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June 17, 2008
The Only Way is UP: Reality Trumps Emissions Projections
Posted by Paul, at 05:00 PM
There is a new paper (in press) in the journal Climatic Change by Peter Sheenan of the Centre for Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University, Melbourne, Australia entitled: 'The new global growth path: implications for climate change analysis and policy'
The Abstract states:
In recent years the world has moved to a new path of rapid global growth, largely driven by the developing countries, which is energy intensive and heavily reliant on the use of coal—global coal use will rise by nearly 60% over the decade to 2010. It is likely that, without changes to the policies in place in 2006, global CO2 emissions from fuel combustion would nearly double their 2000 level by 2020 and would continue to rise beyond 2030. Neither the SRES marker scenarios nor the reference cases assembled in recent studies using integrated assessment models capture this abrupt shift to rapid growth based on fossil fuels, centred in key Asian countries. While policy changes must and will occur, the realism of the reference case is critical for analysis and policy formulation. Using such a reference path will have significant effects on impact and damage estimates, on the analysis of achievable stabilisation paths and on estimates of the costs of achieving stabilisation at a given GHG concentration level. Use of a realistic reference path is also essential for the international negotiations, arising out of the COP13 meeting in Bali, to achieve widely desired stabilisation goals: both the level of emission reductions to be achieved, and the preferred distribution of those reductions over countries and regions, will be heavily influenced by the reference case assumed.
Meanwhile, China has clearly overtaken the United States as the world’s leading emitter of carbon dioxide, a new study has found, its emissions increasing 8 percent in 2007. The Chinese increase accounted for two-thirds of the growth in the year’s global greenhouse gas emissions.
As UK Aussie Rolf Harris would say, "Can you tell what it is yet?"
Hat tip to Prometheus.
Posted by Paul at June 17, 2008 05:00 PM
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Comments
One thing to remain very aware of; if ACO2 causes AGW, whatever we do to correct it will be like pissing into the wind.
Posted by: spangled drongo at June 17, 2008 06:18 PM
Agreed!
Posted by: Paul Biggs at June 17, 2008 07:40 PM
Let's remember, coal mining saved the trees, inspite of the Sierra Club, not because of them.
Posted by: James Mayeau at June 18, 2008 07:08 AM
I couldn't have put it better than the first post to the Prometheus blog to which you link ...
"So CO2 concentrations have increased much faster than anticipated since 2000. Yet during that same time, there has been no increase in temperature? Perhaps even a decrease in temperature?
"Doesn't this news on CO2 present a challenge to those who are predicting serious problems, if not out right disasters?"
Posted by: John at June 18, 2008 07:04 PM
Posted by: Luk at August 30, 2008 12:25 AM