-13.
Ash, J., C. Novak, and S.E. Scheideler. (2003) The fate of genetically modified protein from Roundup Ready soybeans in laying hens. J. Appl. Poult. Res. 12:242:245.
Alexander TW, Sharma R, Deng MY, Whetsell AJ, Jennings JC, Wang YX, Okine E, Damgaard D, McAllister TA (2004) Use of quantitative real-time and conventional PCR to assess the stability of the cp4 epsps transgene from Roundup Ready (R) canola in the intestinal, ruminal, and fecal contents of sheep. Journal of Biotechnology 112:255-266
Ash J, Novak C, Scheideler SE (2003) The fate of genetically modified protein from Roundup Ready Soybeans in laying hens. Journal of Applied Poultry Research 12:242-245
Atkinson, H.J., Johnston, K.A., Robbins, M.,( 2004). Prima facie evidence that a phytocystatin for transgenic plant resistance to nematodes is not a toxic risk in the human diet. J. Nutr. 134, 431–434.
Aulrich K, Bohme H, Daenicke R, Halle I, Flachowsky G (2001) Genetically modified feeds in animal nutrition 1st communication: Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) corn in poultry, pig and ruminant nutrition. Archives of Animal Nutrition-Archiv fur Tierernahrung 54:183-195
Bakan B, Melcion D, Richard-Molard D and Cahagnier B (2002) Fungal growth and Fusarium mycotoxin content in isogenic traditional maize and genetically modified maize grown in France and Spain. J Agric Food Chem 50(4): 728–731.
Baker, J M, Hawkins, N D, Ward, J L, Lovegrove, A, Napier,J A, Shewry, P R and Beale, M H.(2006) A metabolomic study of substantial equivalence of field-grown genetically modified wheat. Plant Biotechnology Journal Volume 4 Issue 4 Page 381 - July 2006 doi:10.1111/j.1467-7652.2006.00197.x
Barriere Y, Verite R, Brunschwig P, Surault F, Emile JC (2001) Feeding value of corn silage estimated with sheep and dairy cows is not altered by genetic incorporation of Bt176 resistance to Ostrinia nubilalis. Journal of Dairy Science 84:1863-1871
Batista, R. Nelson Saibo, Tiago Lourenço, and Maria Margarida Oliveira (2008) Microarray analyses reveal that plant mutagenesis may induce more transcriptomic changes than transgene insertion PNAS | March 4, 2008 | vol. 105 | no. 9 | 3640-3645
Baudo, M M, Lyons, Powers, S R, Pastori,G M, Edwards, K J, Holdsworth, M J, and Shewry, P R. (2006) Transgenesis has less impact on the transcriptome of wheat grain than conventional breeding Plant Biotechnology Journal Volume 4 Issue 4 Page 369 - July 2006 doi:10.1111/j.1467-7652.2006.00193.x
Barriere, Y., R. Verite, P. Brunschwig, F. Surault, and J.C. Emile. (2001). The feeding value of silage maize estimated with sheep and dairy cows is not affected by genetic incorporation of the Bt 176 resistance to Ostrinia nubilalis. J. Dairy Sci. 84:1863-1871.
Benedict J, Fromme D, Cosper J, Correa C, Odvody G and Parker R (1998) Efficacy of Bt Corn Events MON810, Bt11 and E176 in Controlling Corn Earworm, Fall Armyworm, Sugarcane Borer and Aflatoxin. Texas A&M University System, College Station, TX .
Berberich, SA Ream, J.E., Jackson, T.L., Wood, R., Stipanovic, R., Harvey, P., Patzer, S., and Fuchs, R.L. (1996) The composition of insect-protected cottonseed is equivalent to that of conventional cottonseed. J. Agric. Food Chem. 44, 365–371.
Betz F S, Hammond B G , Fuchs R L (2000) Safety and advantages of Bacillus thuringiensis-protected plants to control insect pests. Regul. Toxicol. Pharmacol. 32, Issue 2, 156-173
Bohme H, Aulrich K, Daenicke R, Flachowsky G (2001) Genetically modified feeds in animal nutrition 2nd communication: Glufosinate tolerant sugar beets (roots and silage) and maize grains for ruminants and pigs. Archives of Animal Nutrition-Archiv fur Tierernahrung 54:197-207
Bondzio, A., Stumpff, F., Schoen, J., Martens, H., Einspanier, R., (2008) Impact of Bacillus thuringiensis Toxin Cry1Ab on rumen epithelial cells (REC) - a new in vitro model for safety assessment of recombinant food compounds, Food and Chemical Toxicology (2008), doi: 10.1016/j.fct.2008.01.038
Brake DG, Thaler R, Evenson DP (2004) Evaluation of Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis) corn on mouse testicular development by dual parameter flow cytometry. Journal of Agricultural and Food Chemistry 52:2097-2102.
Brake, D.G., Evenson, D.P., 2004. A generational study of glyphosatetolerant soybeans on mouse fetal, postnatal, pubertal and adult testicular development. Food Chem. Toxicol. 42, 29–36.
Brake J, Faust MA, Stein J (2003) Evaluation of transgenic event Bt11 hybrid corn in broiler chickens. Poultry Science 82:551-559
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Broll H, Zagon J, Butschke A, Leffke A, Spiegelberg A, Bohme H, Flachowsky G (2005) The fate of DNA of transgenic inulin synthesizing potatoes in pigs. Journal of Animal and Feed Sciences 14:337-340
Brown PB, Wilson KA, Jonker Y, Nickson TE. (2003) Glyphosate tolerant canola meal is equivalent to the parental line in diets fed to rainbow trout. J Agric Food Chem. 51:4268-72.
Bub A, Möseneder J, Wenzel G, Rechkemmer G, Briviba K. (2008) Zeaxanthin is bioavailable from genetically modified zeaxanthin-rich potatoes.Eur J Nutr. 2008 Mar;47(2):99-103. Epub 2008 Mar 4.
And we are only up to 'B'. Who said there hadn't been a lot of testing of genetically modified foods?
Posted by jennifer at 12:05 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
August 14, 2008
Saving the Coorong By Restoring its Native State
The Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is in Adelaide today for a community cabinet meeting. Various media reports suggest there will be pressure on the government to "save" the lower lakes with a special water allocation from upstream.
As part of the meeting the federal cabinet will be briefed by the Murray Darling Basin Commission on following this advice, Mr Rudd has said, "Cabinet will then look at what further measures will be possible to reduce the pressure on the system."
Online Opinion published a piece by me this morning suggesting the solution for the lower lakes lies in opening the barrages, but saving the Murray River is a potentially more difficult proposition.
Read the piece, entitled 'Saving the Coorong by restoring its native state' by clicking here.
Posted by jennifer at 11:25 AM | Comments (18) | TrackBack