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June 30, 2008
Global Warming for Dummies (Part 3)
The prediction of how much manmade global warming we will see in the future (as well as how much past warming was manmade) depends upon something called "climate sensitivity".
For many years, climate researchers have struggled to diagnose the Earth's climate sensitivity from measurements of the real climate system. It's almost a "holy grail" kind of search, because if we could discover the true value of the climate sensitivity, then we would basically know whether future global warming will be benign, catastrophic, or somewhere in between.
Here I present a new method of satellite data analysis which I believe reveals the climate sensitivity, and I also show why it has been so hard to diagnose from observations.
When the Earth warms, it emits more infrared radiation to outer space. This natural cooling mechanism is the same effect you feel at a distance from a hot stove. The hotter anything gets the more infrared energy it loses to its surroundings.
For the Earth, this natural cooling effect amounts to an average of 3.3 Watts per square meter for every 1 deg C that the Earth warms. There is no scientific disagreement on this value.
Climate sensitivity is how clouds and water vapor will change with warming to make that 3.3 Watts a bigger number (stronger natural cooling, called "negative feedback"), or smaller (weaker natural cooling, called "positive feedback").
While there are other sources of change in the climate system, cloud and water vapor changes are likely to dominate climate sensitivity. The greater the sensitivity, the more the Earth will warm from increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations being produced by humans through the burning of fossil fuels.
There are three possibilities for climate sensitivity:
1. If clouds and water vapor don't change as we add CO2 to the atmosphere, then the expected warming by 2100 would only be about 1 deg. C, which would not be a very big concern for most people. This is called the "zero-feedback" case.
2. If low clouds decrease, high (cirrus) clouds increase, or water vapor increases, then warming will be magnified. Most, if not all, climate models predict that clouds and water vapor will change like this, resulting in an amplification of the CO2-only warming of 1 deg C to as much as 4.5 deg. C or more. This is called the "positive-feedback" case, and the greater the positive feedback, the greater the warming. (NOTE: If the sum of all positive feedbacks more than cancel out the 3.3 Watt natural cooling, then the climate system is inherently unstable…this is why you sometimes hear of climate change "tipping points".)
3. If the climate modelers are wrong -- and low clouds increase, high clouds decrease or water vapor decreases with warming -- then the effect will be to reduce the warming to less than 1 deg. C. For instance, if that 3.3 Watts of natural cooling mentioned earlier increased to as much as 8 Watts from cloud changes, the warming would be reduced to about 0.5 deg C by 2100. This is called the "negative feedback" case.
Read more from Roy Spencer here: http://www.weatherquestions.com/Climate-Sensitivity-Holy-Grail.htm
In this simplied version of a paper entitled 'Chaotic Radiative Forcing, Feedback Stripes, and the Overestimation of Climate Sensitiviy' submitted on June 25, 2008 to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Dr Spencer goes on to conclude that:
1. Current satellite estimates of climate sensitivity have a spurious bias in the direction of high sensitivity.
2. This bias is probably due to small, natural fluctuations in cloud cover.
3. The true climate sensitivity only shows up during those shorter periods of time when non-radiative forcing (e.g. evaporation) is causing a relatively large source of temperature variability compared to that from cloud variability.
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Read Global Warming for Dummies Part 1 here: http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/000959.html
And Global Warming for Dummies Part 2 here: http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/002844.html
Posted by jennifer at 08:35 PM | Comments (144) | TrackBack
The UN IPCC '2500 Scientists' Hoax
It’s an assertion repeated by politicians and climate campaigners the world over: “2,500 scientists of the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) agree that humans are causing a climate crisis.”
But it’s not true. And, for the first time ever, the public can now see the extent to which they have been misled. As lies go, it’s a whopper. Here’s the real situation.
Continue reading 'The UN climate change numbers hoax' over at OLO.
Posted by Paul at 08:25 PM | Comments (26) | TrackBack
Energy Intensive Australian Businesses To Report Emissions from Tomorrow: Media Release from Penny Wong
From Tuesday (1 July), businesses emitting large amounts of greenhouse gases will be required to monitor and measure the emissions ahead of reporting them to the Government by October next year.
Minister for Climate Change and Water, Senator Penny Wong, said the requirements were part of Australia’s new National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting System.
“The National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting System will be an important part of our efforts to tackle climate change as we move to establish an emissions trading scheme,” Senator Wong said.
“The emissions trading scheme is at the heart of the Rudd Government’s plan to reduce greenhouse emissions. It is the best way to tackle climate change at lowest cost to families and business.
“This new system will play an important role by more precisely quantifying the greenhouse gases Australia produces. It will also, for the first time, provide robust and comparable information to the public on the greenhouse and energy profiles of Australia’s large corporations.”
From 1 July, corporate groups that emit 125 kilotonnes or more of greenhouse gases each year, or produce or consume 500 terajoules or more of energy, will be required to collect data to meet annual reporting requirements. Corporations controlling facilities that emit more than 25 kilotonnes of greenhouse gases, or use or produce 100 terajoules or more of energy, will also need to collect data.
(25 kilotonnes of greenhouse gas emissions is equivalent to the annual emissions of more than 6,200 cars. 100 terajoules equates to the annual energy use of around 1900 households.)
While the Act governing the system comes into effect on 1 July 2008, relevant corporations will have until 31 August 2009 to apply to register under the scheme, and until 31 October 2009 to submit their first annual greenhouse and energy report.
“Many of these corporations already report their emissions and energy use to meet investor demands under existing programs, or as part of a growing corporate commitment to social responsibility and sustainability,” Senator Wong said.
“But others may be unsure as to whether or not they are covered by the system, and the Department of Climate Change will work closely with them to ensure they can comply.”
The Department of Climate Change has developed an online calculator to help businesses work out whether the system applies to them. The department will continue to run information sessions and provide guidance on using the online reporting system, along with a ‘reporting hotline’.
Posted by jennifer at 07:14 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
Daintree Power Struggles
In an ongoing effort to get through to the Queensland Government, our local ratepayers association is considering a full-page advertisement in the environmental liftout of a local newspaper. It would include an open letter to the Premier of Queensland, the Hon. Anna Bligh MP:
Dear Madam Premier,
Residents and business operators within the Daintree rainforest take their custodial responsibilities very seriously; after all, it is also their own futures they are protecting. They possess an extraordinary knowledge of the area’s global environmental significance and understand the importance of
sustaining a world-class ecotourism economy.
Every year, over sixty businesses attempt to showcase their bona fides as environmental custodians to the half-million or so travellers from the world-over, but the all-important partnership between the host community and its ecotourism clientele, is undermined by the disgrace and impropriety of the world’s worst-practice electricity supply; hundreds of concurrently running engine-generators spewing pollutants into the last remnant of the oldest surviving rainforest in the world. It is anathema to the custodial community and travel altruism is understandably incensed. It is also economically crippling, with fuel prices fast approaching $2/litre; a single family’s modest electrical needs may cost around $170/week for the fuel alone to generate electricity through an internal combustion engine.
Any justification for adherence to the existing policy of excision, as a development choke, is redundant, as the Daintree is now more rigorously regulated than probably anywhere else on the planet. The local community calls upon the Queensland Government to embrace a new partnership, that protects, to the greatest possible extent, the exceptional environmental and ecotourism values, including the people and communities, through renewable optimisation, innovation, development and provision of world’s best-practice electricity supply.
Together we can do much better.
Your faithful partners in protection,
etc.,
Posted by neil at 06:36 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
New Solar Paper Published by Australian Astronomical Society
A new paper entitled: Does a Spin–Orbit Coupling Between the Sun and the Jovian Planets Govern the Solar Cycle? by Wilson et al has been published.
The Abstract states:
We present evidence to show that changes in the Sun’s equatorial rotation rate are synchronized with changes in its orbital motion about the barycentre of the Solar System. We propose that this synchronization is indicative of a spin–orbit coupling mechanism operating between the Jovian planets and the Sun. However, we are unable to suggest a plausible underlying physical cause for the coupling. Some researchers have proposed that it is the period of the meridional flow in the convective zone of the Sun that controls both the duration and strength of the Solar cycle. We postulate that the overall period of the meridional flow is set by the level of disruption to the flow that is caused by changes in Sun’s equatorial rotation speed. Based on our claim that changes in the Sun’s equatorial rotation rate are synchronized with changes in the Sun’s orbital motion about the barycentre, we propose that the mean period for the Sun’s meridional flow is set by a Synodic resonance between the flow period (~22.3 yr), the overall 178.7-yr repetition period for the solar orbital motion, and the 19.86-yr synodic period of Jupiter and Saturn.
Keywords: sun: activity — sun: sunspots — sun: rotation — stars: planetary systems
Andrew Bolt contacted lead author Ian Wilson who told him:
"It supports the contention that the level of activity on the Sun will significantly diminish sometime in the next decade and remain low for about 20 - 30 years. On each occasion that the Sun has done this in the past the World’s mean temperature has dropped by ~ 1 - 2 C."
Posted by Paul at 04:25 PM | Comments (26) | TrackBack
More on the Barrages Blocking the River Murray
Let’s be honest: a dry river is not necessarily an environmental catastrophe.
Two weeks ago Australians were warned that a leaked government report claims there is only six months to save the Murray-Darling Basin.
In response, the Federal Opposition leader, Brendan Nelson, called on the Prime Minister, Kelvin Rudd, to make a joint tour of the River Murray's lower lakes region.
Mr Nelson said he thought it was “very important that the leaders of this nation have a first-hand look at the environmental, economic and human catastrophe which is unfolding in the Lower Murray lakes."
The leaked report focused on the lower lakes, and as I have previously written (Acid Sulfate Blame Floating Upstream, The Land, May 15, pg 30), a solution to many of the environmental problems at the Murray’s mouth is to simply open the barrages and let the area flood with saltwater.
The barrages were built from the 1920s to keep the Southern Ocean out and to raise the lake level, including for boating.
These same barrages also facilitated the development of irrigated farming in this area, but they are unnatural.
If the barrages were now opened, irrigators dependent on freshwater from the lower lakes would need to be compensated.
But the alternative, continuing to send large quantities of water from the drought-drained reserves in the Hume and Dartmouth dams during this protracted big dry, is less viable.
Some argue that if a permanent weir was constructed just upstream of the lakes at Wellington and the barrages used under “an adaptive management regime”, there could be water savings in the order of 750,000 megalitres a year.
Opening the barrages would take some pressure off the system, because less water would need to be allocated to South Australia, but the river could still run dry.
Indeed, it doesn’t matter how many leaked government reports call for more water for environmental flows, if there’s ongoing drought and the upstream dams runs dry, there will be simply no water for the river.
It would be an economic and human catastrophe for the many towns now dependent on the river for their water supply, but it would not necessarily be a catastrophe for the environment.
The River Murray in its natural state could be reduced to a chain of saline ponds.
Indeed, the idea that a river should be always brimming with freshwater is a very European concept – in reality, alien to a land of drought and flooding rains.
So, let’s be honest, many South Australians want to keep the barrages shut to the Southern Ocean and many Victorians and New South Welshmen want to keep the river full of water – not to save the environment, but to avoid what Mr Nelson has described as a potential economic and social catastrophe.
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This is an edited version of my column published in The Land on Thursday June 26 entitled 'Barrages Block Sense'.
You can read many of my The Land columns here: http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/articles.php
Posted by jennifer at 01:59 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack
Farm Lobbies Abandon Farmers: Media Release from Viv Forbes
"The Carbon Sense Coalition today accused the big farming lobby groups, government departments, politicians and Ministers representing agriculture of ignoring science and abandoning farmers to unjustified carbon taxation.
The chairman of “Carbon Sense”, Mr Viv Forbes, claimed that there was no justification whatsoever for including emissions from farm animals in any carbon emissions tax scheme.
“Every intelligent farmer can understand the carbon food cycle whereby every bit of carbon dioxide released by farm animals or plants into the atmosphere has previously been removed from the same atmosphere.”
“This simple process is surely not beyond the understanding of all the lobbyists, bureaucrats, researchers and media living off farmers?”
“In the farm sector carbon balance, apart from any fossil fuel used, it is a zero sum game, and all farm animals have zero net carbon emissions.”
“Grazing animals have not yet learned to live on coal or diesel fuel, and they cannot create carbon out of rocks, soil or water. Therefore they must extract it, via grasses and grains, from that marvellous gas of life in our atmosphere, carbon dioxide. All foods and organic matter represent carbon that has been sequestered by life processes into living matter. The carbon is simply recycled at zero cost.”
“Farm plants and animals are every bit as green as forests. Both farms and forests extract carbon from the air and store it in organic life forms until that organic matter is burnt or decays in the open air, thus returning their borrowed carbon to the atmospheric storehouse.”
“Why then do those who grow forests attract a carbon credit and but those who grow cattle and sheep cop a carbon tax?”
“Australia and New Zealand lead the world in harvesting solar energy and carbon dioxide to produce an abundance of clean green food. Why then are both the New Zealand and the Australian governments proposing to force farm animals into their emissions trading quagmire? And why are they subsidising the conversion of farmland producing food into forests producing nothing but carbon credits or crops producing ethanol motor fuel? What are future generations going to eat?”
Forbes claimed that farmers need to start agitating now or they risk being the only bunnies still paying carbon taxes.
“Motorists who vote and use petrol will escape the carbon tax by sleight of hand – petrol excise will in future be called “carbon tax”. Exporters will get an exemption to enable them to compete with more sensible regimes with no carbon taxes. Other protected species like working families in marginal electorates will get subsidies to cover carbon taxes on electricity bills. Truckies will blockade the roads if politicians add carbon tax to diesel prices. That leaves farmers as the only big group with so few votes and such incompetent leadership that they will pay the carbon tax.”
“Farmers have been abandoned by Ag Force, the Meat and Livestock Authority, CSIRO, the National Party, our “working families” Government and most of the similar organisations in New Zealand. It is not clear whether this is because of a lack of scientific logic or cowardice in the face of electoral hysteria on global warming.”
“But the politicians representing the treasured “working families” in the battling suburbs had better start taking notice of rising food prices or a more soundly based hysteria about the growing shortage of food will sweep emissions trading nonsense from the political landscape.”
Viv Forbes, BScApp, FAusIMM, FSIA
Chairman, The Carbon Sense Coalition
www.carbon-sense.com
Posted by jennifer at 09:45 AM | Comments (37) | TrackBack
June 28, 2008
Normalised Australian Insured Losses from Meteorological Hazards: 1967–2006
Ryan Crompton and John McAneney of Macquarie University in Sydney, Australia have an important new paper in the August, 2008 issue of the journal Environmental Science & Policy titled "Normalised Australian insured losses from meteorological hazards: 1967–2006." (Available to subscribers here). The paper contributes to a growing literature that documents the importance of understanding the integrated effects of societal change and climate change. The paper also underscores the central role that adaptation policies must play in climate policy.
The abstract states:
Since 1967, the Insurance Council of Australia has maintained a database of significant insured losses. Apart from five geological events, all others (156) are the result of meteorological hazards—tropical cyclones, floods, thunderstorms, hailstorms and bushfires. In this study, we normalise the weather-related losses to estimate the insured loss that would be sustained if these events were to recur under year 2006 societal conditions. Conceptually equivalent to the population, inflation and wealth adjustments used in previous studies, we use two surrogate factors to normalise losses—changes in both the number and average nominal value of dwellings over time, where nominal dwelling values exclude land value. An additional factor is included for tropical cyclone losses: this factor adjusts for the influence of enhanced building standards in tropical cyclone-prone areas that have markedly reduced the vulnerability of construction since the early 1980s.
Once the weather-related insured losses are normalised, they exhibit no obvious trend over time that might be attributed to other factors, including human-induced climate change. Given this result, we echo previous studies in suggesting that practical steps taken to reduce the vulnerability of communities to today’s weather would alleviate the impact under any future climate; the success of improved building standards in reducing tropical cyclone wind-induced losses is evidence that important gains can be made through disaster risk reduction.
The text of the paper includes this discussion:
The collective evidence reviewed above suggests that societal factors – dwelling numbers and values – are the predominant reasons for increasing insured losses due to natural hazards in Australia. The impact of human-induced climate change on insured losses is not detectable at this time. This being the case, it seems logical that in addition to efforts undertaken to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, significant investments be made to reduce society’s vulnerability to current and future climate and the associated variability. Employing both mitigation and adaptation contemporaneously will benefit society now and into the future.
We are aware of few disaster risk reduction policies explicitly developed to help Australian communities adapt to a changing climate, yet disaster risk reduction should be core to climate adaptation policies (Bouwer et al., 2007). . .
An increased threat from bushfires under human-induced climate change is often assumed. Indeed Pitman et al. (2006) and others anticipate an increase in conditions favouring bushfires. However, analyses by McAneney (2005) and Crompton et al. (in press) suggest that the main bushfire menace to building losses will continue to be extreme fires and that the threat to the most at-risk homes on the bushland– urban interface can only be diminished by improved planning regulations that restrict where and how people build with respect to distance from the forest. Disaster risk reduction of this kind would immediately reduce current and future society’s vulnerability to natural hazards.
Post lifted from Prometheus
Posted by Paul at 02:11 AM | Comments (76) | TrackBack
June 27, 2008
Climate Models Fail Again! Scientists 'Startled' to Discover 50% of Ozone Destroyed in Lower Atmosphere
Large amounts of ozone -- around 50% more than predicted by the world's state-of-the-art climate models -- are being destroyed in the lower atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. This startling discovery was made by a team of scientists from the UK's National Centre for Atmospheric Science and Universities of York and Leeds. It has particular significance because ozone in the lower atmosphere acts as a greenhouse gas and its destruction also leads to the removal of the third most abundant greenhouse gas; methane.
Professor Alastair Lewis, Director of Atmospheric Composition at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and a lead scientist in this study, said: "At the moment this is a good news story -- more ozone and methane being destroyed than we previously thought - but the tropical Atlantic cannot be taken for granted as a permanent 'sink' for ozone.
Professor John Plane, University of Leeds said: "This study provides a sharp reminder that to understand how the atmosphere really works, measurement and experiment are irreplaceable. The production of iodine and bromine mid-ocean implies that destruction of ozone over the oceans could be global".
ScienceDaily: Destruction Of Greenhouse Gases Over Tropical Atlantic May Ease Global Warming
Reference:
Katie A. Read, Anoop S. Mahajan, Lucy J. Carpenter, Mathew J. Evans, Bruno V. E. Faria, Dwayne E. Heard, James R. Hopkins, James D. Lee, Sarah J. Moller, Alastair C. Lewis, Luis Mendes, James B. McQuaid, Hilke Oetjen, Alfonso Saiz-Lopez, Michael J. Pilling, John M.C. Plane. Extensive halogen-mediated ozone destruction over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Nature, 453, 1232-1235 (26 June 2008) DOI: 10.1038/nature07035
Posted by Paul at 04:59 PM | Comments (62) | TrackBack
More Opinion on Global Warming this Sunday on Channel 9
Some of the personalities regularly featured on this blog will be on Australian television this Sunday morning talking with journalist Adam Shand about global warming.
The feature story on the Channel 9 Sunday Program will include comment from Tim Flannery, Robyn Williams, Don Aitkin and myself.
I gather the story could be on anytime from 7.30am - the program runs for a couple of hours.
Update June 28
From the Sunday Program website:
Questioning Science
Reporter: Adam Shand
The theory of anthropogenic, or man-made, global warming has become an unchallengeable fact, a piece of black letter law almost unique in the world of science.
Proponents of the theory say the time for scientific debate is over. It would irresponsible to fund any further research into counter views on the relationship between elevated levels of carbon dioxide and a rise in temperatures since the mid-1970s.
It's regarded as career suicide for scientists to advocate any counter view of the causes of global warming, let alone deny the orthodox consensus view as adopted by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
However, there is a school of thought that our knowledge of climate systems is as yet insufficient to be so conclusive on the causes of global warming.
Today Sunday examines the political consensus building that has portrayed global warming as the most urgent crisis humankind has ever faced.
Skeptics point to the gaps in the knowledge base and the flaws in the measurement of vital climate and weather data upon which the consensus is based.
Social researchers also highlight the dangers of conducting science as a form of religion, divided into believers and deniers.
They warn that as governments prepare to make expensive policy decisions, such as carbon emissions trading schemes, this consensus may not reflect the best science.
http://sunday.ninemsn.com.au/sunday/cover_stories/article_2493.asp
Posted by jennifer at 12:13 PM | Comments (158) | TrackBack
June 26, 2008
Fire Under the Arctic Ice
An international team of researchers was able to provide evidence of explosive volcanism in the deeps of the ice-covered Arctic Ocean for the first time. Researchers from an expedition to the Gakkel Ridge, led by the American Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), report in the current issue of the journal Nature that they discovered, with a specially developed camera, extensive layers of volcanic ash on the seafloor, which indicates a gigantic volcanic eruption.
"The Vesuvius erupted in 79 AD and buried thriving Pompeii under a layer of ash and pumice. Far away in the Arctic Ocean, at 85° N 85° E, a similarly violent volcanic eruption happened almost undetected in 1999 – in this case, however, under a water layer of 4,000 m thickness."
EurekAlert: Fire under the ice
Nature: Explosive volcanism on the ultraslow-spreading Gakkel ridge, Arctic Ocean
Posted by Paul at 06:01 PM | Comments (41) | TrackBack
The Times: New Ice Age is On The Way
'Climate: New ice age is on the way.' That was a headline from The Times newspaper on 21st October 1972.
On 23rd March 1970 the headline read: 'Antarctic may be key to ice ages.' According to Dr A T Wilson of Wellington University, New Zealand, the Antarctic may once again be approaching the point of instability at which an ice age is triggered off.
How do I know? The Times Archive invites you to explore 200 years of history as it appeared in the original pages of The Times newspaper from 1785-1985. Every issue of The Times published between 1785-1985, digitally scanned and fully searchable. During the free introductory period access all articles in the Times Archive free. Just register when you do a search and see the 'R' symbol.
Have fun!
Posted by Paul at 05:23 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
UK's Looming Energy Gap Suffers 'Wind Chill'
I've often thought that maybe the Kyoto Protocol could have been more aptly named the 'Don Quixote Protocol.' Why? Because 'Kyoto' sounds like 'Quixote' and, in the novel by Miguel de Cervantes, Quixote fought an imaginary enemy of giants that turned out to be windmills. Today, our imaginary enemy is 'big warming' driven by CO2 conjured up in computer models. One of the consequences of fighting this phantom menace is the UK's looming energy gap. Instead of windmills, we have wind turbines. This brings me to a new report by the Centre for Policy Studies entitled: 'Wind Chill'
The summary states:
Britain faces an energy gap of up 32 GW by 2015 as older coal and nuclear power stations are paid off. At the same time, Britain has made a binding commitment to deliver 15% of all its energy consumption from renewable energy sources by 2020.
Government policy is based on using wind power both to help close the energy gap and to meet its renewable energy targets
If the Government is to meet its renewables target, then the amount of electricity to be generated by wind farms
will have to increase by more than 20 times.
Expensive
This will be very expensive. Electricity generated by wind turbines already enjoys huge subsidies and tax breaks
through the Renewables Obligation scheme.
The Government has now accepted that the total costs of meeting the 2020 target will be £100 billion. This is the
equivalent of £4,000 for every household in the country.
WIND CHILL
The Royal Academy of Engineering has calculated that wind energy is two and a half times more expensive than other forms of electricity generation in the UK.
Unreliable
Wind generation does not provide a reliable supply of power. It must be backed up by other baseload sources.
Greater reliance on wind power could lead to electricity supply disruptions if the wind does not blow, blows too hard or does not blow where wind farms are located.
The experience of Denmark – often hailed for its pioneering development of wind farms – is that wind energy is expensive, inefficient and not even particularly “green”. There are signs that other countries are losing some of their enthusiasm for wind power.
Unpopular
There is no evidence that people are prepared to pay for wind power. Only 15% of people say that they are fairly or very willing to pay higher electricity bills if the extra money funds renewable power sources such as wind. The figures for “very unwilling” and “fairly unwilling” are 37% and 24% respectively.
This over-reliance on expensive wind energy, coupled with rising gas prices, will drive six million households
into fuel poverty.
Disrupting
Present wind farm planning applications do not take into consideration the economic viability of the project or whether the topography and meteorological conditions are suitable.
The planning system already favours wind farm developers. But if the Government is to meet its renewable target by 2020, then current planning regulations will have to be weighted even further in favour of wind farm suppliers.
The Ministry of Defence has recently lodged last minute objections to at least four onshore wind farms claiming
the turbines will interfere with their national air defence radar.
The alternative
The energy gap must be filled with equivalent baseload capacity as quickly as possible.
The UK should therefore now develop its nuclear, clean coal (including coal gasification) and other renewable supplies of energy (particularly tidal).
Wind energy, in contrast, should only play a negligible role in plugging Britain’s looming energy gap.
There is also an article about the report in the Daily Mail: Wind turbines are 'unreliable and will cost each home £4,000' claims think-tank
Posted by Paul at 01:31 AM | Comments (88) | TrackBack
June 25, 2008
The Eerie Parallel Universe of Blogging
There has been some negative reaction in the blogosphere to a piece by David Burchell in The Australian newspaper entitled 'Huddled Lasses Yearn to be Free'. The title is presumably with reference to the young Cuban blogger, Yoani Sanchez, whom Burchell suggests with some admiration has played a significant role in the struggle for freedom in Cuba.
But here in Australia, according to David Burcell, the blogosphere is mostly a "vast outpouring of pseudo-expertise and vituperation" serving mainly as "a testament to Western societies' tendency for producing self-important, opinionated folks far in excess of our capacity to employ them."
Burcell continues, "in this the blogosphere resembles the so-called literary low-life of the decades before the French Revolution. In those days resentful and under-employed scribblers amused themselves by illegally publishing salacious rumours about Marie Antoinette or the clergy, the better to strip away the sacred veil of monarchical rule. Except that, in those days, publishing even salacious rumours required a certain sort of bravery."
Wow!
But then again, on reflection, as I see it, all writing requires a certain amount of bravery.
When it comes to blogging there is always the risk that the writer might get something seriously wrong and with it ruin reputations and any hope of financial security.
Indeed I have never met anyone who wrote primarily for notoriety, or job security, or in the hope of becoming rich.
Many bloggers, like myself, write primarily because we want to communicate, we feel a need to communicate, and in my case to provide an alternative perspective on important environmental issues.
But the real difference between a blog, and an article in The Australian newspaper, is that the blogger lays his thoughts and evidence open to criticism the moment the text is uploaded. There is no retreat and no hiding behind letter editors.
In the 'mud-wresting' (as Burchell describes it) that follows the posting of a blog entry there is much potential to have fun, test the strength of your argument, make friends, and even learn something important, new and interesting.
Thanks for reading and often wresting with the evidence and ideas.
Posted by jennifer at 11:53 AM | Comments (16) | TrackBack
June 24, 2008
The Need to Balance Environmental Policies Against Economic Growth
There is an insightful short article in The Guardian by Irwin Stelzer, who is the director of the centre for economic policy studies at the Hudson Institute, and editor of the book Neoconservatism:
Gordon Brown is eager to prove that red is green, while David Cameron is urging voters to "vote blue, go green". So far, so good. But the prime minister is having some difficulty answering the question "How green are your taxes?" - while the leader of the opposition's promise to make green taxes "replacement taxes, not new taxes", contains more than a dash of Brownian stealth.
Continue reading Brown's pale green policies are more honest than most, Unlike Cameron, the prime minister grasps the need to balance environmental policies against economic growth.
Posted by Paul at 09:51 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack
Real Food Shortage Will Require Real Science and Technology?
The British government is preparing to open the way for genetically modified crops on the grounds they could help combat the global food crisis.
At least that's according to Andrew Grice, Policitical Editor with The Independent, reporting on a meeting between Britian's Environment minister, Phil Woolas, and the Agricultural Biotechnology Council, amidst claims that "rocketing food prices and food shortages in the world's poorest countries mean the time is right to relax Britain's policy on use of GM crops."
As Graham Young, Chief Editor of e-journal On Line Opinion, recently emailed me, "With food shortages becoming the new Greenhouse type issue, I think that all is set to change. Governments will be throwing money at scientists who say they can feed the world, and it will become a new glamour industry... it is perhaps ironic that hard science, rather than computer modeling, might come back into vogue now that we have a real, rather than potential, problem."
Posted by jennifer at 02:47 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack
Ken Willett Talking Transport in Brisbane
The Institute of Public Affairs invites you to the third Brisbane Club Lecture for 2008. Entitled 'Prescribing the right medicine for a city choked with congestion' the lecture is on Thursday, July 24, 2008 at 5pm in The Brisbane Club's The Oak Room (241 Adelaide Street, Brisbane CCBD).
After the talk, attendees are invited to come at their own expense to an informal dinner with Ken Willett at the nearby restaurant Zenbar at 7:00pm.
Ken Willett is a Senior Consultant for ACIL Tasman. Ken has worked in project/corporate for more than 38 years and is an expert in urban transport economics and natural resource economics. In recent years he has focused on anti-congestion policy and abatement of greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector. Before joining ACIL Tasman, Ken worked in the private and public sectors in three states and headed RACQ's public policy department for nearly 5 years.
RSVP Andy Poon, Telephone 03 9600 4744, Email apoon@ipa.org.au
Posted by jennifer at 02:30 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
June 23, 2008
Impressions of humanity in wilderness
We have an enlargement of this image printed on stretched canvas, hanging on the wall of our living room. In its abundance and purity, water underpins the richness of our rainforest home and this image beautifully captures the celebrity of its most central supply.
As a family, we spend a surprising amount of time discussing and enjoying impressions within the image, such as the somewhat maniacal moss-covered face at the centrepiece of the two major falls. Another, somewhat haunting depiction of what we agree appears to be a woman’s face, looks upward from the right-hand wall of the cascade towards the heavily-browed simian face to the immediate left of the upper fall.
In an absence of formal identity, I named these Bridal Veil Falls, for the splendid way that the water diverted to the left spreads, with such an even, parabolic descent.
In retrospect, I would have liked to have been able to provide a presentation service to this gorgeous feature deep within the Cooper Valley, but such an entitlement is vigorously prohibited, through application of the precautionary principle. Of course, being national park, public entry is an existing right, however, the provision of a guiding service is not allowed.
Ironically, I may be called upon to assist in the recovery of a lost hiker, along with perhaps another hundred or so volunteers, in an environment deemed too important to suffer the impact of a guide that might prevent the loss in the first place.
Posted by neil at 05:47 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
FOI Stonewall for IPCC Documents
See Climate Audit: IPCC claim to have destroyed working documents violates objective, open and transparent process:
We’ve been following with interest David Holland’s efforts to obtain information on how IPCC review editors discharged their important duties under IPCC process, with the most recent progress report here. Here’s another update.
As noted in other posts, IPCC policies state:
"All written expert, and government review comments will be made available to reviewers on request during the review process and will be retained in an open archive in a location determined by the IPCC Secretariat on completion of the Report for a period of at least five years."
Despite this, IPCC Review Editor John Mitchell of the UK Met Office claimed to have destroyed all their working documents and correspondence pertaining to his duties as Review Editor and the Met Office also claims to have expunged all records.
David Holland has also made FOI inquiries to Keith Briffa, a lead author of AR4 chapter 6. Here’s a progress report documenting: May 5 - FOI request
May 6 - CRU Acknowledgement
June 3 - CRU Refusal Notice
June 4 - Holland Appeal
June 20 - CRU Rejection of Appeal
Fortress CRU #2: Confidential Agent Ammann
On March 31, 2008, David Holland sent a letter to Keith Briffa asking about several IPCC issues. In correspondence released from the Hadley Center, Briffa indicated his intention of being unresponsive. On May 15, Briffa sent an unresponsive reply to Holland, following which Holland initiated a FOI request on May 27, 2008 leading to an acknowledgement on June 3 and Refusal Notice on June 20. This one has additional interest in that Holland asked for copies of expert comments on IPCC chapter 6 sent directly by Caspar Ammann to Keith Briffa, sent outside the formal review process. Both Briffa and Ammann refused to release these comments. For some reason, Ammann seems to think that he is not subject to IPCC requirements that expert comments be open and that he is entitled to make secret comments.
UPDATE
Fortress Met Office continued
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3208
More obstruction from the Met Office, in which they have changed their obstruction strategy. Previously they said that Mitchell had destroyed all of this email correspondence. This prompted David Holland to ask for information on the date of the destruction and on records management policy at the Met Office.
Rather than answer the unanswerable, the Met Office has changed tactics. Now they say that they had made a mistake in reporting that they had held any of Mitchell’s email. Instead they now argue that Mitchell was acting “personally” when he acted as an IPCC Review Editor - sort of like gardening, or being a Methodist on Sunday or playing squash after work, I guess. I wonder if Mitchell booked vacation time for his jaunts to IPCC meetings or whether the Met Office paid his expenses. Would they also buy plants for his garden?
Posted by Paul at 05:22 PM | Comments (192) | TrackBack
Another Schizophrenic and Biased Climate Report
The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) has released an assessment report titled 'Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate,' with a focus on North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands.
The official Press Release claims:
Global warming of the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced increases in heat-trapping gases, according to the report. Many types of extreme weather and climate event changes have been observed during this time period and continued changes are projected for this century. Specific future projections include:
Abnormally hot days and nights, along with heat waves, are very likely to become more common. Cold nights are very likely to become less common.
Sea ice extent is expected to continue to decrease and may even disappear in the Arctic Ocean in summer in coming decades.
Precipitation, on average, is likely to be less frequent but more intense.
Droughts are likely to become more frequent and severe in some regions.
Hurricanes will likely have increased precipitation and wind.
The strongest cold-season storms in the Atlantic and Pacific are likely to produce stronger winds and higher extreme wave heights.
As pointed out by Prometheus, some of the conclusions from the report were not included in the PR:
1. Over the long-term U.S. hurricane landfalls have been declining.
2. Nationwide there have been no long-term increases in drought.
3. Despite increases in some measures of precipitation (pp. 46-50, pp. 130-131), there have not been corresponding increases in peak streamflows (high flows above 90th percentile).
4. There have been no observed changes in the occurrence of tornadoes or thunderstorms.
5. There have been no long-term increases in strong East Coast winter storms (ECWS), called Nor’easters.
6. There are no long-term trends in either heat waves or cold spells, though there are trends within shorter time periods in the overall record.
Roger Pielke Sr exposes the bias in the report on his Climate Science weblog:
Since this assessment is so clearly biased, it should be rejected as providing adequate climate information to policymakers. There also should be questions raised concerning having the same individuals preparing these reports in which they are using them to promote their own perspective on the climate, and deliberately excluding peer reviewed papers that disagree with their viewpoint and research papers. This is a serious conflict of interest.
Another Example Of CCSP Bias In The Report “Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate”
Yet again, the CCSP report process presents biased information of the diversity of conclusions in peer reviewed studies of the climate system.
NOTE: THE TERM SCHIZOPHRENIC IS USED TO DESCRIBE THE CCSP REPORT IN THE CONTEXT AS DEFINED BY THE OXFORD ENGLISH DICTIONARY, WHICH IS DISTINCT FROM THE MEDICAL DISORDER:
"(in general use) a mentality or approach characterized by inconsistent or contradictory elements."
But of course, everyone knew that already, didn't they!?
Posted by Paul at 04:38 PM | Comments (5)
Temperature Adjuster Hansen to Call for Energy Execs to be Put on Trial - Updated
James Hansen, one of the world's leading climate scientists, will today call for the chief executives of large fossil fuel companies to be put on trial for high crimes against humanity and nature, accusing them of actively spreading doubt about global warming in the same way that tobacco companies blurred the links between smoking and cancer.
'A
The Guardian: Put oil firm chiefs on trial, says leading climate change scientist
UPDATE
Hansen has made the claims above on live radio on the Dian Rehm show this morning, the link to the audio is below:
"On the 20th anniversary of his groundbreaking global warming testimony before the U.S. Senate, James Hansen discusses his belief that the planet is dangerously close to tipping points that would be extremely difficult to reverse. The NASA climate scientist reflects on what has and hasn't changed in two decades, political pressures, and the controversy he's stirred by speaking out."
http://wamu.org/programs/dr/08/06/23.php#20635
Joe D'Aleo of ICECAP has plotted the actual NASA global satellite monthly temperatures since Hansen's first testimony in June 1988. Note we are colder than in 1988 by as much as 0.4C:
Also, Hansen "gagged" by a megaphone:
Posted by Paul at 04:26 PM | Comments (20) | TrackBack
June 22, 2008
Another Poll Suggests UK Public Sceptical about AGW
The majority of the British public is still not convinced that climate change is caused by humans - and many others believe scientists are exaggerating the problem, according to an exclusive poll for The Observer.
The Observer: Poll: most Britons doubt cause of climate change
Posted by Paul at 05:18 PM | Comments (14) | TrackBack
Goodbye Dear Old Friend, We'll Always Miss You
A Border Collie puppy came into our lives on Sunday 11th August 1996 rather sooner than expected. We'd agreed to buy him for £50 a couple of days earlier after we saw him at Rabbit Farm in Criccieth, North Wales. When we went to see him again on Sunday, we were told that we could take him away there and then, so we did. There we were with a new puppy on a Sunday with no food, bowls, or lead and there were few shops open. I remember that he cried all the way during the car journey back to our touring caravan that we kept at my in-laws sea-side home in Dinas Dinlle. We left him with our two children and went off to purchase the essential items.
Too small to climb onto the caravan seat!
I should point out that we didn't follow the sound advice for purchasing a puppy, such as seeing the puppy's parents, using a Kennel Club registered breeder, and not taking a puppy that is under 8 weeks old. However, he was cute and we loved him already. My wife wanted to call him Diesel, but our daughter Michelle wanted to name Lucky after the dog in the cartoon film 101 Dalmatians. Michelle won and our new puppy was duly named Lucky.
Lucky with 'Boomy,' his favourite toy
Lucky turned out to be a great dog. On his walks he played alternately with a plastic, squeaky boomerang (boomy) and a ball. Everyone who knew him liked him, and he liked them too. He didn't like most other dogs, not helped by the fact that he was attacked by two Staffordshire Bull Terriers as a young dog. For 12 years he gave us the unconditional love, entertainment and companionship. So many happy memories.
Retrieving sticks from the sea
Worn out after playing on the beach during his last trip to North Wales in May 2006.
A couple of weeks before we went on holiday to Spain he seemed to be lame in one of his rear legs, following a slip on the laminate floor in our hallway. We thought a week at my mother-in-law's bungalow would give him chance to recover whilst we were away in Spain. On our return we would review the situation, and if there had been no improvement we would take him to the vet. He did seem to improve a little in our absence, but the day before our return his lameness got worse and his back legs were giving way. My wife Sue took him to the vet on Friday 13th June where he was sedated in order that he could be X-rayed. Around mid-day the vet 'phoned Sue with the bad news. Lucky had advanced Bone Cancer (Osteosarcoma) in his left leg, and it has also spread to his chest. He had days or weeks rather than months to live. We really had no choice but to have Lucky put to sleep. The vet brought Lucky out of the anaesthetic so that Me, Sue, our son Michael, our daughter Michelle and her partner could spend some time with him at the surgery. Sue and I remained with him, fussing him while the vet put Lucky peacefully to sleep. The pain was all ours.
So, goodbye dear old friend, we will always miss you. You made each day that much better, and from now on each day will be that much worse.
LUCKY
June 1996 - 13th June 2008
Paul and Sue Biggs are members/supporters of the Border Collie Trust GB, a Registered Charity (1053585) which relies on public support to assist Border Collies in the UK.
Thanks to the staff at the Mercia Veterinary Surgery for attending to Lucky's medical needs over the past 12 years.
Walkies in the Spring Snow, 6th April 2008:
http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/002901.html
Posted by Paul at 02:28 AM | Comments (11) | TrackBack
GM Wheat and Climate Change - A Note from Darren
Victorian premier John Brumby extolled the virtues of drought-tolerant GM wheat under development in Australia at an international biotechnology conference in the U.S., explicitly linking the new varieties and their potential to help combat climate change.
“Drought-tolerant wheat developed in Victoria is returning yields up to 20 per cent higher than non-GM control crops, Premier of Victoria John Brumby announced today at BIO 2008 in San Diego, California:”
VICTORIAN DROUGHT-TOLERANT WHEAT YIELDS UP 20 PER CENT
A few climate-change chickens may be coming home to roost. As people become concerned about global warming, a concern promoted by activist groups themselves, it seems to be having the unintended consequence of allowing policy makers and the public to see GM crops as being more acceptable if they might “help”.
Drought tolerance, salt tolerance and yield-increasing GM traits may start to be seen less unfavourably, even though they are a producer benefit not a consumer benefit, since they’ll at least be better for the environment and this climate change issue that people keep hearing about.
Greenpeace for example, seem to have less credibility now when they call a drought-tolerant, higher-yielding wheat variety “unsustainable” as they did on ABC radio on Friday (although not repeated in their press release, below).
Greenpeace: Genetically engineered wheat not the solution to drought
Posted by Paul at 02:27 AM | Comments (15) | TrackBack
June 20, 2008
Amphibian Chytridiomycosis "Not Driven by Climate Change"
A new study by a team of scientists specializing in zoology and animal health reported, "analyses found no evidence to support the hypothesis that climate change has been driving outbreaks of amphibian chytridiomycosis."
The study was published in the peer-reviewed PLoS Biology, a journal of the Public Library of Science:
Riding the Wave: Reconciling the Roles of Disease and Climate Change in Amphibian Declines
Karen R. Lips1*, Jay Diffendorfer2, Joseph R. Mendelson III3, Michael W. Sears1
1 Department of Zoology, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, Illinois, United States of America, 2 Illinois Natural History Survey, Champaign, Illinois, United States of America, 3 Zoo Atlanta, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
We review the evidence for the role of climate change in triggering disease outbreaks of chytridiomycosis, an emerging infectious disease of amphibians. Both climatic anomalies and disease-related extirpations are recent phenomena, and effects of both are especially noticeable at high elevations in tropical areas, making it difficult to determine whether they are operating separately or synergistically. We compiled reports of amphibian declines from Lower Central America and Andean South America to create maps and statistical models to test our hypothesis of spatiotemporal spread of the pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), and to update the elevational patterns of decline in frogs belonging to the genus Atelopus. We evaluated claims of climate change influencing the spread of Bd by including error into estimates of the relationship between air temperature and last year observed. Available data support the hypothesis of multiple introductions of this invasive pathogen into South America and subsequent spread along the primary Andean cordilleras. Additional analyses found no evidence to support the hypothesis that climate change has been driving outbreaks of amphibian chytridiomycosis, as has been posited in the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis. Future studies should increase retrospective surveys of museum specimens from throughout the Andes and should study the landscape genetics of Bd to map fine-scale patterns of geographic spread to identify transmission routes and processes.
Author Summary
Once introduced, diseases may spread quickly through new areas, infecting naive host populations, such as has been documented in Ebola virus in African primates or rabies in North American mammals. What drives the spread of the pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), which causes chytridiomycosis, is of particular concern because it has contributed to the global decline of amphibians. We modeled the spatiotemporal pattern of the loss of upland amphibian populations in Central and South America as a proxy for the arrival of Bd and found that amphibian declines in Central and South America are best explained by Bd spreading through upland populations; we identified four separate introductions of Bd into South America. Climate change seriously threatens biodiversity and influences endemic host–pathogen systems, but we found no evidence that climate change has been driving outbreaks of chytridiomycosis, as has been posited in the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis. Our findings further strengthen the spreading-pathogen hypothesis proposed for Central America, and identify new evidence for similar patterns of decline in South American amphibians. Our results will inform management and research efforts related to Bd and other invasive species, as effective conservation actions depend on correctly identifying essential threats to biodiversity, and possible synergistic interactions.
Posted by Paul at 09:42 PM | Comments (20) | TrackBack
Food Crisis Consequence of Bad Government Policy
The current global food “crisis” is not so much a consequence of natural resource constraints as it is a consequence of poor food policy decisions by government. That’s the headline in an article by Mick Keogh, Executive Director of the Australian Farm Institute, published on Monday by On Line Opinion.
I tend to agree with Mick.
The bottom line is that governments in Europe and North America, as Mick explains, have very actively discouraged agricultural production over recent decades by converting arable land into conservation areas. According to Mick, the USA has 16 million hectares of crop land (almost two thirds of Australia’s total crop area) in Conservation Reserve.
In Australia, the bans on tree clearing, but in particular the purchase of water allocation from irrigators in the Murray Darling Basin, is going to significantly impact on our potential to produce food in the longer term. Indeed while the Murray Darling Basin has historically received only 6 percent of Australia’s annual rainfall, it has produced 40 percent of Australia’s food. This is where we have concentrated the national investment in water infrastructure.
Mick suggests that the imminent introduction of greenhouse emission mitigation policies in Australia and New Zealand also has the potential to adversely impact global agricultural capacity by converting agricultural land to permanent carbon sink forests.
I thought this had already occurred to some existent in Australia, with the bans on broad scale tree clearing in our rangelands? But Mick is perhaps referring to new Blue Gum and pine plantations. Does anyone have any figures on areas likely to be converted from agriculture to this type of forestry?
Mick also mentions the lack of investment in agricultural research and development, government policies mandating the use of food crops for fuel production and policies that restrict trade.
Posted by jennifer at 06:28 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack
EU Rule Put Half a Million Homes in the Dark
Oh! the joy of living under the Soviet EU and policies driven by global warming alarmism:
The unexpected shutdown of two power stations on Tuesday, May 29, led to the worst disruption to the UK’s power network in more than 20 years, prompting new concerns over the stability of Britain’s ageing power grid.
However, industry sources say that a key factor was the European Union’s Large Combustion Plant Directive (LCPD), which sets strict limits on the number of hours that some of Britain’s largest and most heavily polluting coal and oil-fired power stations can operate before they have to close in 2015. The time is measured in “stack hours” — the length of time that chimney stacks, rather than individual generation units, are in use.
The Times: EU rule kept half a million homes in the dark
Posted by Paul at 06:20 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack
Climate Science Round Up from This Week's Science and Nature Journals
Science Journal:
A Greener Greenland:
Natural Variability of Greenland Climate, Vegetation, and Ice Volume During the Past Million Years
Anne de Vernal* and Claude Hillaire-Marcel
The response of the Greenland ice sheet to global warming is a source of concern notably because of its potential contribution to changes in the sea level. We demonstrated the natural vulnerability of the ice sheet by using pollen records from marine sediment off southwest Greenland that indicate important changes of the vegetation in Greenland over the past million years. The vegetation that developed over southern Greenland during the last interglacial period is consistent with model experiments, suggesting a reduced volume of the Greenland ice sheet. Abundant spruce pollen indicates that boreal coniferous forest developed some 400,000 years ago during the "warm" interval of marine isotope stage 11, providing a time frame for the development and decline of boreal ecosystems over a nearly ice-free Greenland.
Eric J. Steig and Alexander P. Wolfe
Pollen data suggest that the Greenland ice sheet was much smaller during previous warm periods.
Changes in Altitude
Elevation Changes in Antarctica Mainly Determined by Accumulation Variability
Michiel M. Helsen et al
Antarctic Ice Sheet elevation changes, which are used to estimate changes in the mass of the interior regions, are caused by variations in the depth of the firn layer. We quantified the effects of temperature and accumulation variability on firn layer thickness by simulating the 1980–2004 Antarctic firn depth variability. For most of Antarctica, the magnitudes of firn depth changes were comparable to those of observed ice sheet elevation changes. The current satellite observational period (15 years) is too short to neglect these fluctuations in firn depth when computing recent ice sheet mass changes. The amount of surface lowering in the Amundsen Sea Embayment revealed by satellite radar altimetry (1995–2003) was increased by including firn depth fluctuations, while a large area of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet slowly grew as a result of increased accumulation.
Kurt M. Cuffey
Estimating ice sheet mass changes from elevation surveys requires adjustments for snow density variations at the ice sheet surface.
Nature journal:
Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise
Catia M. Domingues et al
Changes in the climate system's energy budget are predominantly revealed in ocean temperatures and the associated thermal expansion contribution to sea-level rise. Climate models, however, do not reproduce the large decadal variability in globally averaged ocean heat content inferred from the sparse observational database even when volcanic and other variable climate forcings are included. The sum of the observed contributions has also not adequately explained the overall multi-decadal rise. Here we report improved estimates of near-global ocean heat content and thermal expansion for the upper 300 m and 700 m of the ocean for 1950–2003, using statistical techniques that allow for sparse data coverage and applying recent corrections to reduce systematic biases in the most common ocean temperature observations. Our ocean warming and thermal expansion trends for 1961–2003 are about 50 per cent larger than earlier estimates but about 40 per cent smaller for 1993–2003, which is consistent with the recognition that previously estimated rates for the 1990s had a positive bias as a result of instrumental errors. On average, the decadal variability of the climate models with volcanic forcing now agrees approximately with the observations, but the modelled multi-decadal trends are smaller than observed. We add our observational estimate of upper-ocean thermal expansion to other contributions to sea-level rise and find that the sum of contributions from 1961 to 2003 is about 1.5 (+/-0.4) mm yr-1, in good agreement with our updated estimate of near-global mean sea-level rise (using techniques established in earlier studies) of 1.6 (+/-0.2) mm yr-1.
Posted by Paul at 04:59 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack
Leseur's Frog
Leseur’s Frogs (Litoria lesueuri) emerge after dark from their diurnal concealment amongst leaf-litter on the dark-brown forest floor, where they elude the predatory appetites of a formidable avian oversight.
Like all members of the genus, Leseur’s have large finger and toe pads and horizontal pupils, however, males out-number females, perhaps as many as fifty-to-one. Adult Females, such as the one pictured, are three to four times the mass of males and much less gregarious and stream-bound (I get the impression that the greater mass of the female provides more liberty from running water).
It has been a tough year for wildlife sightings generally with the longest, coldest patch I have known since starting my nocturnal forays, fifteen years ago. The last couple of nights have been good for the primitive northern leaf-tailed and chameleon geckos, as well as the spectacular moth Lyssa Macleayi.
Posted by neil at 09:13 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
AP Duped by Spoof Global Warming Study?
CBS News have published an Associated Press (AP) story entitled: 'Today's Quakes Deadlier Than In Past,' Study: Seismic Activity 5 Times More Energetic Than 20 Years Ago Because Of Global Warming:
(AP) New research compiled by Australian scientist Dr. Tom Chalko shows that global seismic activity on Earth is now five times more energetic than it was just 20 years ago
The research proves that destructive ability of earthquakes on Earth increases alarmingly fast and that this trend is set to continue, unless the problem of "global warming" is comprehensively and urgently addressed......
What a pity an earlier study by Chalko seems to have gone unnoticed: 'Can Earth explode as a result of Global Warming?'
NU Journal of Discovery is an unknown journal, with only a handful of publications, all of them by Chalko, who happens to be on the journal editorial board. NU (or Nature University) isn't a real university.
Here are a few more things Chalko has been involved in:
Aliens! http://thiaoouba.com/faq.htm
Auras: http://thiaoouba.com/seeau.htm
Astral Travel? http://thiaoouba.com/astr.htm
He even sells "bioresonant" shirts:
http://bioresonant.com/dress.html?PHPSESSID=1a7fd4e1219326e73544904d8d1ac67d
Now they are groovy! I might even get one myself.
Global warming causing earthquakes and exploding planet earth. What next?
Hat tip to MM and JP.
UPDATE: The CBS News article has now been pulled - the link is dead.
Posted by Paul at 01:56 AM | Comments (75) | TrackBack
June 19, 2008
Stop Complaining About the Lower Murray And Open the Barrages
The South Australian Government's claim, as reported by ABC Online, that it cannot save the Lower Lakes and Coorong on its own and is reliant on support from the other Murray-Darling states is simply untrue.
As I wrote in The Land on May 15, the main problem in the lower Murray is developing acidity from the drying of the lower lakes, and the simple solution is to open the barrages at the bottom of Lake Alexandrina and let the area reflood with seawater.
Potential acid sulphate soils (ASS) are common along much of the Australian coastline. These soils formed after the last major sea level rise, which began about 10,000 years ago. The soils are harmless as long as they remain waterlogged. But, if the water table is lowered the sulphide in the soils will react with oxygen forming sulphuric acid.
In the case of the lower lakes near the mouth of the Murray River in South Australia, the barrages built 80 years ago are stopping inundation from seawater; in the same way the dykes in Holland are used to reclaim land. Indeed the Dutch have been managing associated acid sulphate soil problems for more than four centuries.
The drought continues in the Murray Darling Basin and so the barrages should be opened to flood the lower lakes. If a temporary weir was constructed at Wellington, the salt water would not go any futher upstream.
Despite the drought, South Australians have so far been receiving fully 76 percent of their annual entitlement when many NSW and Victorian irrigators have had no water allocation.
It is time the South Australians stopped blaming upstream irrigators for a drought beyond everyone's control.
Acid Sulfate Soils have been associated with fish kills in coastal Queensland and New South Wales when land was inappropriately drained. For example, about 700 hectares of land near Cairns was drained in 1976, and since then it has been estimated that 72,000 tonnes of acid has flowed into Trinity Inlet.
Approximately 50 percent of the NSW cane land is underlain with potential ASS and inappropriate drainage of these soils caused a major fish kill in the Tweed River in 1987.
NSW farmers have since solved the problem through the implementation of less intrusive drainage and liming.
The can-do NSW farmers got on and fixed their problem, but the South Australians have instead provided money to CSIRO Land and Water to undertake a study, including to, establish the severity and spatial extent of the problem.
In the interim there will be lots of media releases and whinging, including about how they should be receiving more stored irrigation water from the Hume Dam in the Upper Murray or else their lake turns to acid.
There is in fact a simple solution to the problem in the lower Murray, open the barrages and let seawater re-flood the area.
Posted by jennifer at 12:50 PM | Comments (53) | TrackBack
2000 Years of North Icelandic Sea Surface Temperatures
A new paper has been published by Sicre et al in Earth and Planetary Science Letters entitled: 'Decadal variability of sea surface temperatures off North Iceland over the last 2000 years.'
The Abstract states:
Ocean variability at decadal time-scales remains poorly described partly because of the scarcity of high temporal resolution marine records. Here, we present a reconstruction of Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the past two millennia at unprecedented temporal resolution (2 to 5 years), from a marine core located off North Iceland. Alkenone paleothermometry was used to infer SST variability, and tephrochronology to build the age model. Spectral analyses of the SST signal indicate intermittent 20–25 year oscillations, with periods of strong and weak power, that are likely reflecting the ocean response to wind forcing, presumably the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Warmer SSTs and paleo-magnetic proxy data, between 1000 and 1350 year A.D., overlapping the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), suggest enhanced heat transport across the Denmark Strait by the North Icelandic Irminger Current (NIIC). This is in contrast with the subsequent period, which includes the Little Ice Age (LIA), showing continuous cooling towards the 20th century. Reduced NIIC flow through the Denmark Strait likely resulting from higher freshwater and sea ice export from the Arctic would account for the observed colder conditions.
Keywords: Decadal variability; Sea surface temperature; North Atlantic; Alkenones; Medieval Warm Period; Little Ice Age; Iceland
The authors state in the Discussion:
"A remarkable feature of the North Icelandic SST record is the abrupt increase of around 1–1.5 °C occurring within a decade around 980 A.D., maybe imputable to the onset of the MWP. This sustained warm period, lasting for several centuries, ends by a sharp cooling around 1350 A.D., following a brief cold episode around 1250 A.D. The same pronounced centennial-scale warming, though not exactly synchronous, has been documented by the distant records from the Sargasso Sea (Keigwin, 1996), the Eastern sub-tropical Atlantic (deMenocal et al., 2000) and estuarine sediments of Chesapeake bay (Cronin et al., 2005), confirming its widespread occurrence in the North Atlantic region."
Hat tip to CO2Science.org
Posted by Paul at 01:50 AM | Comments (25) | TrackBack
June 18, 2008
How 'Green' is the Hybrid Car?
On 10th June we learned that Australia's first locally manufactured hybrid car will roll off Toyota's production line in less than two years, in a deal Victorian Premier John Brumby has heralded as a 'coup'.
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and Toyota's president Katsuaki Watanabe made the announcement today in Japan.
ABC News: Brumby lauds $35m Toyota hybrid 'coup'
I don't have any axe to grind over Hybrid cars, I'd just like to know the truth about how 'green' they really are. In the US and UK there has been some controversy over the 'dust to dust' or 'life cycle' CO2 emissions, costs and energy useage of the Toyota Prius. Toyota supposedly produced their own report, which to the best of my knowledge has never been made public. A CNW Marketing report claimed that the dust to dust cost per mile for a Toyota Prius was $3.249, compared to $3.027 for Hummer H2. There is more in a balanced article from the UK Telegraph from 2007 entitled: Who are you kidding?
This news has reached Australia:
As more Australians scramble to buy hybrid petrol/electric cars, Britain's biggest-selling auto magazine has taken a swipe at them, saying hybrids are no better for emissions than an efficient diesel or petrol-driven car.
The magazine Auto Express says none of the hybrids' advertised emissions figures were borne out in their test drives.
ABC News: Hybrid cars 'not so green'
Meanwhile, Toyota are promising a 'plug-in' hybrid for 2010.
Thanks to Luke for alerting me to Australia embracing the hybrid car, while I was on holiday in Spain - I'm still catching up!
Posted by Paul at 04:37 PM | Comments (76)
Jason - 2 Ocean Research Satellite Due for Launch
Teams of climate change researchers around the world will be anxiously counting down the launch of the Jason-2 satellite from California, scheduled for 20 June 2008. Successful lift-off will mean a whole new era in detecting the expansion of our oceans and sea level rise, both major indicators of climate change.
CSIRO: 'Countdown to Satellite Launch and new era of ocean research'
Posted by Paul at 05:37 AM | Comments (24) | TrackBack
June 17, 2008
The Only Way is UP: Reality Trumps Emissions Projections
There is a new paper (in press) in the journal Climatic Change by Peter Sheenan of the Centre for Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University, Melbourne, Australia entitled: 'The new global growth path: implications for climate change analysis and policy'
The Abstract states:
In recent years the world has moved to a new path of rapid global growth, largely dri