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November 30, 2007
Flying Foxes in the Heat of Debate
Flying foxes to wilt with climate change, by ABC Science Online's Stephen Pincock, contends that new research shows some of Australia's flying foxes face a grave threat from extreme temperatures expected to become more frequent with climate change.
Dr Nicola Markus, an Australian expert on their ecology and co-author of this new research, says, "It bodes extremely badly for the black flying foxes."
In early 2002, she and an international team of researchers witnessed the deaths of more than 1,300 grey-headed and black flying foxes at Dallis Park in northern New South Wales (most of them females and their dependent young).
"On that day, what we saw was, very simply, that the flying foxes died of heat stress," Dr Markus said. The temperatures, which exceeded 42 degrees Celsius, killed more than 1,300 of the animals. State-wide, more than 3,500 flying foxes fell to the soaring temperatures in that single heatwave.
Flying foxes are keystone species for forest environments. They have also been central to a taxonomic debate, which asks, are they really primates?
In 1986, Dr. John D. Pettigrew published his findings that all flying fox species (examined) shared the half-dozen brain pathways that were otherwise unique to primates. Under a microscope, their brain affinities with lemurs were difficult to tell apart.
Megabats and microbats had been historically grouped together because of the obvious similarities of their handwings. However, Dr. Pettigrew observed that the differences between to two groups included such things as diet, dentition, chromosomes, world geographic distribution, sperm, biochemistry, parasitology and numerous features of behavior. He also hypothesised that the two groups evolved flight separately, with the mega-chiroptera in the Tertiary era and the micro-chiroptera, much earlier, in the Cretaceous.
Posted by neil at 08:41 AM | Comments (59) | TrackBack
November 29, 2007
The Ideal Average World Temperature
Nigel Lawson gave an insightful address to the group who gathered for the Institute of Public Affair's 2007 HV McKay Lecture in Sydney on Monday. He spoke on the politics and economics of climate change and commented:
"Is it really plausible that there is an ideal average world temperature, which by some happy chance has recently been visited on us, from which small departures in either direction would spell disaster? Moreover, while a sudden change would indeed be disruptive, what is at issue here is the prospect of a very gradual change over a hundred years and more.
In any case, average world temperature is simply a statistical artefact. The actual experienced temperature varies
enormously in different parts of the globe; and man, whose greatest quality is his adaptability, has successfully colonized most of it.
Two countries at different ends of the earth, both of which are generally considered to be economic success stories, are Finland and Singapore. The average annual temperature in Helsinki is less than 5ºC. That in Singapore is in excess of 27ºC — a difference of more than 22ºC. If man can successfully cope with that, it is not immediately apparent why he should not be able to adapt to a change of 3ºC, when he is given a hundred years in which to do so."
The entire speech can be found and downloaded here: http://ipa.org.au/publications/publisting_detail.asp?pubid=695
Posted by jennifer at 06:51 AM | Comments (70) | TrackBack
November 28, 2007
Humback and Fin Whale Numbers Misrepresented in Popular Press: ICR Media Release
Mr. Minoru Morimoto, Director General of The Institute of Cetacean Research (ICR) in Tokyo, said today that journalists and editors are misinforming the public and abusing the credibility of the World Conservation Union (IUCN). Many of the news articles and stories about Japan's whale research have incorrectly cited the World Conservation Union (IUCN) listing of humpback whales as "vulnerable" and fin whales as "endangered".
The fact is that the IUCN's website for its "Red List" clearly says that these listings are "out of date". Both the assessment of these species and the criteria used to classify them are "out of date." This is because the assessments were done in 1996 and used 1994 criteria which have since been revised. The IUCN has received updated assessments from its expert group but these have not yet been made public or adopted. Mr. Morimoto said that journalists and editors should at a minimum acknowledge this when they cite the IUCN listing of humpback and fin whale or not use them inappropriately.
In a similar way, articles have used the IWC Scientific Committee estimate of 42,000 to say that the current population of humpback whales in the Southern Hemisphere is "around 40,000" but that estimate applies to 1997/1998. With the population growing at 10% per year, (IWC SC estimate for East Australia 1981-96, 12.4% and West Australia 1977-91,10.9%) it would now be more than 2.5 times what it was at that time and more than 3 times what it was when IUCN did their assessment.
Mr. Morimoto said that it is misleading and confusing to readers to simply quote the IUCN's listing which the IUCN itself says is out of date. He urged journalists and editors not to simply copy the rhetoric of the anti-whaling NGOs but to do their homework and present more precise reporting. Mr. Morimoto reiterated his earlier statement that Japan's research makes a valuable contribution to the management of Antarctic whale species to ensure that any future commercial whaling regime is robust and sustainable and that a take of 50 humpback whales would have no impact on the population or the whale-watching industry.
Web links to IUCN World Conservation Union Red Listing of Humpback and Fin whales (see "annotations" in "Assessment Information") and the International Whaling Commission website.
Humpback whale: http://www.iucnredlist.org/search/details.php/13006/all
Fin whale: http://www.iucnredlist.org/search/details.php/2478/summ
IWC population estimates: http://www.iwcoffice.org/conservation/estimate.htm
Posted by jennifer at 08:36 PM | Comments (73) | TrackBack
New Group Rejects "Kyoto 2": CSCC Media Release
A new Report produced by a coalition of over 40 prominent civil society organisations from 33 countries says that governments should reject calls for a post-Kyoto treaty (“Kyoto 2”) with binding limits on carbon emissions. The report says a better strategy would be to focus on removing barriers to adaptation, such as subsidies, taxes and regulations that hinder technological innovation and economic growth.
From 3-14 December, government officials will be in Bali, Indonesia, for climate talks. They are set to discuss the establishment of a new treaty, dubbed “Kyoto 2”, which would require all countries to limit emissions of greenhouse gases.
The Civil Society Report on Climate Change concludes that such emissions caps would be counterproductive: they would undermine economic development, harm the poor, and would be unlikely to address the problem of climate change in a meaningful way.
It includes four chapters:
1) "Human Ecology and Human Behavior: Climate change and health in perspective" By Paul Reiter http://www.csccc.info/reports/report_22.pdf
2) "Death and Death Rates due to Extreme Weather Events: Global and U.S. Trends, 1990-2006" By Indur M. Goklany http://www.csccc.info/reports/report_23.pdf
3) "Weathering Global Warming in Agriculture and Forestry: It can be done with free markets" By Douglas Southgate and Brent Sohngen http://www.csccc.info/reports/report_24.pdf
4) "The Political Economy of Global Warming, Rent Seeking and Freedom" By Wolfgang Kasper http://www.csccc.info/reports/report_25.pdf
“Kyoto 2 is the wrong solution. Such a treaty would harm billions of poor people, making energy and energy-dependent technologies, such as clean water, more expensive, and would perpetuate poverty by retarding growth”, said Kendra Okonski, Environment Programme Director of International Policy Network, one of the 41 organisations who published the report.
“Given that nations are having trouble complying with the relatively small emissions cuts required under Kyoto, the economic and social consequences of a Kyoto 2 Treaty could be devastating”, added Ms Okonski.
The Civil Society Report argues that adaptation is the best way to enable people to deal with a changing climate. That means:
• Enabling people to utilise technologies capable of reducing the incidence of disease, such as clean water, sanitation, and medicines.
• Deploying technologies – e.g. flood defences, roads, sturdier houses, and early warning systems – that reduce the risk of death from weather-related disasters.
• Removing barriers to the use of modern agricultural technologies, which would better enable people to adapt to changing conditions.
• Eliminating subsidies, taxes, and regulations that undermine economic growth – thereby enabling people better to address current and future problems.
Other conclusions in the Civil Society Report on Climate Change include:
• Over the course of the past century, deaths and death rates from weather-related natural disasters have declined substantially. It appears that the main drivers of this reduction have been improvements in wealth and technology.
• Mortality from extreme weather events is far more strongly affected by the technologies deployed by humans – such as the construction of houses, roads, and dams – than by climate.
• Human ecology and human behaviour are the key determinants of the transmission of infectious disease. Obsessive emphasis on climate is unwarranted because, given suitable economic circumstances, straightforward strategies are available to ensure the public health.
• If adaptation is not unduly restricted, production of food and other agricultural products, as well as forestry products, will keep pace with growing human demands.
• Foreign aid is being used as a ‘carrot’ to induce poor countries to restrict their emissions. But aid has mostly been wasted or even counterproductive. While there is a case for refocusing aid on projects that have a stronger chance of providing net benefits, increasing aid would do more harm than good.
• Finally, the stick of trade sanctions have been threatened as a means of enforcing the global cap – yet such sanctions harm both parties; a clear lose - lose scenario.
------------------------------------
The Civil Society Report on Climate Change, Produced by the Civil Society Coalition on Climate Change, Published Tuesday 27 November 2007, ISBN 1-905041-15-2, 100 pp.
The Civil Society Coalition on Climate Change seeks to educate the public about the science and economics of climate change in an impartial manner. It was established as a response to the many biased and alarmist claims about human-induced climate change, which are being used to justify calls for intervention and regulation. The coalition includes the Institute of Public Affairs.
Posted by jennifer at 08:36 PM | Comments (31) | TrackBack
November 27, 2007
The Phenomenological Approach to Estimating the Effect of Total Solar Irradiance on Climate
I’ve mentioned before that the flawed ‘hockey stick’ temperature reconstruction is used to reduce the role of the sun in climate change. Little pre-industrial temperature variability would help support the claim that 20th century warming is mainly anthropogenic in origin. Scafetta and West have recently published a continuation of their phenomenological approach to estimating the role of total solar irradiance (TSI) in climate change, which compares TSI reconstructions with temperature reconstructions.
Interestingly, Scafetta and West conclude that: “if we assume that the latest temperature and TSI secular reconstructions, WANG2005 and MOBERG05, are accurate, we are forced to conclude that solar changes significantly alter climate, and that the climate system responds relatively slowly to such changes with a time constant between 6 and 12 years. This would suggest that the large-scale computer models of climate could be significantly improved by adding additional Sun-climate coupling mechanisms.”
I should point out that solar irradiance is only one potential solar effect on climate and the IPCC rate the ‘level of scientific understanding’ (LOSU) of ‘solar irradiance’ as ‘low.’ Even the contrived Lockwood and Frohlich (2007) paper pointed to the possibility of an unknown ‘solar amplifier’ and the expected fall in future solar activity. Furthermore, it is possible that equivalent solar forcing is ‘different’ to greenhouse gas forcing.
Anyway, the JGR paper entitled: ‘Phenomenological reconstructions of the solar signature in the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature records since 1600’ by N. Scafetta and B. J. West can be found here. It’s a good read, so enjoy!
Posted by Paul at 07:44 PM | Comments (94)
Bans Lifted on GM Food Crops
Jen,
NSW and Victoria have just lifted the ban on genetically modified (GM) crops!
It wont take them long to see the benifits either... won't take long before South Australia and Western Australia freak out because the yeilds back in the eastern states blow them away!
It's about time Aussies embraced farming of the future.
Regards,
Mick
Information on the review of the moratorium on GM canola in Victoria can be found at the Victorian Department of Primary Industries website including the Review Panel report.
The Indepedent Review GM Crop Moratorium Final Report can be found at the NSW Department of Primary Industries website.
Posted by jennifer at 04:25 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack
November 26, 2007
Junk Science and Japanese Whaling: A Note from Annie
Japanese whalers are on their way to the Southern Ocean. This JARPA II fleet has attracted more attention than usual because of the inclusion of humpback whales in the annual kill quota.
The mother ship, the Nisshin Maru, has “RESEARCH” emblazoned on her hull, and when questioned on the humpback whale component of this year’s quota, spokesperson Hideki Moronuki said “Japan is conducting truly scientific research activities, we have to decide anything from the viewpoint of science.” However, a recent publication in science journal Nature questioned the science behind Japan’s research program and when the program was reviewed by the International Whaling Commission (IWC) in late 2006, the following was found:
“JARPA had the potential to improve management of minke whales in the Southern Ocean, but such an outcome has not been realised, despite nearly two decades of effort by a large and well-funded research laboratory in Tokyo."
Major JARPA objectives are largely unachieved, notably:
– the data were not accepted under the IWC’s method for managing whale populations and assigning catch limits;
– efforts to estimate natural mortality had produced confidence intervals that ‘spanned such a wide range that the parameter remains effectively unknown’;
– data on trends in abundance were so imprecise that they could be interpreted as consistent with anything from a decline to an increase;
– efforts to elucidate the role of whales in the Antarctic marine ecosystem had led to ‘relatively little progress, even allowing for the complexities of the subject.
“Despite these failings the government of Japan stated at the 2007 International Whaling Commission Scientific Committee meeting that the objectives and methods of the full-scale JARPA II program would remain unchanged and the justification for the numbers of animals killed remains unclear”.
The 'Plan for the Second Phase of the Japanese Whale Research Program under Special Permit in the Antarctic (JARPA II) – Monitoring of the Antarctic Ecosystem and Development of New Management Objectives for Whale Resources’ says “Changes in the pregnancy rate and age at sexual maturity are very important since they indicate changes in the trend of abundance or shifts in prey conditions.” A sample size of 50 for both fin and humpback whales was chosen, despite the fact that during the 18-year JARPA program no significant trends could be found for these parameters in minke whales regardless of having “an annual sample size that was almost an order of magnitude greater than those planned for humpback and fin whales.”
Will JARPA II tell us more about these species in order to manage them effectively?
The IWC already has a comprehensive assessment process in order to evaluate whale stocks. In 2006 a Comprehensive Assessment of Southern Hemisphere humpback whales was held, and attended by Japan. Research priorities included: “Describe the genetic structure of seven putative southern hemisphere breeding populations; quantify the complex linkages between high-latitude feeding grounds and breeding stocks; and, estimate the abundance of breeding stocks.”
Some of this research is already being conducted by Australian scientists using non-lethal methods. JARPA II’s lethal research will not address any of these objectives, although the non-lethal sightings component will. The researchers write that “Japan’s proposal to kill humpback whales is not scientifically credible, and will potentially disrupt ongoing non-lethal research programs directed at filling knowledge gaps identified for the Comprehensive Assessment.”
The whole question of science’s role in JARPA II is further brought into question by the authors of the Nature article (all members of the IWC Scientific Committee)who have stated, “The promulgation of a lethal research program that targets low-priority science, with a demonstrably low likelihood of achieving its stated objectives, appears unsupportable when viewed solely in a scientific context…the Government of Japan remains impervious to any influence from the broader scientific community. It is time to acknowledge that the debate about research whaling has little or nothing to do with science. Indeed, by insisting that this form of whaling is scientifically valid, Japan forces the Scientific Committee to remain dead-locked, ultimately to the detriment of the IWC’s credibility and function.”
Perhaps Japan’s justification for her research is best summed up by Minoru Morimoto, head of the Institute for Cetacean Research, “Japan’s research makes a valuable contribution to the management of Antarctic whale species to ensure that any future commercial whaling regime is robust and sustainable to provide a reliable food source for generations to come.”
by Annie in Australia
Posted by jennifer at 06:53 PM | Comments (49) | TrackBack
UN Climate Circus Rolls into Bali on a CO2 Cloud
"IT HAS been billed as the summit that could help save the planet, but the latest United Nations climate change conference on the paradise island of Bali has itself become a major contributor to global warming.
Calculations suggest flying the 15,000 politicians, civil servants, green campaigners and television crews into Indonesia will generate the equivalent of 100,000 tonnes of extra CO2. That is similar to the entire annual emissions of the African state of Chad."
Climate scientists such as Leo Di Caprio, Arnie Schwarzenegger, and Al Gore could be there. WWF, formerley known as the 'World Wildlife Fund,' are said to be sending at least 32 staff. Unfortunately Biggsy has a real and potentially useful job, in order to earn a living, so won't be able to attend. However, UK taxpayers will be funding the £330 per night suites for the British delegation. UK Environment minister Hilary Benn (he's a bloke) seems well qualified with a degree in Russian and East European Studies. Rumour has it that the next UN climate conference will take place on the moon, so that the delegates can observe the effects of humanity on the Earth. Be there, or be square.
Read the article in The Sunday Times: 'UN climate circus rolls in on CO2 cloud'
Posted by Paul at 05:59 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
November 25, 2007
Why Didn't John Howard Ratify the Kyoto Protocol?
During his 11 years as Prime Minister John Howard oversaw the introduction of 20 major pieces of environmental legislation by four different environment ministers. This resulted in the end of broad scale tree clearing in western Queensland, the declared of large areas of the Great Barrier Reef out of bounds to fishermen, and through the $10 billion National Plan for Water Security the potential return of very large volumes of water to the Murray River. Other initiatives included the phasing out of incandescent light bulbs and support for “solar cities”. But John Howard may only be remembered as the Australian Prime Minister who refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol.
He was Prime Minister during a period when climate change became the global issue and the grand gesture important for people looking for symbolism as much as real action on this and other environmental issues. But Howard has never been particularly good at conspicuous compassion. Rather he listened to environmental activists with impressive titles such as ‘professor’, and he distributed hundreds of millions of dollars to groups like the World Wildlife Fund (WWF). Indeed under the Howard government there was record spending on the environment including $4.3 billion in his government’s last budget compared with less than $500 million in Labor’s last year of office (1995-96).
But after 11 years, lots of legislation and billions of dollars, John Howard is still seen as a pseudo-environmentalist – is this a fair assessment? And in particular, why didn’t Howard ratify Kyoto, given that as a consequence of the legislation banning broad scale tree clearing his government was on track to meet its targets uner the Kyoto Protocol?
Posted by jennifer at 12:44 PM | Comments (76) | TrackBack
November 24, 2007
Australia to Ratify Kyoto – Labor Wins Federal Election
Australians voted today in a federal election and after 11 years of the Conservative Howard government have voted for change and a new Labor government.
Labor went to the electorate very clearly stating that if it won, it would ratify the Kyoto Protocol – something Prime Minister John Howard has resisted.
A Rudd Labor Government has also promised to:
• Finish the most comprehensive review of the costs for Australia of climate change (the Garnaut Review);
• Establish a 20 per cent renewable energy target to be achieved by 2020;
• Finalise the design of a national emissions trading scheme;
• Establish a $500 million fund to boost Renewable Energy; and
• Establish a $500 million fund for the development of Clean Coal technology.
My congratulations to Labor leader Kevin Rudd with his swing of about 6% but in particular my congratulations to my brother Jim Turnour who has won the Far North Queensland seat of Leichhardt with an incredibly large swing of more than 14%.
My brother Jim and his wife Tiffany.
I would also like to congratulation my friend Shane Neumann for his win in the seat of Blair.
Incredibly it looks like the Prime Minister John Howard has lost his seat of Bennelong to high profile ex-ABC journalist Maxine McKew.
Posted by jennifer at 09:03 PM | Comments (12) | TrackBack
November 22, 2007
Forget the Earth, Now We are Killing the Universe
Forget about the threat that mankind poses to the Earth: our activities may be shortening the life of the universe too.
The startling claim is made by a pair of American cosmologists investigating the consequences for the cosmos of quantum theory, the most successful theory we have. Over the past few years, cosmologists have taken this powerful theory of what happens at the level of subatomic particles and tried to extend it to understand the universe, since it began in the subatomic realm during the Big Bang.
Sounds like a job for the UN Intergalactic Panel on Cosmological Change.
The Telegraph: Mankind 'shortening the universe's life'
Posted by Paul at 11:47 PM | Comments (19) | TrackBack
Lomborg: Paint Cities White
"Amid all the talk of cutting carbon emissions, we never hear about the simple solutions that can make a vast difference to temperatures."
The Guardian: 'Paint it white'
Posted by Paul at 05:44 PM | Comments (32) | TrackBack
Lesser Sooty Owl
The piercing, descending shriek of the Lesser Sooty Owl Tyto multipunctata sounds much like a falling bomb, without the explosion at the end. It has enormous eyes and exceptional hearing, allowing it to hunt in almost total darkness.
It is a formidable rainforest predator of almost all the creatures I have posted at this weblog over the past few years.
Formerly classified as a sub-species of the much larger and darker Sooty Owl Tyto tenebricosa, it has since been re-classified into a distinct species that is endemic to Australia.
Posted by neil at 12:20 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
November 21, 2007
Some Time by the Murray River
I have enjoyed spending the last couple of weeks living on a bank of the Murray River just upstream of Barham.
The bird life is especially amazing with wood ducks in the river, white ibis, sulphur-crested cockatoos and galahs on the lawn, superb blue wrens in the bush outside my office window, swift parrots in the red gums and very black ravens drinking out of the bird bath.
I saw a lot of black swans when I visited the salt evaporation ponds at Wakool. I saw a shag in the Gunbower Forest. There were two pelicans at the Toorrumbarry Weir.
Just downstream of the Toorumbarry Weir, November 6, 2007
I have started most days with a large glass of Murray River water and on the best days finish with a swim in the river.
While many of the forests, tributaries and anabranches in this Murray Valley section of the long Murray River are suffering from a lack of water, the river itself is running strongly with releases from Hume Dam at the top of the system destined for South Australia at the other end.
Anyway, tomorrow morning I’m off to Sydney.
Thanks Faye and Ken for your hospitality! And Daryl, I took photographs at Riverdale this morning which I will post at this blog in the next week or two with comment from the MDBC report.
Posted by jennifer at 03:29 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack
2000 Years of Global Temperatures
Roy Spencer has taken Craig Loehle's 2000 year temperature reconstruction to 1995 and added the HadCRUT3 to 2007. Obviously, the proxy temperature reconstructions during the Medieval Warm Period would have larger error bars than the current (instrumental) temperatures, so one shouldn't put too much emphasis on small differences between the current peak and the MWP peaks.
Roy Spencer also looked at what the HadCRUT3 trace would look like if temperatures now remained constant for another 15 years (until 2022)...in that case, the temperature trace almost reaches the +0.6 deg C line (just barely
exceeding the warmest MWP peak).
We can clearly see that the coldest part of the Little Ice Age was unprecedented in the past 2000 years, and the subsequent recovery to the Modern Warm Period.
Posted by Paul at 03:32 AM | Comments (149) | TrackBack
November 20, 2007
Does the King Have No Clothes or 'The Wrong Trousers?'
Just in case no-one noticed, the IPCC finally dropped the façade of being a scientific rather than a political body following the publication of the Synthesis Report. The IPCC now stands naked behind the Kyoto Protocol as the policy needed to avoid a computer modelled CO2 driven climate catastrophe.
Meanwhile, the report seems to have had a profound effect on UK prime minister Gordon Brown. Despite being previously advised that the UK could not meet the EU target of 20% of energy coming from renewables by 2020, he now intends to set a much higher target. Furthermore, he seems poised to replace the draft climate change bill target of a 60% reduction in the UKs CO2 emissions by 2050 with an 80% target. Details of any strategy designed to achieve such ambitious targets so far seem to be limited to the desire to seek the end of the single use plastic bag and the setting up of a 'green hotline' to advise people how to reduce their environmental impact. He also claims that there will be hundreds of thousands of 'green jobs' created, with no mention of how many may be lost.
Enter Gwyn Prins and Steve Rayner to point out that Kyoto is 'The Wrong Trousers: Radically Rethinking Climate Policy'
Executive Summary
We face a problem of anthropogenic climate change, but the Kyoto Protocol of 1997 has failed to tackle it. A child of summits, it was doomed from the beginning, because of the way that it came into being, Kyoto has given only an illusion of action. It has become the sole focus of our efforts, and, as a result, we have wasted fifteen years.
We have called this essay “The Wrong Trousers” evoking the Oscar-winning animated film of that name. In that film, the hapless hero, Wallace, becomes trapped in a pair of automated ‘Techno Trousers’. Whereas he thought they would make his life easier, in fact, they take control and carry him off in directions he does not wish to go.
We evoke this image to suggest how the Kyoto Protocol has also marched us involuntarily to unintended and unwelcome places. Just as the enticingly electro-mechanical “Techno Trousers” offered the prospect of hugely increasing the wearer’s power and stride, so successful international treaties leverage the power of signatory states in a similar way, making possible together what cannot be achieved alone. The Kyoto Wrong Trousers have done something similar to those who fashioned and subscribed to the agreement. To set a new course, we need to understand how we have gone wrong so far. Accordingly, the essay proceeds in three sections, as follows:
Continue reading the entire essay.
Posted by Paul at 11:44 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack
Australian News Round Up from Luke Walker
Few MPs would have worked harder to defend their seats at this election than Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull, whose blue ribbon Sydney seat of Wentworth is under siege not just from Labor but a range of environmental activists, mostly coalescing around the Greens.
But in the second week of the campaign, Mr Turnbull found the time to announce that the Government, already in caretaker mode, would bankroll to the tune of $10 million the investigation of an untried Russian technology that aims to trigger rainfall from the atmosphere, even when there are no clouds.
ABC News: 'Turnbull pumps $10m into rainmaking gamble'
From the deck of the research ship Weatherbird II, a California company hopes to prove a controversial theory that putting iron dust in the ocean can produce enough plankton to help save the Earth.
The mission of the company behind the ship, Planktos Corp, is to research whether "iron seeding," or "iron enrichment" - dumping tons of pulverised iron ore into the ocean - can catalyse the growth of microscopic algae that will then suck carbon out of the atmosphere.
ABC News: 'Iron touted as tonic for climate-saving plankton'
Foreign Affairs Minister Alexander Downer says Australia will be pushing for a declaration on climate change at a meeting of Asian nations in Singapore.
ABC New: 'Downer to push for climate change declaration'
Posted by Paul at 05:38 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack
Fantastic phasmids
Macleay’s Spectre Extatosoma tiaratum would have to be one of the most spectacular insects in the Daintree rainforest. Males readily fly in search of mates, but much larger females are incapable of flight. First instar nymphs resemble ants.
Phasmids are well represented in the Wet Tropics with some of the largest insects in the world. The Titan Stick Insect Acrophylla titan blends very well into the forest with its stick-like appearance and can attain a length of 250 mm.
Posted by neil at 03:09 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
Cool Round Up from Marc Morano
New UN Warming Summary Met by Snow & Record Cold - Sampling of Articles in past few days
New Zealand Vinyards Failing Due to "Record Cold"
Excerpt: The winery made a rights issue announcement on Tuesday in an underwritten bid to raise about $1.5 million for working capital after the record cold in December severely affected their fruit set and stripped them of 75 per cent of their 2007 harvest. "It doesn't take much to write off a million bucks after that. Now we need to build stock levels given that we were so very short on the vintage."
http://times-age.co.nz/localnews/storydisplay.cfm?storyid=3755526&thesection=localnews&thesubsection=&thesecondsubsection=
South Americans 'wondering if Winter will ever end' as Buenos Aires sees lowest temps in 90 years
Excerpt: Residents in Argentina and Brazil are wondering if this winter will ever end. Buenos Aires recorded this Thursday (November 15th) the lowest November temperature in 90 years. Temperature in the Downtown weather station reached 2.5C. Since records began more than a century ago, only two days had colder lows in November. It was in 1914 (1.6) and 1917 (2.4). And ninety years ago the urban heat island effect was much less pronounced than nowadays. In Brazil's southernmost province Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil temperatures fell to 2.3C. In Sao Joaquim Monday's (Nov., 12) the temperature was -1.2 C with frost.
http://my.telegraph.co.uk/reasonmclucus/november_2007/al_gore_wrong_again.htm
Swiss Snow Makes 50-year Record
Expert: Switzerland has not received such a strong start to its winter ski season since 1952, with the amount of snow being swept to the southern areas by the wind cited as a particularly interesting feature of the weather.
http://www.fasttrackski.co.uk/ski-news/switzerland/swiss-snow-makes-50-year-record-200711151407.php
Blizzard cuts off villages in Serbia
Excerpt: Snow blizzards that continued for the third day have cut off a number of villages in central Serbia.(FoNet)Villages at the foot of Mt. Suvobor are the worst affected, reports say. No buses are traveling between the villages of Pranjani, Kamenica, Teoèin, Leu¹æi, Ko¹tuniæi and Brezna, and the nearest town of Gornji Milanovac, Beta has learned form the local bus company. A bus slid off the road in the area yesterday, due to high deposits of snow on the road surface, after which police blocked traffic on the regional route between Gornji Milanovac and Po¾ega in western Serbia. Snow is falling unabated for the third day. Drivers are advised to drive carefully and use winter equipment for their vehicles.
http://www.b92.net/eng/news/society-article.php?yyyy=2007&mm=11&dd=18&nav_id=45510
Snow snarls commute in New Jersey's northern counties
Excerpt: Commuters in New Jersey's northern most counties are getting a taste of winter weather. Snow is falling, slowing traffic on portions of Interstates 80 and 78. A snow advisory is in effect until 10 a.m. in Sussex, Warren and Morris counties. The National Weather Service says a trace to 2 inches of snow have fallen overnight. An additional inch or two are possible. http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/newjersey/ny-bc-nj--wintryweather1119nov19,0,4719983.story
PA Snow brings outages, varied accumulations
Excerpt: An early season snowfall brought a range of amounts to the region this morning, with the heaviest snowfall seen in the Pocono Mountains where 10 inches of snow was recorded in Monroe County's Tobyhanna Township. Other snowfall amounts recorded last night include .5 inches in Easton and 2.6 inches in Allentown.
http://www.mcall.com/news/local/all-snow-nov1907-cn,0,3237685.story
Heavy snow strands more than 100 tourists in China
Excerpt: More than 100 tourists were stranded in a county of southwest China's Yunnan Province by heavy snow as traffic had not resumed, local government said Saturday. The stranded tourists were in the Deqin county seat and some remote villages of the county where traffic was still cut off, said Adain, Deqin Tourism Bureau director. They were safe and had no problems with food, clothing and accommodation, said Adain. Heavy snow 40 centimeters deep hit the tourist county Wednesday to Friday, causing a cutoff of power, communications and roads in certain areas. Roads linking Deqin to the outside may be reopened by Sunday, according to the official. The county's diesel oil supply was tight, hindering efforts to clear snow and repair roads, the official said. In some areas the work has to rely all on hands due to lack of the fuel oil.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-11/17/content_7097030.htm
Heavy snow closes airports in NE China
Excerpt: Heavy snow in northeast China on Monday forced the closure of two major airports, disrupting the travel plans of more than 1,000 people. Taoxian International Airport in Shenyang, capital of Liaoning Province, and Taiping International Airport in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, were both closed at around 1 p.m., the Northeast China Air Traffic Control Center of the General Administration of Civil Aviation (CAAC) said.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-11/19/content_7106532.htm
Up to a foot of snow forecast in Idaho
Excerpt: You might want to give yourself some extra time if you're traveling Sunday night and Monday, especially if you're heading over the mountain passes. Snow has been falling on some of the higher elevations since early Sunday afternoon and it's expected to pile up. The heavy snow warning wasn't even in effect yet and the snow was coming down over Lookout Pass. It wasn't sticking to the roads in the early afternoon, but with so much snow expected, transportation crews say traveling could be treacherous tonight.A light dusting of snow decorated the hillside along Fourth of July Pass. But winter's beauty, can be winter's fury. Early Sunday afternoon, drivers were already being warned of slick spots on the roadway. With up to a foot of snow expected in some areas overnight, Idaho's Transportation Department says it has crews working around the clock, ready to go with the snow plows at a moments notice.
http://www.kxly.com/news/?sect_rank=1§ion_id=559&story_id=15965
Oregon sees up to 10 inches of snow
Excerpt: Chains are required for motorists traveling to Mount Hood on Highway 26.Salem-News.com(SALEM, Ore. ) - The National Weather Service has issued a Snow Advisory until 7:00 AM PST Monday for the north and central Oregon Cascades. Snow levels in the cascades overnight will range from 2,500 feet near Mount Hood to 3,000 feet in the Willamette Pass, and continue lower to 2,000 and 2,500 feet on Monday. Snow is expected to continue to fall throught the night, then diminish from north to south after midnight. Accumulations by late Sunday night are expected to range from 6 to 10 inches with the heaviest accumulations in the north. Snow showers on Monday will bring another 2 to 4 inches to the Cascades.
http://www.salem-news.com/articles/november182007/oregon_snow_111807.php
Wyoming sees 27 inches of snow
Excerpt: The Tetons received about a foot of snow in the higher elevations over the weekend, drawing skiers to the mountains and bringing opening day at area resorts closer. The Bridger-Teton National Forest Avalanche Center reported 5 inches of snow fell from Friday morning to Saturday morning and 7 inches from Saturday morning to Sunday morning at the Raymer study plot at 9,300 feet. The total snow depth there was 27 inches Sunday morning.
http://www.jacksonholenews.com/article.php?art_id=2436
Roads cleared after several inches of snow in UK
Roads are being cleared in central England after up to three inches of snow fell across the region. The Peak District in Derbyshire was the worst affected, but snow also settled in Warwickshire, Leicestershire, Bedfordshire, Sheffield and Birmingham. Rain and milder conditions are expected to clear much of the snow in time for the morning rush hour, according to weather forecasters.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/7101122.stm
New Hampshire Ski areas rejoicing with weekend snow
Excerpt: The first major snow of the season brought several inches to New Hampshire's mountains, allowing ski areas to open and raising hopes of snowmobilers who had a rough season last year. Alice Pearce of Ski NH, which represents several ski areas, says the first snow of the season is always something to get excited about. Waterville Valley and Bretton Woods ski areas are open, with Loon hoping to open on Wednesday.
http://www.wcax.com/Global/story.asp?S=7377805&nav=4QcS
Snow, ice cause accidents in Hungary
Excerpt: Snowing and icy roads have caused some 30 accidents in the country by Sunday noon, spokesman of the national disaster management authority Tibor Dobson told MTI. Cars, trucks and buses slid off the road and had to be rescued by the emergency services, mainly in the western parts of Hungary, where it snowed heavily on Sunday morning. A four-car pile up was reported from Veszprem County by Kislod, and a road accident in Vas County killed one, spokesperson for local police Katalin Peter told MTI. Ski resorts in the Bukk mountains (NE Hungary) reported 20 centimetres of snow on Sunday morning and said ski lifts were operating.
http://english.mti.hu/default.asp?menu=1&theme=2&cat=25&newsid=247791
Posted by Paul at 06:45 AM | Comments (53) | TrackBack
November 19, 2007
Japanese Whalers to Target Humpbacks
The Japanese whaling fleet set sail yesterday in defiance of international condemnation with plans to land what could be the biggest catch of minke and humpback whales since the 1960s.
As it has for more than two decades, the Japanese Government referred to the expedition as “scientific”. It is a description that infuriates anti-whaling activists. Whale meat harvested on the expeditions is sold on to the Japanese market and the profits used to fund “future research”.
From The Times: 'Japanese whalers raise stakes by targeting vulnerable humpbacks'
Posted by Paul at 06:21 PM | Comments (72) | TrackBack
Lord Nigel Lawson on 'The Politics and Economics of Climate Change'
Lord Nigel Lawson, former Chancellor of the Exchequer, prominent commentator on the Stern Report, and key member of the 2006 UK House of Lords Economics Committee Report into the Economics of Climate Change will speak on:
'The Politics and Economics of Climate Change'
Monday, November 26, 2007
12:00:00 PM - 2:00:00 PM
Four Seasons Hotel, 199 George Street, Sydney
$235 per person, table of 10 books available at $2,100
- contact Andy Poon at the IPA on 03 9600 4744.
I may be able to get you (and/or your partner) a ticket at half price, if you contact me in the next two days!
Email jennifermarohasy@jennifermarohasy.com
PS I will be there. :-)
Posted by jennifer at 03:41 PM | Comments (19) | TrackBack
November 18, 2007
Part 4 the of UN IPCC AR4 Climate Report Published: Synthesis or Synthetic?
The fourth and final part of the of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report has been published. The Summary for Policymakers of the Synthesis Report is available here or direct from the IPCC website.
The IPCC claim at least 90 per cent confidence in flawed computer modelled climate projections and that most of the warming in the past 50 years is due to human activity. Calls will be made for deep, damaging and costly cuts in CO2 emissions by developed nations, further underpinning the suspicion that the UN IPCC is more about wealth redistribution than climate change. The warnings from the likes of Prins and Rayner that the Kyoto Protocol was the wrong policy in the past, and is the wrong policy for the future, will go unheeded. Adaptation to inevitable, natural climate change and the development of secure energy sources is the only cost effective way forward in my view.
The highest solar activity for over 1000 years is already coming to an end and the next 11-year solar cycle is running late. The scene is set for a significant period of global cooling by 2020-30, yet our policymakers heed the false alarm call of continued warming by an IPCC that admits to a 'low' or 'very low' level of scientific understanding (LOSU) of the link between solar factors and climate.
The UK Government has published a very foolish, unilateral climate change bill which aims to cut the UK's 2 per cent contribution to global man-made CO2 emissions by 60 per cent. King Canute must be turning in his grave.
Anyway, enough of what I think for now - post your own thoughts or analyses below.
Regards,
Paul Biggs
Posted by Paul at 01:13 AM | Comments (149) | TrackBack
November 16, 2007
Gilbert’s Potoroo to Survive Syphilis?
I’ve never seen a Potoroo – apparently members of the genus look like rats and can hop like kangaroos.
The Gilbert’s Potoroo is Australia’s most endangered marsupial and it's not climate change but rather syphilis that may result in its extinction. At least that’s what an ABC Online article suggests, but when you read a bit further there is reason for optimism because there is a syphilis-free population on Bald Island.
Read more here: http://www.abc.net.au/science/news/stories/2007/2089599.htm
Thanks to both Libby and Woody for the link.
And here’s a link to the Gilbert’s Potoroo’s Action Group website: http://www.potoroo.org/
Posted by jennifer at 09:44 PM | Comments (24) | TrackBack
Murray River Tributary Reduced to Billabongs
While the Murray River is flowing strongly despite the drought, many of its tributaries are drying up.
Yesterday I visited the Wakool River with Wakool Landholders Association Chairman John Lolicato.
He showed me a spot downstream of Gee Gee bridge where there is still water in deep holes. A bit upstream the river has been reduced to billabongs and further upstream in Possum forest some of the billabongs have dried up.
Downstream of Gee Gee bridge
A billabong that was Wakool river
John has moved some Murray Cod from drying billabongs to larger water holes.
John looking for some water and stranded fish
Also yesterday, the NSW Minister for Climate Change, Environment and Water Phil Koperberg announced that a pulse of water would be released into the Wakool River to provide stock and domestic water and environmental benefits.
Mr Koperberg acknowledged that the Wakool River had not had flows for months due to the severe and extended drought.
“The diversion of water into these systems will provide landholders with access to stock and domestic water for the first time in months, help improve water quality and provide significant environmental benefits to stressed populations of native fish and other aquatic species,” he said.
“The water cannot be used for irrigation and additional deliveries for irrigation are not viable as they would exacerbate additional water losses that cannot be supported.”
Posted by jennifer at 07:10 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack
Did the Bush Administration Really Censor Science?
Once again, the press is in a tizzy over the Bush Administration’s “censoring of science.” The case against the Bush Administration this time is that it edited testimony presented to the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee (EPW) by Julie Gerberding, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The testimony, originally 14 pages, was cut to six.
However, the narrative of a scientific cover-up is overwrought to say the least. The hearing was on the potential impact of global warming on human health, an exercise in speculation. It appears, if press accounts are correct, that what the Bush Administration cut from the director’s testimony was more speculation than settled science.
Read the entire article: Science vs. Expert Opinion: Did the Bush Administration Really Censor Science?
Posted by Paul at 05:55 PM | Comments (25) | TrackBack
Praying Mantid
I photographed this praying mantid last night on the flowers of a Wax Jambu Syzygium samarangense. There are around 160 described species of mantid in Australia with the greatest diversity in the tropics.
This large, robust female will produce a soft, foam-like oöthecae that hardens under atmospheric exposure. It may contain hundreds of eggs, each individually housed in a sealed compartment and a day or so after emerging, the nymphs begin to cannibalise one another.
Posted by neil at 07:01 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack
November 15, 2007
A Review of Sea-Level Change on the Southeast Coast of Australia
A revised Holocene sea-level curve for the southeast coast of New South Wales, Australia, is presented
based on a review of previously published geochronological results for fossil molluscs, organic-rich
mud, mangrove roots and fixed biological indicators. It is supplemented by new radiocarbon and amino acid
racemization-derived ages on fossil molluscs from transgressive sandsheet facies in back-barrier settings within
shallow incised valleys along the southern coast of New South Wales. This data base has been limited to fossils
with accurate descriptions of their facies associations and stratigraphic relationships to present mean sea
level. Results show that sea level during the Holocene marine transgression rose to between −15 and −11 m at
9400–9000 cal. yr BP. Sea level then rose to approximately −5 m by 8500 cal. yr BP and to approximately
−3.5 m between 8300 and 8000 cal. yr BP inundating shallow incised valleys resulting in the deposition of
shell-rich transgressive sandsheets within shallow incised bedrock valleys. Present sea level was attained
between 7900 and 7700 cal. yr BP, approximately 700–900 years earlier than previously proposed. Sea level
continued to rise to between +1 and +1.5 m between 7700 and 7400 cal. yr BP, followed by a sea-level highstand that lasted until about 2000 cal. yr BP followed by a gradual fall to present. A series of minor negative
and positive oscillations in relative sea level during the late-Holocene sea-level highstand appear to be superimposed over the general sea-level trend. However, the precise nature of the oscillations are difficult to quantify because of problems associated with accurately determining palaeotidal and wave regimes, climatic
conditions and the antecedent morphology of the shallow marine environments during the mid Holocene.
Holocene sea-level change on the southeast coast of Australia: a review
Craig R. Sloss
School of Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong NSW 2522, Australia, c.r.sloss@massey.ac.nz
The Holocene, Vol. 17, No. 7, 999-1014 (2007)DOI: 10.1177/0959683607082415
Colin V. Murray-Wallace
School of Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong NSW 2522, Australia
Brian G. Jones
School of Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong NSW 2522, Australia
Posted by Paul at 08:42 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack
Russia Facing the Worst Ecological Catastrophe Since Chernobyl? A Note from Ann Novek
30,000 sea birds found dead on the beaches plus at least the same number of birds oil soaked and facing death. A number of dead dolphins are now found dead on the beaches as well. This might have been the biggest ecological catastrophe facing Russia since the Chernobyl catastrophe states one newspaper:
Los Angeles Times: 'Russian workers point to oil as the problem'
Posted by Paul at 08:18 PM | Comments (24) | TrackBack
Ocean Circulation Reversal Melts Arctic Sea Ice
Melting Arctic Ocean sea ice may have been caused by a reversal in the ocean's circulation that had been going on for about a decade, scientists from NASA and the University of Colorado said.
Rocky Mountain News: 'Ocean circulation may contribute to warming'
Posted by Paul at 05:57 PM | Comments (25) | TrackBack
Australians Named World's Number One Emitters
A study of the world's power stations has shown the extent to which developed countries produce more carbon dioxide per head than emerging economies.
Australians were found to be the world's worst polluters per capita, producing five times as much carbon from generating power as China.
The US came second with eight tonnes of carbon per head - 16 times more than that produced by India.
BBC News website: 'Australians named worst emitters'
Posted by Paul at 05:51 PM | Comments (17) | TrackBack
As the Sun Goes Down, it's Solar v CO2 : Which One Will Win?
Two events loom on the horizon that might settle the issue once and for all; one shaped by human hands, one entirely natural.
At Cern, the giant European physics facility, an experiment called Cloud is being constructed which will research the notion that cosmic rays can stimulate the formation of droplets and clouds. There may be some results within three or four years.
By then, observations suggest that the Sun's output may have started to wane from its "grand maximum".
If it does, and if Henrik Svensmark is right, we should then see cosmic rays increase and global temperatures start to fall; if that happens, he can expect to see a Nobel Prize and thousands of red-faced former IPCC members queuing up to hand back the one they have just received.
But if the Sun wanes and temperatures on our planet continue to rise, as the vast majority of scientists in the field believe, the solar-cosmic ray concept of global warming can be laid to eternal rest.
BBC News website: Sun and global warming: A cosmic connection?
Posted by Paul at 07:45 AM | Comments (36) | TrackBack
November 14, 2007
Europe: Delay in Autumn Leaf Colour Caused by Increased CO2, not Global Warming
The delay in autumnal leaf coloration and leaf fall in trees is caused by rising levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere and not by increased global temperatures, suggests a new study by researchers at the University of Southampton.
In recent years, woodland autumnal colour changes have been occurring later in the season whilst re-greening in spring has been occurring earlier. During the last 30 years across Europe, autumnal senescence – the process of plant aging where leaves discolour and then fall – has been delayed by 1.3 - 1.8 days a decade. To date, this has been explained by global warming, with increasing temperatures causing longer growing seasons.
However, while a strong correlation has been observed between increased global temperatures and earlier spring re-greening and bud break, the correlation between autumn leaf colour change and fall and temperature trends in 14 European countries is weak.
Over the 30 years that progressive delays in autumnal senescence have been observed, atmospheric CO2 has risen by 13.5 per cent. Experimental studies show that increased atmospheric CO2 affects plant physiology and function, influencing a myriad of processes.
The Southampton researchers undertook two large forest ecosystem experiments in which poplar (Populus) trees in separate plots were exposed to either ambient or elevated levels of CO2 from planting to maturity. The elevated concentration was at 550 parts per million, proposed as representative of concentrations that may occur in 2050. Changes in the tree canopy were measured by remote sensing.
The trees exposed to elevated CO2 retained their leaves for longer and also experienced a smaller decline in end of season chlorophyll content, resulting in a greener autumn canopy relative to that in ambient CO2.
Professor Gail Taylor, of the University’s School of Biological Sciences, explains:
‘The research data provide compelling evidence in terms of both the leaf and canopy that autumnal senescence in such forest ecosystems will be delayed as the atmospheric concentration of CO2 continues to rise, independent of increased temperatures.
‘Photosynthesis and canopy greenness are maintained for longer in elevated CO2. This is because a CO2 rich atmosphere allows the tree to generate carbon rich compounds that are known to prolong the life of leaves. These compounds may have a positive effect for carbon balance and stress tolerance but may also have a negative effect on the control of dormancy.
‘When trees keep their leaves for longer, they continue to photosynthesise but trees also need to set bud and if they don’t do that, it makes them susceptible to frost and other weather events. A key question now is whether we should be selecting trees which are better adapted to coping with increasing levels of CO2, perhaps considering different varieties and species to plant, rather than using locally sourced seed, as is current practice,’ she continues.
The study also provides the first insight into changes in the genetic make-up of Populus that can account for this shift to delayed senescence. Using cDNA microarrays, the researchers looked at approximately 20,000 genes and have identified a suite of genes that are switched on during delayed senescence in elevated CO2.
News Release from the University of Southampton:
Posted by Paul at 05:55 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
Latest Climate News Round Up from Marc Morano
One analysis by CRA International estimates the Lieberman-Warner bill will cost $4 to $6 trillion over 40 years. The American Council for Capital Formation has concluded that the legislation's emissions-swapping scheme would lead to "higher energy prices, lost jobs and reduced [gross domestic product]." During testimony before a House committee, Peter Orszag, director of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), stated that such swapping programs known as "cap-and-trade" would create "windfall" profits - profits that have even been denounced by presidential candidate John Edwards. The CBO has also cautioned that "price increases would disproportionately affect people at the lower end of the income scale." It is baffling that congressional Democrats, who never cease to spout their populist rhetoric, are ignoring such a clarion call for ensuring economic stability among low and middle-income families. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan in his new book, "The Age of Turbulence," described how these programs have unintended effects when he wrote that "[c]ap-and-trade systems or carbon taxes are likely to be popular only until real people lose real jobs as their consequence. There is no effective way to meaningfully reduce emissions without negatively impacting a large part of an economy," he argued. Democrats in Congress would do well to listen to Mr. Greenspan's cogent views. The rhetoric surrounding the issue of greenhouse gases has been fraught with emotion rather than reason.
Senate Climate Bill Will Cost Trillions for No Benefit, Says The Washington Times Editorial:
Small island states meeting in the Maldives in the Indian Ocean this week are working on a resolution saying that climate change is a threat to human rights.
Reuters: Is climate change “human rights abuse”?
Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- American officials are planning to back a new United Nations document that says governments and businesses will have to spend billions of dollars a year to reduce global warming and adapt to its effects.
UN Panel's Global Warming Report May Win U.S. Support (Update1)
The ocean's plankton can suck up far more airborne carbon dioxide (CO2) than previously realised, although the marine ecoystem may suffer damage if this happens, a new study into global warming says.
The sea has soaked up nearly half of the CO2 that has been emitted by fossil fuels since the start of the Industrial Revolution.
Global warming: Oceans could absorb far more CO2, says study
Reading about the recent global warming rally at Kincaid Park, I wondered if the participants would be relieved if man's activities were proved not responsible for Alaska's warming weather. An intriguing question.
Despite predictions, sky is not falling
The IPCC's Assessment Report will tell policy-makers what to expect from man-made climate change. It is the result of rigorous and painstaking labour: more than can be said for the other Nobel Prize winner. The difference between Gore's claims and IPCC research is instructive.
Ignore Al Gore - but not his Nobel friends
By Bjorn Lomborg
Posted by Paul at 03:29 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
The IPCC's Level of Scientific Ignorance
We should always begin our scientific pronouncements with this statement: "At our present level of ignorance, we think we know...," John Christy.
Read John Christy's viewpoint article on the BBC News Website:
No consensus on IPCC's level of ignorance
Read an alternative view from Martin Parry on the BBC News website:
Posted by Paul at 03:08 AM | Comments (30) | TrackBack
November 13, 2007
Update on Whaling in Iceland - A Note from Ann Novek
International media reported back in August that Iceland will not issue new whaling permits for commercial whaling next season due to a “ lack of markets and demand”. Unfortunately for the whales , the Icelandic Government did a turn –around some weeks later and extended the commercial whaling season to November 1st , allowing whalers to kill the 23 minkes from last years quota.
It’s unclear what caused the turn-around , but according to the Foreign Minister “ whaling is a matter of compromises” . The Foreign Minister is herself opposed to whaling.
According to the Minke Whaler’s Association ,
The hunting did go well and the purchase of whale meat has never gone better since the resumption of whaling in 2003. All meat from the 45 minkes that have been killed during 2007 has been sold out and no more whale meat will not be available in the stores until next spring when commercial whaling starts again. ( Note this is VERY surprising that the Whaler’s Association states that commercial whaling will resume again next season).
Icelandic export market to Japan
In an article that has been published on mbl.is , is an agreement on export of whale meat from Iceland to Japan soon finished. Probably it’s about whale meat from last year’s hunt as well as from future hunts. This announcement comes from an interview with the Icelandic Fisheries Minister and a Japanese news agency.
According to the Whaler’s Association “ one should welcome the decision that Iceland and Japan have agreed on to resume trade in whale products , as there seems to be a market in Japan. In this interview it’s again stated that whaling permits will be issued for the next season, which resumes in the middle of of next year. However, the quotas will only be issued if there is a market.
Tourist industry
The Icelandic tourist numbers increased despite worries that commercial whaling should have a negative impact on numbers. From a report from the Icelandic Tourist Council , has never so many tourists visited Iceland as this summer. Despite of threats from NGOs.
In the first 9 months of this year, 379 000 tourists arrived to Keflavik Airport. This is an increase with 16,5 %. This is contrary to the prognosis that the tourist industry and the NGOs made. So it seems like commercial whaling has had no negative impact on tourism?
The Icelandic Minke Whaler’s Association makes finally this statement , “ they who claim that we sacrify bigger interests ( whale watching, my note) for lesser( whaling) , must now reconsider their arguments. Whalers claim as well that whaling has made Iceland more familiar and famous? for tourists , that’s why there has been an increase in numbers of tourists.
Posted by Paul at 10:06 PM | Comments (31) | TrackBack
What do 'Climate Sceptics' Really Believe?
Richard Black from the BBC News website sent out a questionnaire to climate sceptic groups in order to test the alternative 'consensus.' He is now able to report the results:
What do "climate sceptics" believe?
Despite having reported on climate change for more than a decade, I realised at the beginning of the year that I was not entirely sure.
Read 'Unravelling the sceptics'
See also 'Climate scepticism: The top 10'
Posted by Paul at 03:24 AM | Comments (44) | TrackBack
November 10, 2007
After the ‘Top Island’ Fire in the Barmah Red Gum Forest
Aborigines managed much of the Australian landscape with fire. This management strategy favoured fire tolerant and fire resistant species – perhaps why gum trees dominate so much of the Australian landscape. But river red gums, Eucalyptus camaldulensis ssp., unlike most gum trees, are not particularly fire tolerant.
A boat on the Murray River in the Barmah Forest. Photograph taken last Tuesday.*
The timber cutters and cattlemen who live and work along the middle Murray (river) have gone to great lengths to keep fuel-loads in red gum forests low through controlled grazing and the collection of firewood. This, combined with a network of rural fire fighting brigades, has made it possible to stomp out fires started from lightening strikes or camp fires.
This may explain why some foresters and aboriginal elders call river red gums ‘white fellas’ weed’ and why areas which were once open woodland are now covered in dense red gum forests including at Barmah.
This area in Barmah Forest was once known as Duck Hole Plains
But the situation is changing. The Victorian Environmental Assessment Council (VEAC) wants more wood and grass on the forest floor apparently to increase biodiversity. This means higher fuel loads and according to some white fellas** the forests will ultimately be severely degraded by uncontrolled and uncontrollable feral fires.
A wildfire in the Barmah Forest, in an area known as Top Island, burnt out 800 hectares last October.
Burnt forest at Top Island in October 2006, photograph taken Tuesday November 6, 2007.
Old habitat trees are apparently the first to go when a hot wildfire burns through red gum forest. Last week the Barmah woodcutters showed me how the old trees ‘burnt like chimneys’ from the inside – out.
Parts of ‘Top Island’ look like they are regenerating. But I’m told that the green coppice growth will eventually fall off – that these fire-damaged trees will never develop as habitat trees. Habitat trees have hollows for wildlife.
Coppice and a burnt-out old habitat tree.
Where the forest has been completely burnt, for example after the sand-spit fire of the late 1960s, and where there has been no management, the red gum regrowth can be very dense.
Regrowth from the 1968 Sand-spit fire, Photograph taken November 6, 2007.
-------------------
* All the photographs in this blog post were taken in Barmah forest last Tuesday - on Melbourne cup day.
** I use the term 'white fellas' to refer to the guardians of traditional European knowledge in the Barmah forest.
Posted by jennifer at 03:14 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack
Glacier Dynamics and Why Greenland Not in Danger of Collapse
Dear Jennifer,
Professor Ollier takes on James Hansen's claim that the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are in danger of collapse due to global warming. Hansen's claims are the basis for Al Gore's suggestion, in An Inconventient Truth, that the seas may rise by 20 feet in the near future.
Professor Ollier argues that, "Hansen's seeming ignorance of the mechanism by which glaciers flow leads him into major errors."
You may have seen Professor Cliff Ollier's write up of glacier dynamics originally circulated by Benny Peiser's excellent CCNet newsletter. The Center for Science & Public Policy has published a paper adapted from the original article with expanatory footnotes and diagram added to clarify some of the more technical parts of the article.
This paper describes glacier dynamics, such as the glacier budget, how glaciers flow (through a process known as "creep"), how creep is related to temperature and stress, and how the simple rules of creep allow us to understnad some observations of glaciers.
We hope you find this paper useful.
http://ff.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=396&Itemid=77
Paul Georgia
Center for Science & Public Policy
Frontiers of Freedom
Posted by jennifer at 12:01 PM | Comments (79) | TrackBack
Bias and Concealment in the IPCC Process
The climatic “hockey stick” hypothesis has systemic problems. I review how the IPCC came to adopt the “hockey stick” as scientific evidence of human interference with the climate. I report also on independent peer reviewed studies of the “hockey stick” that were instigated by the US House of Representatives in 2006, and which comprehensively invalidated it. The “divergence” problem and the selective and unreliable nature of tree ring reconstructions are discussed, as is the unsatisfactory review process of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report that ignored the invalidation of the “hockey stick”. The error found recently in the GISS temperature series is also noted. It is concluded that the IPCC has neither the structure nor the necessary independence and supervision of its processes to be acceptable as the monopoly authority on climate science. Suggestions are made as to how the IPCC could improve its procedures towards producing reports and recommendations that are more scientifically sound.
Continue reading: BIAS AND CONCEALMENT IN THE IPCC PROCESS: THE “HOCKEY-STICK” AFFAIR AND ITS IMPLICATIONS by David Holland
Posted by Paul at 12:47 AM | Comments (30) |