Wheat Works through Weather Worries

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The drought gripping much of western NSW is turning into one of the longest in recorded history. 

There was flooding in the Hunter and Central Coast, including Newcastle, in  early June and I thought perhaps this was a sign the drought was breaking, particularly given talk of a developing La Nina.  

Winter crops were planted with much hope, but now they are withering – there are failed wheat crops across NSW.
Experts will tell you that if drought-breaking rain does not come in autumn, then the next likely period is late spring after the equinox.  The current La Nina is gathering strength, so perhaps there will be good late spring rain.

If rain fails again this next year, I would still hesitate to put it down to global warming or suggest, as some have, the solution is signing the Kyoto Protocol. 

When the situation is desperate we are probably more susceptible to scare mongering but it will not help with rational decision making.

The Weatherwatchdog, Don White, suggested in his column on September 27 (The Land, p75) there were similarities now to conditions in the 1920s and 1930s. He also stated that it was drier during the first half of last century than what we have experienced in the past 30 years. 

Some city folk suggest failed wheat crops are a sign of inappropriate intensive European agricultural techniques and if farmers only planted more native trees the situation would somehow improve.  

This myth ignores the tremendous increases in wheat yields in NSW in the past century, in particular in the past 20 years as a result of innovations such as high-yielding varieties, rotation with canola and improved management with nutrition and diseases. 

It is impossible to grow wheat in NSW without some winter rain but there are future innovations that could improve yields if rainfall is on average 10 to15 per cent lower in the next few decades as suggested by Mr White.  

I am thinking in particular of the drought-tolerant genetically modified wheat varieties currently under development in South Australia and Victoria.

There is currently a “climate crisis” in our wheat belt – but it won’t be fixed through carbon trading or donations to Greenpeace. 

Published in The Land

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