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May 31, 2008
Bumblebee Success
I'm into my second year as a member of The Bumblebee Conservation Trust. I was considering burying a bumble bee nest box in my garden, but the other day I noticed that there is no need - the little critters have already made a nest utilising a pre-existing hole in a flower bed next to our conservatory. Now, I'm no Neil when it comes to wildlife photography, particularly as I don't currently have a sophisticated digital camera, but I've done the best I can by capturing a couple of bees in flight during the frequent trips to and from the nest.
Bumblebees are important pollinators of wild flowers and crops in the UK. Already 3 species are extinct and 9 more are threatened. No, not due to 'global warming,' but habitat loss. The Bumblebee Conservation Trust explains the problem:
"It is thus essential that we take steps to conserve our remaining bumblebee populations, and if possible restore them to something like their past abundance. This cannot be achieved with existing nature reserves. Bumblebee nests are large, containing up to 400 sterile workers, each of which travels more than 1 km from the colony in search of suitable flowers. Each nest needs many hectares of suitable flower-rich habitat, meaning that to support a healthy population which is viable in the long term, large areas of land must be managed sympathetically. UK nature reserves are simply too small. The only way to provide sufficient areas of habitat for bumblebees is if the wider farmed countryside and the vast areas covered by suburban gardens are managed in a suitable way. To do this we need to educate people...
We need to and encourage farmers to adopt wildlife friendly farming methods through uptake of the Entry Level Stewardship scheme (ELS). We need to support the replanting of hedgerows and the recreation of hay meadow and chalk grassland habitats. These activities will not be at the expense of farming, but will actually benefit it, by improving crop yields at the same time as enriching the countryside. Meanwhile, in gardens nationwide we need to use wild flowers and traditional cottage-garden plants."
A worthy cause, not tainted by the global warming bandwagon like the WWF or the RSPB, which is partly why I joined the the BBCT and am an ex-member of the RSPB.
For some professional, close up photos of bumblebees, check out the BBCT gallery.
Posted by Paul at 10:31 PM | Comments (48) | TrackBack
What is Wilderness? (Part 11)
For me, wilderness both resonates of human potential and also describes the ultimate expression of humanity. No other state of relations can be more admirable. Far from the notion of humankind and wilderness being mutually exclusive, I believe we must rather aspire to change for the benefit of wilderness and in so doing, restore to ourselves, integrity.
Posted by neil at 09:55 PM | Comments (26) | TrackBack
What is Wilderness? (Part 10)
"Genuine wilderness must embody a strong element of wildness and freedom.
It is not a nature park with paths and handrails and faux rustic signs warning of the obvious with myriad rules enforced by badged bureaucrats in uniform.
Real wilderness is also a state of mind which entails not only freedom but responsibility. It's a place where one may do as they wish but no one else is liable for the consequences.
Parks have their place but they tend to present nature as a passively experienced spectacle for tourists. Wilderness is something more up close and personal. One doesn't just see it, one lives it."
Walter Starck, May 2008
Cape Grenville, Australia, Photograph by Walter Starck
Cape Grenville, Australia, Photograph by Walter Starck
I just had to post the picture twice.
part 1 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/000797.html
part 2 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003015.html
part 3 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003044.html
part 4 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003104.html
part 5 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003112.html
part 6 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003120.html
part 7 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003124.html
part 8 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003127.html
part 9 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003129.html
Posted by jennifer at 11:45 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack
What is Wilderness? (Part 9)
It becomes so hypnotising, that I've just had to dive overboard into 15,000 feet of ultramarine indigo and let my boat sail on without me with no one on board.
Mind you, I had a long line trailing.......
I felt I was "the first that ever burst into that silent sea".
Beyond Buyat Bay, North Sulawesi, Indonesia. Photograph by Eric Ness
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part 1 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/000797.html
part 2 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003015.html
part 3 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003044.html
part 4 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003104.html
part 5 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003112.html
part 6 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003120.html
part 7 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003124.html
part 8 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003127.html
Posted by jennifer at 11:23 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
CSIRO Advice Poisoned by Fear: Garth Paltridge
"I HEAR on the scientific grapevine that CSIRO’s biggest problem when providing formal advice to the federal Government on the matter of climate change is to say nothing that can be interpreted as giving aid and comfort to the army of irresponsible sceptics out there who are doubtful about the dreadful consequences of global warming.
One can only feel sorry for the Government. Where can it go these days to get unbiased advice on the issue of global warming? Its official sources are poisoned by the fear among many scientists that they may be labelled by their colleagues and by their institutions as climate-change sceptics.
Basically, the problem is that the research community has gone so far along the path of frightening the life out of the man in the street that to recant publicly even part of the story would massively damage the reputation and political clout of science in general. And so, like corpuscles in the blood, researchers all over the world now rush in overwhelming numbers to repel infection by any idea that threatens the carefully cultivated belief in climatic disaster.
Garth Paltridge
Emeritus Professor and Honorary Research Fellow,
Institute of Antarctic and Southern Ocean Studies,
University of Tasmania"
Republished from The Australian
Posted by jennifer at 10:13 AM | Comments (85) | TrackBack
May 30, 2008
What is Wilderness? (Part 8)
"Wilderness is mainly in the mind's eye - to be a stranger in a strange land for a fraction of a second and create an other world where what is familiar and drab and safe is fleetingly unrecognisable yet beckons like a siren's song. A place like home yet a place like no other."
Posted by: Libby at May 27, 2008 10:06 PM
Photograph of Elford Reef, Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Provided by Walter Starck
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part 1 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/000797.html
part 2 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003015.html
part 3 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003044.html
part 4 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003104.html
part 5 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003112.html
part 6 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003120.html
part 7 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003124.html
Posted by jennifer at 10:29 PM | Comments (12) | TrackBack
Divergent Climate Histories for East and West Antarctica Over 14 Million Years
There is an interesting News Focus story in this week's Science journal, that helps to confirm the different climate histrories for the East and West Antarctic ice sheets - a phenomenon that persists in modern times:
ANTARCTICA: Freeze-Dried Findings Support a Tale of Two Ancient Climates
A surprising cache of ancient plant material adds evidence for divergent climate histories of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets over the past 14 million years
Excerpt: These findings appear to be contradictory at first glance, but in fact they buttress an evolving view among scientists that the two major features of the continent, the western and eastern ice sheets, have experienced vastly different climate histories. Data from the Dry Valleys reveals an East Antarctic Ice Sheet that is high, dry, cold, and stable, at least in its central area. And the ANDRILL cores suggest a more volatile West Antarctic Ice Sheet that is subject to the changing temperatures of the sea in which it wades. "It reaffirms the fragility of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet [WAIS] and the stability of the central part of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet," says Peter Barrett, a sedimentologist at the Victoria University of Wellington (VUW) in New Zealand, who advised the ANDRILL project.
Posted by Paul at 04:39 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
What is Wilderness? (Part 7)
"Why do we love to believe that mankind is a plague upon the Earth? We view anything and everything that happens in nature, no matter how barbaric, bloody, or destructive, as good. Indeed, the word 'natural' has no negative connotation at all.
If a volcano like Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines dumps millions of tons of sulfur into the stratosphere, cooling the Earth for two or three years, this is simply Mother Nature at work. If humans did it, we would call it an environmental catastrophe."
Roy Spencer. May 29, 2008
http://article.nationalreview.com/print/?q=MDExMTEwZWVjZmI5MGFmNzgzYmM1MWVmNTc0MDMyYTU=
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part 1 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/000797.html
part 2 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003015.html
part 3 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003044.html
part 4 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003104.html
part 5 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003112.html
part 6 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003120.html
Posted by jennifer at 09:22 AM | Comments (19) | TrackBack
Not Evil Just Wrong: New Film by Ann McElhinney and Philem McAleer
Ann McElhinney and Phelim McAleer, the directors and producers of the documentary on mining and environmentalism, Mine Your Own Business, have just finished a new film 'Not Evil Just Wrong'.
The trailer is now on you tube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHMOEVRysWE
Their new focus appears to be global warming.
Posted by jennifer at 12:45 AM | Comments (8) | TrackBack
May 29, 2008
Nature Journal Finally Catches Up with Climate Audit
I find this really amusing for a number of reasons. I refer to an article in this week's Nature entitled 'A large discontinuity in the mid-twentieth century in observed global-mean surface temperature' by Thompson, Kennedy, Wallace and Phil Jones.
The abstract states:
"Data sets used to monitor the Earth's climate indicate that the surface of the Earth warmed from approx 1910 to 1940, cooled slightly from approx 1940 to 1970, and then warmed markedly from approx 1970 onward. The weak cooling apparent in the middle part of the century has been interpreted in the context of a variety of physical factors, such as atmosphere–ocean interactions and anthropogenic emissions of sulphate aerosols. Here we call attention to a previously overlooked discontinuity in the record at 1945, which is a prominent feature of the cooling trend in the mid-twentieth century. The discontinuity is evident in published versions of the global-mean temperature time series, but stands out more clearly after the data are filtered for the effects of internal climate variability. We argue that the abrupt temperature drop of approx 0.3 °C in 1945 is the apparent result of uncorrected instrumental biases in the sea surface temperature record. Corrections for the discontinuity are expected to alter the character of mid-twentieth century temperature variability but not estimates of the century-long trend in global-mean temperatures."
Amusement number one is the fact that AGW supporters have tried to explain the 1940s to 1970s 'cooling' using emissions of sulphate aerosols as an excuse - an explanation that I have previously challenged
Amusement number two is the unverifiable data used by Phil Jones et al 1990, which was relied upon by the IPCC to diminish the effect of urbanisation on the surface temperature record.
Amusement number three is that Steve McIntyre of Climate Audit first noted the discontinuity in the sea surface temperature record in June 2005.
Zip over to Climate Audit and read Nature “Discovers” Another Climate Audit Finding
Posted by Paul at 10:07 PM | Comments (53) | TrackBack
What is Wilderness? (Part 6)
"At its heart 'wilderness' is a value judgement.
"As poor old Hawking had to concede nothing is destroyed, it just changes appearance.
"Wilderness is an appearance which is judged by some to have a superior aesthetic to the appearance of things which have had the human hand upon them. In this respect the 'wilderness' issue is a small but still substantial element of the global warming debate, which has its essence in an assumption of natural superiority.
Beyond Port Lincoln, South Australia, May 12, 2007. Photographed by Jennifer Marohasy. Guided by Phil Sawyer.
"But 'wilderness' is more than saying that nature is superior to humanity; it is also saying only a superior human can appreciate that nature is superior. That is, no matter what sophistic context you place on the meaning of 'wilderness' you can never get away from the fact that an aesthetic of 'wilderness', and indeed nature as a whole, can only be realised from the disconnected reality of a civilised vantage point which has kept 'wilderness' and nature at arm's length.
"Humans who live according to the survival dictates of 'wilderness' have no time for generating an aesthetic about it beyond paganest invocations. For the primitive, 'wilderness' would be designated out of fear rather than decadence."
Posted by: cohenite at May 28, 2008 01:51 PM
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part 1 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/000797.html
part 2 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003015.html
part 3 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003044.html
part 4 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003104.html
part 5 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003112.html
Posted by jennifer at 07:32 PM | Comments (12) | TrackBack
Lower Murray Less Sustainable Than Middle Murray
There is a blog at www.fairwateruse.com.au with an article entitled 'Dr Jennifer Marohasy: what is her precise agenda?' suggesting my recent columns in The Land on the River Murray, in particular the situation in South Australia, are agenda driven. The fair-water blog doesn't explain what my agenda is, and doesn't allow comments, so I thought I might respond here.
Farmers along the lower reaches of the River Murray are doing it tough. There have been very low inflows for some years now and even with all the water sent down from the Hume and Darmouth Dam the lower lakes are starting to dry up creating significant salinity and acid sulfate soil problems.
The acid sulfate soil problem could be easily overcome by opening the barrages at the very bottom of the lake system and letting in some sea water.
But as the article at the fair-water blog explains the South Australian want to keep their system fresh:
"Blanchetown, some 270 kilometres from the Murray mouth, is currently around 500mm below sea level. If the Goolwa barrages were opened as she suggests, water would certainly flow, but in the opposite direction to that expected by Dr Marohasy, turning the entire length of Murray from Blanchetown to the mouth into an inlet of the Southern Ocean.
Fair Water Use (Australia) doubts whether many Australians would view this as a “good news” story.
We are not sure how Dr Marohasy is able to engage in finger-pointing whilst her head is so deeply embedded in the sand (or should that be acidic mud). The plight of the Murray-Darling is a result of over-exploitation of the entire basin; the solution must therefore involve bold decisions being taken which will have long-term consequences for all users of the river system, from the cotton plantations in the north to the dairy farms and wineries of the south."
I actually think it would be a good news story in metropolitan Australia if the barrages were opened and salt water flooded in all the way to Blanchetown and a bit beyond. It would be good new for the environment which hasn't experienced seawater in that stretch of the river for perhaps 120 years.
The South Australians like to pretend that the lower lakes were always fresh, but they weren't. The freshwater allocations enabling farming in the region could never be guaranteed.
Right now through the National Water Initiative there is a focus on buying back water allocations from the central Murray Valley. But the focus should perhaps be on the lower Murray.
The lower Murray has less fertile soils, and is part of a much less sustainable system - a system which under natural conditions would be periodically estaurine and unsuitable for conventional farming.
But the South Australians often have politics on their side, most recently in the form of federal environment Water and Climate Change Minister, Penny Wong.
Posted by jennifer at 05:45 PM | Comments (14) | TrackBack
May 28, 2008
Enough Oil 'For At Least 30 Years'
AUSTRALIA'S rural economic forecaster has challenged predictions the world is about to run out of oil, saying it has enough to last at least another 30 years.
ABARE executive director Phillip Glyde told a Senate estimates committee that the peak-oil school of thought, which holds that reserves are near depletion, was wrong.
The Australian: There's enough oil 'for at least 30 years'
Posted by Paul at 04:50 PM | Comments (92) | TrackBack
May 27, 2008
What is Wilderness? (Part 5)
"Absolute wilderness is those boundless places in the eye of the mind of the beholder where no human footprints can be found and for which all those enter there and become lost have no hope of rescue. Only the most reckless trapper or sibylline shaman venture into the wilderness, as a pebble falls to the bottom of the deepest pool, in the hope of returning to civilization with a fortune in furs or a secret wisdom or allegory thereof. Long before crass and foppish adventurers claimed the wilderness it had already fallen to a more mythopoeia mob for which survival was merely one of many options.
"Wilderness exists today, as always, mainly in the mind’s eye. Once long ago it was always just out there beyond the last black stump. Actually, it still is.
"Today it is called Mars or the mid-ocean ridges.
"And, humankind, as always, has little stomach for it."
Beyond Darwin, Northern Australia, Photographed October 3, 2005
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part 1 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/000797.html
part 2 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003015.html
part 3 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003044.html
part 4 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003104.html
Posted by jennifer at 09:29 PM | Comments (18)
The Future of Farming - GM Organics?
At the Genetically Modified Crops Summit in Melbourne last week Dr TJ Higgins from CSIRO Plant Industries suggested there was a place for both organic and GM food crops including by using organic methods to cultivate superior varieties breed through the application of biotechnology. He made particular reference to subsistence farming systems in Africa. It was a thought provoking presentation, but unfortunately I don't have a copy of it or link to it.
Science writer Katie Bird writing in 'Food USA' has suggested something very similar. She has written: "The war between the GM and organic movements has been bitterly fought. However in the midst of a global food crisis the time has come for these old enemies to bury their differences and concentrate on the benefits an alliance may bring. With increasing food prices and an estimated 854 million undernourished people worldwide (FAO 2006 estimates), debate is raging over how to feed the world's growing population. The debate is, however, unhealthily polarised."
Read more here: http://www.foodnavigator-usa.com/news/ng.asp?n=85348-gm-organic-food-security
The issue of rising input costs in conventional farming systems, particularly the cost of fertilizer, was reported by Financial Post reporter Sean Silcoff in a recent article entitled 'The hungry planet: Is fertilizer the 'most important business on Earth?'.
Read more here: http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=537032&p=1
There is much for food for thought in both articles - particularly if you consider the value of combining a superior plant variety with an organic method of production in parts of the world where farmers can't afford much in the way of inputs.
Posted by jennifer at 07:55 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack
Tracks for Cyclists
"It can be quite tricky traversing a car dominated city by bicycle, particularly when you need to travel an unknown route to a new destination.
"But the chances are, someone has cycled that way before you. Bikely.com makes it easy for him or her to show you the best way.
"Put very simply, www.bikely.com helps cyclists share knowledge of good bicycle routes."
Read more here: www.bikely.com
Posted by jennifer at 07:35 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
New Premier, No Pulp Mill for Tasmania?
The new Tasmanian premier, David Bartlett, today said the future of the state's key project, the pulp mill, was in the hands of its proponents and their financiers.
His predecessor, Paul Lennon, tied his political fortunes closely to the mill, which appears to have failed to gain the backing of the ANZ bank.
Read more here: http://theland.farmonline.com.au/news/nationalrural/agribusiness-and-general/general/article/777041.aspx
Of course there has been a sustained environmental campaign against the mill from the Tasmanian Greens and others.
Pulp mills are dotted across Europe but are to be excluded from Tasmania because of the prejudices of some.
I guess the same activists will soon be back to campaigning against the export of product to pulp mills in Japan?
Posted by jennifer at 08:17 AM | Comments (14) | TrackBack
May 26, 2008
Lead Poisoning in Australian Children
ELEVEN per cent of Mount Isa children have lead poisoning, a Queensland Health study has confirmed.
The results, released today in Mt Isa, confirm stories in The Australian in recent weeks and years.
The study shows that of 400 children aged one to four in the mining town, 45 had blood levels higher than 10 micrograms per decilitre.
Read more here: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23741342-601,00.html
story via: Stephen T. Thanks.
Posted by jennifer at 07:37 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack
What is Wilderness? (Part 4)
"Wilderness thus became the domain of the nobility, an environment where they alone could develop and display a number of artistocratic qualities. Friction arose between the peasants - inhabitants of open, unobstructed outdoor spaces - and the noble occupants of the forest, and that friction persisted as long as the peasant felt excluded from a portion of the landscape that he believed was his by right of heritage."
John Brinckerhoff Jackson, 1994
Tasmanian Forest, Photograph taken by Jennifer Marohasy in May 2005
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part 1 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/000797.html
part 2 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003015.html
part 3 http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003044.html
Posted by jennifer at 06:09 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack
Australia’s 2008 State of the Forests Report Released
Australia's State of the Forests Report 2008 was launched by the Hon Tony Burke MP, and Commonwealth Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry on May 21, 2008. According to a media release from Forestry Tasmania:
“The Report is based on data from the public and private sectors and provides the most comprehensive review of the state of our forests ever undertaken,” said Dr Hans Drielsma, Forestry Tasmania’s Executive General Manager.
“There are many positive signs amongst the Report’s finding. For example, Australia’s forests sequester more greenhouse gases from the atmosphere than they emit and therefore help to offset Australia’s contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions.
“The Report shows that managed native forests offset about 5.5%, and plantations about 3.5% of total national greenhouse gas emissions in 2005. Additional storage in wood products offset a further 1% of emissions. This complements the preliminary research done by FT that shows State forests are sequestering carbon over the long term.
“According to the document, since the 2003 Report, the area of Australia’s native forest in formal nature conservation reserves has increased by about 1.5 million hectares to 23 million hectares, from 13% to 16%.
“There are a total of 8.5 million hectares of forest certified as being sustainably managed under the premium (and not-for-profit) Australian Forestry Standard, and about 600,000 hectares certified under the FSC system. Combined, this is an increase of approximately 2.5 million hectares over the previous year.
“The State of the Forests Report shows that over 30 million hectares of public forests (20% of the total forest area) is managed primarily for protection, including of soil and water values; most is in nature conservation reserves.
The Report also confirms the fact that the net loss of woody vegetation (mostly forest) estimated by the Australian Greenhouse Office was 260,000 hectares (0.25%) per year between 2000 and 2004, due mainly to clearing for agriculture and urban development, and not forest practices.
“The report uses the internationally-established Montreal Process framework for criteria and indicators of sustainable forest management and was done by the national-level Montreal Process Implementation Group for Australia (MIG)."
The 2008 report was prepared by the MIG, comprised of representatives from the Australian, state and territory governments. Production of the report was co-ordinated by the Bureau of Rural Sciences on behalf of the MIG.
In addition to the main report, a package of supporting materials will also be launched, comprising a stand-alone executive summary and a series of fact sheets on topical forest issues such as carbon, certification, conservation, employment, fire, sustainable yield, forest type and extent, and water.
You can download the report here: http://adl.brs.gov.au/forestsaustralia/publications/sofr2008.html
Posted by jennifer at 02:59 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Exxon Pulls Funding to Skeptics
NEW YORK - Exxon Mobil Corp is pulling contributions to several groups that have downplayed the risks that greenhouse gas-emissions could lead to global warming, continuing a policy started in 2006 by Chief Executive Rex Tillerson.
Exxon will not contribute to some nine groups in 2008 that it funded in 2007. It said in its corporate citizenship report that the groups' "position on climate change could divert attention from the important discussion on how the world will secure the energy required for economic growth in an environmentally responsible manner."
The groups Exxon has stopped funding include the Capital Research Centre, Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow, Frontiers of Freedom Institute, the George C. Marshall Institute, and the Institute for Energy Research, according to Exxon spokesman Gantt Walton.
Read more here: http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/48489/story.htm
Posted by jennifer at 01:55 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
Decline in Victorian Autumn Rainfall
VICTORIA has suffered a 40 per cent plunge in autumn rainfall since 1950 and climate change is a key factor, a new report has found.
Herald Sun: Victorian Autumn rain down 40 per cent since 1950: CSIRO
Fluctuations in sea-surface temperatures to the north of Australia and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns over the sub-tropical Indian Ocean have been identified as key factors leading to declining rainfalls in south-eastern Australia since 1950.
CSIRO: Understanding autumn rain decline in SE Australia
South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative
Thanks to Gavin and Luke.
Posted by Paul at 01:47 AM | Comments (26) | TrackBack
May 25, 2008
Wompoo Fruit Doves
Photographing this roosting pair of Wompoo Fruit-Doves Ptilinopus magnificus was simply irresistible. Over the years, I have seen many asleep, but never so low to the ground.
They are large doves, reaching almost half-a-metre and are richly coloured, with white head, purple breast, green wings with a conspicuous yellow stripe and bright yellow undergarments.
Their call is deep and resonant, with human-like attributes; "wollack-woo". They feed on a variety of rainforest fruits, which may be quite large in size and are eaten whole.
Posted by neil at 05:48 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
May 23, 2008
Was 1998 the Warmest Year of the Millennium?
Steve McIntyre's recent Ohio State University presentation is now available online. This is an excellent summary of the 'Hockey Stick' debate and the climate debate in general, which extends to 45 pages (including references).
The presentation concludes:
So where does that leave us?
In my opinion, there are serious and probably fatal problems with the main proxies used as supposed evidence against a warm MWP – the Graybill strip bark chronologies, Briffa’s adjustment to the Tornetrask series, the inconsistency between Briffa’s Yamal substitution and the updated Polar Urals series and so on. For every proxy that supposedly shows a MWP cooler than the present, there seems to be one that is just as good or better evidencing the opposite. For the California and Urals proxies so fundamental to the Hockey Stick, the ecological evidence is further evidence against the Graybill and Briffa chronologies being interpretable as temperature proxies.
The selection of proxies in studies displayed by IPCC seems to me to be biased against proxies with a warm MWP. IPCC itself does not carry out any independent due diligence of the type that might be expected in a prospectus. Further, in 2007, as in 2001, the authors involved in preparing the paleoclimate section were active parties in controversies and, in the end, IPCC Fourth Assessment Report strongly reflects their partisan point of view.
Is there a wider lesson here for engineers? We are often told that the “Science is settled”. But engineers, of all people, know that, even if the “science is settled”, the engineering work may have just begun. One would hardly derive the parameters for a chemical process from an article in Nature without an engineering feasibility study.
The most critical question in climate is the estimation of a parameter – is the sensitivity of climate to doubled CO2 1.5, 2.5 or 3.5 deg C? Or could it be 6 deg C or 0.6 deg C?
In some ways, the estimation of such parameters through the development of complicated computer models is reminiscent of activities carried out by engineers. One important difference is that climate scientists typically report their results in highly summary form in journals like Nature, rather than in the 1000-page or 2000-page engineering studies that an aerospace engineering enterprise would produce.
Viewed from this perspective, a remarkable aspect of the climate debate has been the seeming inability of the climate science community to narrow confidence intervals on this estimate. In 1979, the Charney Report (National Research Council 1979) estimated the impact at 3 deg C with a 1.5 degree range either way. In 2007, IPCC AR4 estimates are virtually unchanged. With all the improvements in scientific knowledge and all the efforts of climate scientists over the years, why has the improvement of these confidence intervals proved so resistant? I don’t know, but it’s worth thinking about.
Posted by Paul at 04:51 PM | Comments (91) | TrackBack
Climate Change and Institutional Self-fulfilment by Roger Underwood
I note that the Federal government has created a new agency called “The Department of Climate Change”. The department is not yet 10 months old, but is already well-established with a CEO, two assistant CEOs, four Divisions, thirteen Branches (including one devoted entirely to public affairs), and a large number of full-time public servants.
Given the current hysteria about global warming, and the plethora and complexity of emerging schemes involving carbon-trading, carbon-capping, carbon-off-setting, carbon-emission-minimising and carbon-taxing, I can understand why the government would want a single agency which can keep tabs on all this and drive their political agenda. I am also unsurprised to find that the department’s chief is an economist, and the ranks are studded with economists. This reflects the new focus of the climate change issue: no longer are governments seeking ways to reduce carbon emissions – rather they are seeking to identify the carbon-fighting measures which will have the least possible economic impact.
Nevertheless I am cynical about the creation of a new department whose budget, staffing, political influence and public status is dependent on climate change actually occurring. A Department of Climate Change needs climate change - no climate change will be (for them) a disaster. In other words, the bad-news scenario now has a bureaucratic home, its very own institution, a whole government organisation dedicated to promoting the prophesy of doom to its own advantage.
This phenomenon is not new. I was a junior officer in the Forests Department many years ago, and I recall how the environmentalists accused us of having been “captured” by the timber industry. They also accused the Mines Department of being captured by the mining industry, the Agriculture Department by the agricultural industry and the Fisheries Department by the fishing industry. (Curiously, they never saw any problem with the Department of Environmental Protection being captured by the environmentalist industry).
There is a difference between what the environmentalists call bureaucratic capture, and what I call institutional self-fulfilment. The former involves external influence on an agency by a special interest group to enhance its special interest; the latter is where an agency is working behind the scenes to ensure its own prosperity and survival. A classic historical example of institutional self-fulfilment was the work of the Rabbit Department in Western Australia. The Rabbit Department was created 100 years or so ago to wipe out the rabbit in WA. The agency grew rapidly, attracted a substantial budget, and undertook (on the advice of its senior public servants) a number of massive, expensive and ultimately useless projects. These included two “rabbit-proof” fences thousands of kilometres in length, the construction of which proceeded despite the fact that the rabbit was already west of the surveyed fenceline. I have talked to old farmers and pastoralists who regarded the department as a joke because it was well-known that departmental staff had no intention of eliminating rabbits. To do so would have been to do themselves out of a job. To make matters worse, the WA government (in the way of governments everywhere) was quite happy to come up with the one-off capital cost of building the fences, but not the recurrent costs of maintaining them properly. The fences became a joke amongst rabbits.
Similarly the bushfire issue in Australia is increasingly subject to institutional self-fulfilment. Bushfire responsibilities have been progressively transferred from land management agencies (who are concerned about fire impacts) to Emergency Services (who fight fires). Staff in Emergency Service agencies are trained and equipped for dealing with bushfire emergencies, not for management of the land where bushfires potentially occur. Don’t get me wrong – the firefighters do a great job, and are an essential community service. The trouble is, fire-fighting is their business, their raison d'être. Furthermore, it is well rewarded in terms of favourable media attention, a grateful public, political support and funds. But if there were no bushfires or an insignificant bushfire threat, the fire-fighting services would wither away. Thus their whole focus is on response after a fire starts, with investment in helitaks, water bombers, fire tankers, high tech equipment, super-gizmo headquarters, and lots of staff. What misses out is the essential but unglamorous work of damage mitigation, fire prevention, fuel reduction, fire trail maintenance, community education, law enforcement and so on, i.e., the year-in and year-out recurrent work of minimising the number and impacts of fires, and making them easier and safer to suppress. Far from being rewarded, fuel reduction burning is hated by environmentalists, who depict land management staff who carry out a burning program as irresponsible vandals, effectively undermining their political support. The way the current system is constructed, all the kudos go to the firefighters and none to the fire pre-emptors – a situation very well understood by Emergency Services chiefs.
It seems to me entirely predictable that the processes applying to rabbits and bushfires will also apply to the new Department of Climate Change. If it is to survive and prosper it will need rapidly to become a Department for climate change. I would be very surprised if DCC staff did not already realise that the security of their agency and their opportunities for recognition and promotion will be closely linked to the degree to which the media, community and politicians think that climate change is (i) imminent; (ii) disastrous; (iii) inevitable; and (iv) requiring the sort of complex economic and bureaucratic skills found only among the officers of the Commonwealth Public Service.
I can think of three ways all this might pan out. First, it might become apparent to everyone that climate change is a natural thing governed largely by non-anthropomorphic factors. Second, climate change caused by carbon dioxide emissions might be confirmed, but it will become apparent that there is little Australians can do that will make a significant world-scale difference, even with massive economic self-abuse. Third, the penny might drop that we have real environmental/social problems which demand urgent national attention, i.e., diminishing and more costly oil, management of water resources, declining air quality in cities and killer bushfires. Now there are four issues which each deserve their own Federal department with four divisions, thirteen branches and offices packed with beavering staff!
Roger Underwood is a West Australian forester and writer, Chairman of The Bushfire Front Inc.
Posted by jennifer at 05:16 AM | Comments (24) | TrackBack
May 22, 2008
Is The Evaluation of IPCC Projections Using Short-Term Data Valid?
According to Roger Pielke Sr, the answer is YES. He concludes: Thus the value of global warming of the last 4 years fails to agree with the IPCC projections (the values are not even close!). The agrument that this is too short of a time is spurious unless the modellers can account for where else in their model results the missing Joules went.
Moreover, this is not too short of a time period to compare with the models. Heat, unlike temperature at a single level as used to construct a global average surface temperature trend, is a variable in physics that can be assessed at any time period (i.e. a snapshot) to diagnose the climate system heat content. Temperature not only has a time lag, but a single level represents an insignificant amount of mass within the climate system.
The answer to the question on this weblog “Can the IPCC model projections of global warming be evaluated from just several years of observed data” is YES. The conclusion for the past four years is that the model projections are not skillful on this time period.
Roger Pielke Sr's Climate Science Weblog: Can The IPCC Model Projections Of Global Warming Be Evaluated From Just Several Years Of Data?
Posted by Paul at 05:28 PM | Comments (62) | TrackBack
Poor IPCC Predictions Could Undermine Climate Debate
"POLITICIANS seem to think that the science is a done deal," says Tim Palmer. "I don't want to undermine the IPCC, but the forecasts, especially for regional climate change, are immensely uncertain."
Palmer is a leading climate modeller at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, UK, and he does not doubt that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has done a good job alerting the world to the problem of global climate change. But he and his fellow climate scientists are acutely aware that the IPCC's predictions of how the global change will affect local climates are little more than guesswork. They fear that if the IPCC's predictions turn out to be wrong, it will provoke a crisis in confidence that undermines the whole climate change debate.
On top of this, some climate scientists believe that even the IPCC's global forecasts leave much to be desired. ...
A subscription is required to read the full New Scientist article: Poor forecasting undermines climate debate
Posted by Paul at 05:04 PM | Comments (12) | TrackBack
AGL Begins Emissions Trading Ahead of 2010 National Scheme
A MAJOR Australian energy company has decided not to wait for the start of a national emissions-trading scheme in 2010 and is offering to buy and sell future permits to its customers.
The Australian: AGL makes first trade in emissions scheme
Posted by Paul at 04:17 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack
Cost of Rudd's Kyoto Team Trip to Bali
KEVIN RUDD'S post-election visit to the Bali climate change conference to announce that Australia would ratify the Kyoto Protocol cost taxpayers more than $530,000.
The cost of taking the Prime Minister, five ministers and dozens of advisers and officials to the conference in December has been revealed in response to questions asked by the Opposition Senate leader, Nick Minchin.
The Sydney Morning Herald: Rudd's Kyoto team trip to Bali cost $500,000
Posted by Paul at 06:20 AM | Comments (20) | TrackBack
May 21, 2008
Federal Budget Cuts Mean CSIRO Shake - Up
Up to 100 jobs will be axed at the nation's science research agency as a result of Federal Budget cuts.
Dozens of jobs will be lost and CSIRO laboratories will close in Mildura in Victoria and Rockhampton in Queensland.
Mike Whelan from the CSIRO says Government funding has been cut by more than $60 million over four years.
ABC News: Jobs to be axed, labs will close in CSIRO shake-up
CSIRO Media Release: CSIRO continues to set science directions for future
Posted by Paul at 11:34 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack
Cyclosa Spiders and Stabilimenta
When I first spotted this messy web, I could barely make out the spider. In its own right, it was tiny; a mere 3-4 mm long, but in the circumstances of its concealment, it was marvellously blended into the broader clutter of debris, at the centre of the stabilimentum (conspicuous feature of silk).
Under higher magnification, an enlarged, multi-coloured abdomen, together with a strategic positioning of legs, concealed the bulk of the spider’s cephalothorax. Upon closer scrutiny, its eyes were just distinguishable between its legs.
It turned out to be a species of Cyclosa, renowned for adding prey remains and other debris to their orb-webs. The function of silk decorations is generally associated with defensive strategies, but there is also a notion that it may increase attractiveness to prey.
In my research of Cyclosa, I read that, under threat, the spiders may vibrate the web, bringing motion to the detritus and in so doing, give an impression of a more expansive population.
I also read the abstracts of two independent studies, which seemed to contradict the findings of each other. One showed no significant tendency in attraction to webs with a stabilimentum, whilst the other revealed 150% more insects trapped than for undecorated webs. Both studies agreed that without detritus columns and silk decorations, spiders were attacked at a higher frequency.
Posted by neil at 11:28 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Another New Cosmic Rays and Climate Paper
Jasper Kirkby of CERN has published a new paper examining the potential link between cosmic rays and climate.
The paper concludes:
Numerous palaeoclimatic observations, covering a wide range of time scales, suggest that galactic cosmic ray variability is associated with climate change. The quality and diversity of the observations make it difficult to dismiss them merely as chance associations. But is the GCR flux directly affecting the climate or merely acting as a proxy for variations of the solar irradiance or a spectral component such as UV? Here, there is some palaeoclimatic evidence for associations of the climate with geomagnetic and galactic modulations of the GCR flux, which, if confirmed, point to a direct GCR-climate forcing. Moreover, numerous studies have reported meteorological responses to short-term changes of cosmic rays or the global electrical current, which are unambiguously associated with ionising particle radiation.
Cosmic ray forcing of the climate could in principle operate on all time scales from days to hundreds of millions of years, reflecting the characteristic time scales for changes in the Sun’s magnetic activity, Earth’s magnetic field, and the galactic environment of the solar system. Moreover the climate forcing would act simultaneously, and with the same sign, across the globe. This would both allow a large climatic response from a relatively small forcing and also give rise to simultaneous regional climate responses without any clear teleconnection path. The most persuasive palaeoclimatic evidence for solar/GCR forcing involves sub-orbital (centennial and millennial) climate variability over the Holocene, for which there is no established forcing agent at present. Increased GCR flux appears to be associated with a cooler climate, a southerly shift of the ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) and a weakening of the monsoon; and decreased GCR flux is associated with a warmer climate, a northerly shift of the ITCZ and a strengthening of the monsoon (increased rainfall). The influence on the ITCZ may imply significant changes of upper tropospheric water vapour in the tropics and sub-tropics, potentially affecting both long-wave absorption and the availability of water vapour for cirrus clouds.
The most likely mechanism for a putative GCR-climate forcing is an influence of ionisation on clouds, as suggested by satellite observations and supported by theoretical and modelling studies. The satellite data suggest that decreased GCR flux is associated with decreased low altitude clouds, which are known to exert globally a net radiative cooling effect. Studies of Forbush decreases and solar proton events further suggest that decreased GCR flux may reduce high altitude (polar stratospheric) clouds in the Antarctic. Candidate microphysical processes include ion-induced nucleation of new aerosols from trace condensable vapours, and the formation of relatively highly charged aerosols and cloud droplets at cloud boundaries, which may enhance the formation of ice particles in clouds and affect the collision efficiencies of aerosols with cloud droplets. Although recent observations support the presence of ioninduced nucleation of new aerosols in the atmosphere, the possible contribution of such new particles to changes in the number of cloud condensation nuclei remains an open question. Furthermore, the parts of the globe and atmosphere that would be expected to be the most climatically sensitive to such processes are unknown, although they are likely to involve regions of low existing CCN concentrations.
Despite these uncertainties, the question of whether, and to what extent, the climate is influenced by solar and cosmic ray variability remains central to our understanding of the anthropogenic contribution to present climate change. Real progress on the cosmic ray-climate question will require a physical mechanism to be established, or else ruled out. With new experiments planned or underway, such as the CLOUD facility at CERN, there are good prospects that we will have some firm answers to this question within the next few years.
Kirkby, J. 2008. Cosmic rays and climate. Surveys in Geophysics 28: 333-375.
Posted by Paul at 06:43 PM | Comments (26) | TrackBack
Climate Charlie Part 2: 18 Months to Save the World
Blog readers may remember Prince Charles' previous climate rantings during his 'eco-friendly' trip to the West Indies involving a £280,000 per week Yacht, when he spoke about the "sheer madness" of climate scepticism.
Now Climate Charlie is back with a new pronouncement:
The Prince of Wales has warned that the world faces a series of natural disasters within 18 months unless urgent action is taken to save the rainforests.
In one of his most out-spoken interventions in the climate change debate, he said a £15 billion annual programme was required to halt deforestation or the world would have to live with the dire consequences.
"We will end up seeing more drought and starvation on a grand scale. Weather patterns will become even more terrifying and there will be less and less rainfall," he said.
"We are asking for something pretty dreadful unless we really understand the issues now and [the] urgency of them." The Prince said the rainforests, which provide the "air conditioning system for the entire planet", releasing water vapour and absorbing carbon, were being lost to poor farmers desperate to make a living.
Nothing much to do? Then read the rest of the recent Telegraph article: Prince Charles: Eighteen months to stop climate change disaster
Despite recent and continuing non-warming, it appears that the climate change disaster is moving ever closer. Blair gave us the need for a climate deal in 2 years or adaptation only by 2020, Gore 5 years to an ice-free Arctic, and now we have just 18 months. Rest assured, I will be verifying these predictions on their due dates.
Posted by Paul at 05:17 AM | Comments (19) | TrackBack
May 20, 2008
Flannery: Change the Sky's Colour
Scientist Tim Flannery has proposed a radical solution to climate change which may change the colour of the sky.
But he says it may be necessary, as the "last barrier to climate collapse."
Professor Flannery says climate change is happening so quickly that mankind may need to pump sulphur into the atmosphere to survive.
National Nine News: Change sky's colour, proposes Flannery
Posted by Paul at 08:05 PM | Comments (30) | TrackBack
May 19, 2008
Another Hurricane Model Suggests No Large Increase in Trends
Hurricanes and tropical storms will become less frequent by the end of the century as a result of climate change, US researchers have suggested.
But the scientists added their data also showed that there would be a "modest increase" in the intensity of these extreme weather events.
The findings are at odds with some other studies, which forecast a greater number of hurricanes in a warmer world.
The researchers' results appear in the journal Nature Geoscience.
BBC News website: 'Fewer hurricanes' as world warms
Nature Geoscience: Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions
Abstract:
Increasing sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and measures of Atlantic hurricane activity have been reported to be strongly correlated since at least 1950 raising concerns that future greenhouse-gas-induced warming could lead to pronounced increases in hurricane activity. Models that explicitly simulate hurricanes are needed to study the influence of warming ocean temperatures on Atlantic hurricane activity, complementing empirical approaches. Our regional climate model of the Atlantic basin reproduces the observed rise in hurricane counts between 1980 and 2006, along with much of the interannual variability, when forced with observed sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions. Here we assess, in our model system, the changes in large-scale climate that are projected to occur by the end of the twenty-first century by an ensemble of global climate models, and find that Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm frequencies are reduced. At the same time, near-storm rainfall rates increase substantially. Our results do not support the notion of large increasing trends in either tropical storm or hurricane frequency driven by increases in atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations.
Posted by Paul at 04:48 PM | Comments (64) | TrackBack
Hairy Red Pittosporum
For the sake of appearance, colour can make a world of difference. In tropical rainforests, a bright upper canopy, rich in blue and UV, and a dark understorey, rich in green and orange, contrasts two distinct light environments.
When discretion is important, bright greens blend better in the upper canopy, whereas dark browns have the advantage in the understorey.
When advertising an invitation to treat, as it were, bright blues glow advantageously in the upper canopy, whilst yellow and red signals optimise conspicuousness in understorey. The Hairy Red Pittosporum P. rubiginosum ssp. Wingii, of Australia’s tropical rainforests, is an excellent example of the latter.
Posted by neil at 09:49 AM | Comments (11) | TrackBack
May 18, 2008
Greenpeace Steals Whale Meat?
On Thursday the ABC ran a story from Greenpeace entitled Greenpeace says whalers stealing meat
by North Asia correspondent Shane McLeod:
In Japan, environmental group Greenpeace says it has uncovered evidence of widespread theft of whale meat from the country's scientific whaling program.
Greenpeace has intercepted a box of whale meat it says was illegally taken off the the whaling ship the Nisshin Maru by a member of its crew.
Spokesman Junichi Sato says the meat could be worth thousands of dollars on the black market.
"This is the valuable part of the whale," he said.
"It's made into whale meat bacon, which has a high value."
The whalers responded with a media release 'NISSHIN MARU CREW GIVEN WHALEMEAT FOR FAMILIES':
Nisshin Maru crew members are given a certain amount of whalemeat to take home to their families, Kyodo Senpaku Kaisha in Tokyo, Japan, said today in response to Greenpeace Japan claims.
"The gifting of whalemeat to Nisshin Maru crew members is a time-honoured tradition in recognition of the hard work these men do spending many months a year away from their children and wives," the President of Kyodo Senpaku, Mr Kazuo Yamamura, said today.
"Our sailors spend four months of the year away from their families and are attacked by environmental terrorists while working, so providing a gift of whalemeat for them on their return home is just a little extra we can do for these men.
"It is a sad day when Greenpeace denigrates our crew for being given a few kilos of whalemeat," Mr Yamamura said.
Then the ABC reported in an article entitled Company accuses Greenpeace of whale meat theft on May 17, 2008, that it might have been Greenpeace who actually did the stealing:
A Japanese trucking company has told police that Greenpeace Japan has stolen whale meat, a day after the conservation group accused whalers of embezzlement.
Seino says a box of cargo was taken by Greenpeace from its branch office in the city of Aomori in north-east Japan.
Posted by jennifer at 10:33 AM | Comments (32) | TrackBack
Climate Change and the Commercial Fishery (Again)
I posted a graph from L.B. Klyashtorin via Walter Starck on May 4, 2008, with comment from Walter that "I have never seen a more succint and telling argument to refute carbon dioxide government climate change".
The graph though was not of the highest quality, and so Louis Hissink has had it redrawn:
The original post is here: http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/003005.html
Thanks Louis for the better quality graph.
Posted by jennifer at 10:16 AM | Comments (24) | TrackBack
Why Stop a Debate?
“People only insist that a debate stop when they are afraid of what might be learned if it continues.”
George Will, in reference to climate science
via Fred Singer.
Posted by jennifer at 09:29 AM | Comments (96) | TrackBack
May 16, 2008
Battle of the Blogs: Do Observations Falsify IPCC Projections?
In the blue corner we have Roger Pielke Jr (Prometheus) and Lucia Liljegren (The Blackboard). In the red corner we have James Annan (James' Empty Blog) and Gavin Schmidt (RealClimate).
Interestingly, all four of the contenders accept the the IPCC consensus view on climate change, but Pielke Jr/Liljegren show that IPCC projections are currently falsified by observations, whereas Annan/Schmidt have the opposite view. Read the various blog posts and make up your own minds.
Lucia Concludes:
The IPCC projections remain falsified. Comparison to data suggest they are biased. The statistical tests accounts for the actual weather noise in data on earth.
The argument that this falsification is somehow inapplicable because the earth data falls inside the full range of possibilities for models is flawed. We know why the full range of climate models is huge: It contains a large amount of “climate model noise” due to models that are individually biased relative to the system of interest: the earth.
It will continue to admit what I have always admitted: When applying hypothesis tests to a confidence limit of 5%, one does expect to be wrong 5% of the time. It is entirely possible that the current falsification fall in the category of 5% incorrect falsifications. If this is so, the “falsified” diagnosis will reverse, and not we won’t see another one anytime soon.
However, for now, the IPCC projections remain falsified, and will do so until the temperatures pick up. Given the current statistical state ( a period when large “type 2″ error is expected) it is quite likely we will soon see “fail to falsify” even if the current falsification is a true one. But if the falsification is a “true” falsification, as is most likely, we will see “falsifications” resume. In that case, the falsification will ultimately stick.
For now, all we can do is watch the temperature trends of the real earth.
Posted by Paul at 06:54 PM | Comments (113) | TrackBack
World Wildlife Populations 'Plummeting'
Between a quarter and a third of the world's wildlife has been lost since 1970, according to data compiled by the Zoological Society of London.
Populations of land-based species fell by 25%, marine by 28% and freshwater by 29%, it says.
Humans are wiping out about 1% of all other species every year, and one of the "great extinction episodes" in the Earth's history is under way, it says.
Pollution, farming and urban expansion, over-fishing and hunting are blamed.
BBC News Website: Wildlife populations 'plummeting'
Posted by Paul at 05:25 PM | Comments (82) | TrackBack
May 15, 2008
Climate Science Round Up from This Week's Nature
Quenching forest fires leads to more carbon in the air, says new research carried out in Californian forests. The discovery suggests that forests spared from fire may release more of the greenhouse gas into the air than they absorb.
Decades of suppressing natural fires has increased the number of surviving trees in California's forests. But this growth has been at the expense of larger trees, which are less resilient to drought and other stresses than smaller, younger trees, resulting in a decline in the total amount of carbon stored in these forests.
Nature News.com: Forest-fire management 'raises carbon emissions'
Governments should work together to build the supercomputers needed for future predictions that can capture the detail required to inform policy.
Few scientific creations have had greater impact on public opinion and policy than computer models of Earth's climate. These models, which unanimously show a rising tide of red as temperatures climb worldwide, have been key over the past decade in forging the scientific and political consensus that global warming is a grave danger.
Now that that consensus is all but universal, climate modellers are looking to take the next step, and to convert their creations from harbingers of doom to tools of practical policy. That means making their simulations good enough to guide hard decisions, from targets for carbon dioxide emissions on a global scale to the adaptations required to meet changing rainfall and extreme weather events on regional and local scales.
Today's modelling efforts, though, are not up to that job. They all agree on the general direction in which the climate will move as greenhouse gases build up, but they do not reliably capture all the nuances of today's climate, let alone tomorrow's. Moreover, each model differs from reality in different ways.
Editorial: The next big climate challenge
Methane outbursts from seafloor deposits are unlikely to have been the sole cause of an extreme episode of global warming around the time of the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum some 55 million years ago.
Research Highlights: Palaeoclimate: Methane didn't act alone
Data laboriously extracted from an Antarctic ice core provide an unprecedented view of temperature, and levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane, over the past 800,000 years of Earth's history.
The data further reinforce the tight link between greenhouse gases and climate, a link maintained by as-yet only partially understood feedbacks in the Earth system. Variations in methane levels are most probably caused by variations in the influence of temperature and rainfall on wetlands in the tropics and boreal (high-northern-latitude) regions. Carbon dioxide variability is almost universally viewed as an oceanic phenomenon, a consequence of the large pools of carbon sequestered there. Changes in ocean circulation, biological productivity, carbon dioxide solubility and other aspects of ocean chemistry have been implicated, but the exact mix of mechanisms is not clear.
News and Views: Palaeoclimate: Windows on the greenhouse
The climate is changing, and so are aspects of the world's physical and biological systems. It is no easy matter to link cause and effect — the latest attack on the problem brings the power of meta-analysis to bear. It uses a larger database than the recent IPCC report, and it takes account of land-use change and other complications. The authors conclude that anthropogenic climate change is affecting physical and biological systems globally. But as Francis Zwiers and Gabriele Hegerl point out in News & Views, this proof based on the principle of joint attribution stops short of the statistical certainty that would be provided by 'end-to-end' models linking human activity directly to the observed changes, rather than via effects on the climate system.
News and Views: Climate change: Attributing cause and effect
Significant changes in physical and biological systems are occurring on all continents and in most oceans, with a concentration of available data in Europe and North America. Most of these changes are in the direction expected with warming temperature. Here we show that these changes in natural systems since at least 1970 are occurring in regions of observed temperature increases, and that these temperature increases at continental scales cannot be explained by natural climate variations alone. Given the conclusions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely to be due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, and furthermore that it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica, we conclude that anthropogenic climate change is having a significant impact on physical and biological systems globally and in some continents.
Article: Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change
Changes in past atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations can be determined by measuring the composition of air trapped in ice cores from Antarctica. So far, the Antarctic Vostok and EPICA Dome C ice cores have provided a composite record of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels over the past 650,000 years1, 2, 3, 4. Here we present results of the lowest 200 m of the Dome C ice core, extending the record of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration by two complete glacial cycles to 800,000 yr before present. From previously published data1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and the present work, we find that atmospheric carbon dioxide is strongly correlated with Antarctic temperature throughout eight glacial cycles but with significantly lower concentrations between 650,000 and 750,000 yr before present. Carbon dioxide levels are below 180 parts per million by volume (p.p.m.v.) for a period of 3,000 yr during Marine Isotope Stage 16, possibly reflecting more pronounced oceanic carbon storage. We report the lowest carbon dioxide concentration measured in an ice core, which extends the pre-industrial range of carbon dioxide concentrations during the late Quaternary by about 10 p.p.m.v. to 172–300 p.p.m.v.
Letter: High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000–800,000 years before present
Atmospheric methane is an important greenhouse gas and a sensitive indicator of climate change and millennial-scale temperature variability1. Its concentrations over the past 650,000 years have varied between 350 and 800 parts per 109 by volume (p.p.b.v.) during glacial and interglacial periods, respectively2. In comparison, present-day methane levels of 1,770 p.p.b.v. have been reported3. Insights into the external forcing factors and internal feedbacks controlling atmospheric methane are essential for predicting the methane budget in a warmer world3. Here we present a detailed atmospheric methane record from the EPICA Dome C ice core that extends the history of this greenhouse gas to 800,000 yr before present. The average time re